Evening polls from the early states

Insider Advantage came out with many polls from the 5 early voting states (except Nevada, which, for some reason, is never polled). Let's look at the GOP numbers first:

• In Iowa, Romney has the lead at 24%. He is followed by Giuliani at 16%. Huckabee holds on to great numbers with 13%, tied with Thompson. McCain is 5th at 10%.
• In New Hampshire, Romney is ahead as well with 28%. Giuliani has 20%. McCain confirms his re-birth with 17%. Huckabee and Thompson are tied again at 8%.
• In Michigan, the four major candidates are basically tied: 19% for Giuliani, 16% for Romney, 15% for McCain, and 14% for Thompson.
  
• South Carolina is Thompson's saving grace with 21%. Romney is surprisingly second at 16%, tied with Giuliani and McCain. Huckabee has 11%.
• Florida sees a Giuliani lead: 29% against Thompson's 19%, Romney's 16% and McCain's 10%.

These numbers are roughly in line with the ARG numbers from last week in which Romney leads in IA, NH and SC. While he does not lead in SC in this poll, he still is in a surprisingly good position. All in all, this confirms the basic strategy of the Romney campaign. I have outlined it countless of times, but here it is again: As long as Romney wins Iowa, even a small lead in New Hampshire will allow him to carry his momentum there and pull of a win. And he is strong enough in Michigan and now South Carolina that wins in IA and NH would propel him to first place there... allowing him to sweep the tables and run to the nomination.

Giuliani's strategy of surviving January and sweeping February 5th states would only work if Romney lost at least one of the early states, and if Giuliani came in consistently strong behind to remain in the storyline. These numbers suggest he could potentially do it, but look at how close Huckabee and McCain are in Iowa and New Hampshire. Giuliani's survival strategy is very risky. A small slip-up and the press will write his obituary and he will have no chance in the February 5th states.

Insider Advantage only polled South Carolina and Florida on the Democratic side. Clinton leads in both (I am unable to find Edwards' numbers):

• In South Carolina, which was supposed to be very dangerous territory for Clinton, sees a small 35-28 lead for Clinton and Obama. Obama leads among the all-important African-American by 44% against 36%.
• In Florida, Clinton leads by a massive 33 points: 53% to 20%.

The key state to look at is South Carolina: This is where Obama will need to make a second statement if he manages to pull off a win in Iowa. He looks to be behind consistently, but is in striking distance of Clinton so that he would be in a position to take the lead if he has success in the early state. One question is whether Obama might be able to win South Carolina and make a run for the nomination if he does not win Iowa or New Hampshire. It does look like Clinton would just increase her lead and momentum with earlier wins, but there is enough space for NH and SC to make this scenario possible. Obama is putting a lot of attention on SC, aware of the state's importance for his campaign. As for Florida, it is, as always, Clinton's firewall. She is strong enough there to pull of a win even if anything goes disastrously.