10.06.2007

Evening roundup on a rather slow news day

After a few particularly intense days of political news, particularly in senatorial races, this Saturday is uncharacteristically slow. Here are a few things that have come out today, or that I did not have time to evoke during the week given all the other more urgent developments.

  • Clinton, Giuliani leading in new national poll
A new AP-Ipsos poll today tests the national primary numbers. The numbers are quite usual: Hillary Clinton has a huge lead, and Rudy Giuliani is on top of a very muddy Republican field. Nothing worth reporting, but on a slow day like this one...
  • Clinton with 46% is far ahead of Barack Obama's 25%. John Edwards goes way down at 9%. No one else crosses 2%.
  • The Republican race has Giuliani at 27%, ahead of Fred Thompson's 23%, John McCain's 13%, Mitt Romney's 11% and Mike Huckabee's 7%.
A few notes: Clinton is increasingly flirting with the 50% bar (that she crossed for the first time earlier this week), and Edwards looks increasingly weaker. It is very rare for him to poll in the single-digits. On the Republican side, Huckabee is definitely picking up steam -- but how far can he go given that he only raised $1 million in the third quarter, five times less than Ron Paul?

  • Rudy's past, Revelation 3029
Rudy is going to have to find a way to not be systematically called out for his stunning flip-flop from flaming liberal to outraged conservative. That storyline is being increasingly integrated in news article, and is bound to have an effect sooner or later in the level of support he gets from party activists (check yesterday's entry on Romney and Giuliani's past coming back to haunt them for more background).

The latest example is an AP piece that describes Giuliani's attacks on Clinton, who he compared to 1972 Democratic nominee McGovern for her "baby bonds" proposal to give every American $5000. Giuliani said, "It's interesting that Hillary is taking something from the George McGovern playbook." The AP article then goes on to say:

In the 1972 election, Giuliani liked McGovern and his ideas enough to vote for him for president.

No further comment needed on this one.

  • Pressure on Larry Craig
A few days after it became clear that Larry Craig had no intention of resigning, Republicans are upping the pressure on the Idaho Senator to try and force him out. First out with a call for Craig to reconsider was NRSC Chairman Ensign. Then, Senator Brownback joined the mix, saying that the Senate might censure Craig -- though he was magnanimous enough to admit they were not likely to carry out a full expulsion. To be fair to Brownback, he also admitted that this should also lead to a censure against Vitter. Even Idaho Republicans joined in the Republican chorus.

At the same time, Mitch McConnell evoked the possibility of an investigation by the Senate Ethics Committee with hearings open to the public. Only, Craig probably realizes that such hearings would be as embarrassing for the party than they would be for him. It seems the Republican leadership in the Senate is already starting the motions of such an investigation -- though we are yet a far cry from open hearings.

Craig does have a few friends left, however, most notably fellow Idaho Senator Crapo and Utah Senator Orrin Hatch. These two are apparently encouraging Craig to fight to get his committee assignments back. Craig had been forced to step down from them in late August shortly after the scandal broke. Such a move by Craig would be sure to divide the GOP caucus even more, and offer the perfect opening for Idaho Democrat Larry LaRocco.

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