Two major Senate developments: Craig will not resign in ID, Wilson will run in NM

After a couple of weeks of slow action on the Senate front, the last two days have seen a flurry of announcements and rumors. First up, New Mexico. Pete Domenici announced he would not run for a seventh term in 2008. Less than 24 hours later, the GOP already has a high-profile Republican in the race!

Rep. Heather Wilson from New Mexico's 1st district is reportedly ready to jump in the Senate race. This was expected, as Domenici had anointed Wilson his heir apparent long ago, and Republicans can rejoice that they got their strongest candidate in the race. Rep. Pearce of the 3rd district might challenge Wilson in the primary, so maybe the speed with which Wilson let her intentions be public is a way of holding Pearce out of the race.

Wilson is a great campaigner. Her district leans Democratic, and she has been able to hold it cycle after cycle despite being repeatedly at the very top of the Democratic target list. Her 2006 victory (by only 1000 votes) was truly a miracle given that most analysts had judged Wilson done for and given the Democratic tsunami of that election. In fact, if Democrats had won that 2006 race, Wilson would not be in a position of running today and the GOP would be stuck with Pearce, who many view as too conservative to win statewide. Wilson's base in the swing part of the state, and that might help her tremendously in a statewide race.

That said, Wilson's entry is not necessarily good news for Republicans. She is their best candidate is first a testament to how thin the GOP bench is in this state. Wilson's major weakness is her involvement in the attorney firing scandal, and she has been dealing with the very same accusations of unethical behavior (for calling the house of a US Attorney to pressure his investigations) that pushed Domenici towards the exit. It is rather ironic, therefore, that she would be taking over for him, and Democrats are sure to use her troubles against her in the race.

And what is good news for Senate Republicans is a disaster for their House counterparts. This means that there will be yet another open seat to defend, this one in even more Democratic territory than the already problematic OH-15, MN-03, and IL-11. Republicans are very unlikely to keep this seat come 2008 -- will they even put up a fight?

On the Democratic side, Bill Richardson made sure to crush any speculation that he might be dropping out of the presidential race to run for this Senate seat. His entry in the race would make it a guaranteed Democratic pick-up, but it was very unlikely to begin with. Democrats have many strong candidates they can run and be more than competitive with.

And then comes the completely insane Idaho Senate race. Larry Craig scandal is finally close to resolution. In a stunning turn of events, Craig has completely changed his mind and rescinded on his promise to resign at the end of September. He had already started backtracking early in September when he implied he would not resign if he was allowed to withdraw his guilty plea. Well, Judge Charles Porter just ruled today and denied Craig's request:

Because the defendant's guilty plea was accurate, voluntary and intelligent, and because the conviction is supported by the evidence, the defendant's conviction for disorderly conduct occurring on June 11, 2007, in the men's public restroom at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport in Bloomington, Hennepin County, Minn., is valid.

In response, Craig asserted his innocence -- and shocked the political world by announcing he was not going to resign at all! He said in his statement, "I will continue to serve Idaho in the United States Senate, and there are several reasons for that. As I continued to work for Idaho over the past three weeks here in the Senate, I have seen that it is possible for me to work here effectively." And Craig added that he would not run in 2008: "When my term has expired, I will retire and not seek reelection. I hope this provides the certainty Idaho needs and deserves."

What this means for the Senate race: It will be an open seat, as Governor Otter will not get to appoint a replacement that could then run as an incumbent. This means that many Republicans will jump in the primary which could become quite a bloody affair. This also means that Larry Craig's shadow will loom large on the party's nominee throughout the campaign all the way to November 2008, and there will be no way for Idaho Republicans to make voters forget.

Democrat Larry LaRocco is still a significant underdog, and Republicans are likely to keep the seat. But this scenario is without any doubt the best for Democrats (well, besides Craig's running for re-election). They might not have made the race a toss-up just yet, but they will force the GOP to sweat it out and waste money in Idaho.

New Mexico and Idaho are ranked 11th and 15th in last week-end's senate rankings. Since then, they have become the 4th and 5th GOP-held open seat of the cycle .They are both sure to move up in the next update, especially the NM contest.