Monumental Senate development: Pete Domenici is retiring

New Mexico's Pete Domenici had been on the retirement watch list since the beginning of the 2008 cycle, but he had fallen off everyone's radar. Bush had even traveled to New Mexico to raise money for him a few weeks ago, which had further cemented the impression that Domenici will be running for re-election. But today comes news that Domenici, 75, will announce tomorrow that he is not running again in 2008.

Domenici will surely spin this decision based on his age, his health problems, but make no mistake about it: the allegations of unethical conduct surrounding his behavior in the attorney firing scandal had taken a significant toll on the long-term usually popular incumbent, whose approval rating had fallen to a low of 41% in the latest SUSA poll. I had ranked New Mexico the 11th most vulnerable seat in my last Senate rankings, specifying that the race could very well go further up if Democrats find a decent candidate. Today's announcement is likely to make New Mexico one of the hottest races of the cycle.

Democrats actually have to be considered slight favorites given how weak their bench is in New Mexico. Republicans could run one of their two house members: Rep. Wilson and Rep. Steve Pearce. The huge problem with Wilson is that she is involved in the same exact scandal that pushed Domenici toward the exit, so it would be ironic if she ended up with the nod. It would also allow Democrats to blast her on ethics. Also, Wilson represents the very tight district NM-1, and won her re-election race in 2006 in one of the most contested and tightest races in the country. Running Wilson in an uncertain Senate race would thus open up a very vulnerable House seat as well. On the other hand, Pearce is much more conservative than Wilson - perhaps too much to win a statewide race in New Mexico.

Democrats have a longer list to choose from: Rep. Tom Udall, former U.S. Attorney John Kelly, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, and former Attorney General Patricia Madrid. Madrid lost that 2006 House race against Wilson because of an awful debate performance Wilson used repeatedly on the air, so it is unclear whether Democrats want to go down that path again. There already is a candidate in the race, self-funding businessman Don Wiviott.

Democrats would make sure this seat falls in their hands if they could somehow convince Governor Bill Richardson to quit his run for the White House and jump in the Senate. Richardson is very popular in his state, and is a second-tier candidate in the presidential race, so he could want to get a sure job in Washington rather than continue his presidential quest. Yet, he also is unlikely to do so for now because he has managed to get in solid double-digits in Iowa and New Hampshire -- setting up a possible surprise finish in the caucuses that could make him a top-tier contender if Obama or Clinton slip-up. Also, Richardson has had so many jobs already (Secretary of Energy, UN Ambassador, NM Governor, House Rep.), does he really want to now be in the Senate?

Overall, this is brilliant news for Democrats, who now have one more race that looks like a great pick-up opportunity. While they are still very far from being allowed to think of a 60 seat majority, they are setting themselves up for a stellar 2008 Senate cycle.