Are Democrats being too optimistic in assessing Senate races?

After the phenomenal streak of good news Democrats enjoyed in Senate races over the past months, they were bound to see their optimism contradicted at some point. And the past 24 hours suggests that the field isn't as unproblematically rosy as Democrats like to think.

First, the Colorado Senate race. Many Democrats like to think that this race is in the bag, or that it leans towards their candidate, Rep. Mark Udall. It is an open seat in a state which has gone Democratic in recent congressional elections (Democrats picked-up 2 open House seats, an open Senate seat and an open governorship in 2004 and 2006), and their candidate is seen as solid. I myself ranked the Colorado race as the second most vulnerable seat in my latest Senate rankings.

Yet, a new poll shows this race is much closer than expected. The Economic Development Council of Colorado (I am unable to find any indication that they are a partisan group) commissioned a survey to pollster Floyd Ciruli. Udall at 36% and Bob Schaffer at 35% are virtually tied. Walt Klein from the Shaffer campaign comments, "It's like a cold bucket of water in the faces of Democrats."

Before Democrats panic, here is a big caveat. 21% of undecided in a poll is a very high percentage, even this early in the race. And independents - presumably group that accounts for most of the poll's undecided - are the group which allowed Democrats to post such strong victories in 2004 and 2006. If they aren't pushed at all, we shouldn't expect either candidate to have a strong lead. In other words, this poll is not very significant. It nevertheless undermines the Democratic confidence in the Colorado Senate race. We should wait for confirmation from more prestigious polling forms that push undecideds to express some preference to have a better idea of where the race stands.

Next up, New Mexico. It's only been two days since news broke of Pete Domenici's resignation, but potential candidates are letting their intentions known quickly. Yesterday, Rep. Heather Wilson announced she would seek the Republican nomination, which is great news for the GOP. Wilson brings a lot of baggage to the race, but she is also the strongest candidate Republicans have to try and keep the seat. And since Wilson announced, two of the Democrats' strongest hopes have declared they will pass on the race.

The first is Governor Bill Richardson, though that is not a blow to Democrats since it was always very unlikely Richardson would drop his presidential campaign to jump in the Senate race. Richardson made sure to squash any speculation as quickly as he could so as not to hurt his presidential campaign. One of his advisers told CNN, “Gov. Richardson is running for the White House unequivocally, and we are going to be the Democratic nominee." After all, Richardson has a pretty good job to fall-back on if he fails to become the nominee. The second is more surprising. Representative Tom Udall (first cousin of Colorado's Mark Udall) was expected to run, but he told the Albuquerque Journal he did not want to leave the House and the Appropriations Committee.

Democrats still have plenty of candidates they can run as they have a long bench in New Mexico, most notably Lieutenant Gov. Diane Denish and Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez. Former Attorney General Patricia Madrid used to be a Democratic hot-shot in the state, but she lost a 2006 House race against Wilson which could start off the Democrats' with a bad precedent if she were to run against the same opponent again.

CQ Politics mentions that both Madrid and Denish are mulling a run. Denish provided an uncommitted "I need to listen to some people that are talking to me about the possibility of running for this Senate seat and see what they have to say and see what the possibilities are." Madrid made sure to address concerns over her late 2006 melt-down, saying "I think that I could run a very credible race." One more thing to consider: The NM filing deadline is February 8th, so Richardson could very well wait until after Iowa and New Hampshire and jump in the race then (though that would probably be hard to do given that there would then already be Democrats in the race).

In what could complicate the race further, news today is that Republican Rep. Steve Pearce (the third of NM's three representative) is seriously considering running for the Republican nomination. That would provoke a very competitive GOP primary between Wilson and Pearce. The latter would probably benefit from the help of Club for Growth. It is unclear how much this could hurt Republicans, as competitive Senate primaries can also boost media exposure and name-ID.

And to top it all, Bob Kerrey has still not made his intentions known in Nebraska, prompting increasing speculation that he will stay out of the race.