New union endorsement: Hillary building up momentum

In the wake of the first poll national poll with Hillary Clinton breaking 50% in the primary numbers, and also in the wake of Clinton's having finally outraised Barack Obama in the third quarter, there is a sense that Clinton is building up a sense of inevitability again. It is this feeling that Obama had successfully managed to perforate in the first half of the year by bursting out of nowhere, challenging Clinton, and repeatedly overtaking her in polls and in fundraising. There was a feeling that Obama might very well do the unthinkable and take down the ultra-favorite.

No more. Hillary is on top of the polls, on top of fundraising, and in complete control of her campaign. She has not flinched in the debates, has withstood all the attacks with barely a scratch. This is not to say that Hillary has wrapped up the nomination, not at all. She is basically tied in Iowa, and a misstep there could open the whole race wide open and give Obama a huge opening to win New Hampshire and South Carolina and be the nominee. But it does mean that until that misstep finally happens, Clinton will enjoy all the advantages of a mega-frontrunner, namely institutional support! Everyone wants to donate or support the winner, so Hillary will benefit from increasing amounts of money (as everyone wants to donate to a frontrunner), and endorsements!

Already, many unions that would have endorsed John Edwards if his campaign had been going better have either aligned behind Hillary or chosen to stay out of the process for now. What is the use of going behind someone who is so likely to lose the nomination, they might ask themselves?

And this morning, Hillary picked up yet another endorsement: the American Federation of Teachers, a large union with 1.4 million members. The press release emphasized repeatedly the words strength and leader, and promised that the union would help Clinton in her nomination fight:

The AFT endorsement activates the union's considerable member education and political mobilization program on behalf of the endorsed candidate. The AFT immediately will put in motion a grass-roots campaign to engage its members throughout the country to help nominate Hillary Clinton.

With stories like this, the Clinton campaign can transform the sense of inevitability into more positive news cycles, generating more momentum, more endorsements... It is this cycle that Obama and Edwards will have to figure out how to break before it is too late, before Clinton gets herself so far in front that even an Iowa loss would not threaten her.