The recruitement troubles of New York Republicans

It is still to early to know whether Eliot Spitzer's scandal and resignation can offer any boost to New York's dying Republican Party. On the verge of losing the state Senate and relinquishing control of the entirety of the state government since the 1930s, the state GOP collapse has major consequences at the federal level, since only 6 of the state's 29 representatives are now Republicans.

After picking up 3 seats in 2006 (NY-19, NY-20 and NY-24), Democrats are now looking to win in the three districts that they barely lost last time (between 2% to 4%): NY-25, NY-26 and NY-29. It is no coincidence that the incumbents from the first two districts have retired: Their situation looked difficult and they did not trust that the NRCC would do that much to help them. But with their departure, Democrats are in an even more favorable situation to pick up their seats.

To make matters worse, Republicans have some major recruitment trouble in those 2 districts. In NY-25, Peter Cappuccilli Jr., the only Republican to have stepped forward, dropped out on Tuesday, citing health reasons. This leaves the GOP with no candidate in the district, though they still have time to convince someone to jump in. Things are shaping up very well for Democrat Dan Maffei, and NY-25 will be one of the first districts the NRCC will give up in the fall when it will have to choose where to spend its meager resources. And that fact alone is surely enough to dissuade the strongest Republican candidates from jumping in.

In NY-26, the story is similar: a few days after the Republicans' top choice (state Senator Maziarz) announced he would not run, the GOPer most mentioned to take the nod, Assemblyman Jim Hayes, has declared he will stay out of the race. This is an open seat in a district that Bush carried comfortably in 2004, and instead of battling each other to become the nominee, the district's top Republicans are staying out. It says a lot about the pessimism of New York Republicans.

There is a Republican who has jumped in the NY-26 race, however: Iraq war veteran David Bellavia. The likely Democratic nominee right now is fellow Iraq war veteran Jonathan Powers, which would mean that the race finds itself disputed mainly on the war issue, not necessarily the best strategy for Republicans in upstate New York. It is also less likely that the NRCC abandons NY-26 than NY-25. The fundamentals of this district are more favorable to Republicans than those in NY-25, and it would really take a GOP plunge or major money woes for the House GOP to give up on a district that voted Bush with 55%.

And this is not the end of the House troubles of the state party: Their recruitment failures are as dramatic in some of the seats Democrats picked up in 2006. NY-19 is perhaps the most revealing example in the entire country, as Republicans had recruited one of their top and most highly touted recruits before he abruptly dropped out in late November. The GOP has since given up on contesting this race seriously, despite the fact that Rep. Hall was considered one of the weakest Democratic freshmen. In NY-24, one of the hotly contested open seat races of 2006 (you might remember the infamously absurd ad run against Democrat Arcuri), Republicans have only gotten businessman Richard Hanna to start exploring the race, and while Hanna could self-fund he will not be considered top-tier even if he does jump in.

One last recruitment note which has nothing to do with New York: The New Hampshire Republican Party is finding itself without a gubernatorial candidate after Manchester Mayor Guinta unexpectedly announced he would not take on Governor Lynch (who is up for reelection every two years). Republicans have other Republicans considering the race, but Lynch is a very popular governor who will have little trouble winning re-election, which leaves the GOP in a bind. From the Union Leader: "Influential state Republicans, surprised by Guinta's unexpected decision, are now searching for a candidate who can perhaps come within 10 or 12 percentage points of Lynch to bolster the ticket and, theoretically at least, prevent a 2006-style blowout."

House diary: GOP finds candidate for Weller's seat, not Reynolds's

The dominant story of this year's House races has been the GOP's open seat headaches. Not only are Republicans facing a massive exodus of their caucus, with many of the departing members leaving behind very vulnerable districts, but they have had trouble recruiting in many crucial districts.

No race exemplifies these problem better than IL-11, left open by Rep. Weller. It was clear from the beginning that this would be prime pick-up territory, but GOP problems were conpounded by the uneven recruitment of the two parties: Democrats got state Senate President Debbie Halvorson while the GOP's top choice (Christine Radogno) refused to get in. New Lenox Mayor Tim Balderman became the Republican nominee after the February 5th primary, but abruptly decided to withdraw two weeks later. That left the GOP without a candidate, but with party leaders having the right to select the nominee themselves.

Republicans were hoping to attract a few state Senators who had initially refused to run, perhaps attracting them with the fact that they would not have to run for a primary. But they apparently got rebuked one more time because Chicago Businessman Martin Ozinga is now emerging as the choice of party operatives after he declared himself recently. The final decision will not be made until April 30th, but Republicans can at least be relieved that they got a candidate in the race to allow them to play defense and test the district's readiness to become blue.

Meanwhile, in NY-26, Republicans start off slightly favored to keep the seat of former NRCC chairman Reynolds, who announced his retirement last week. The district leans Republican, but with upstate New York trending increasingly Democratic in recent cycles it will not be an easy hold for Republicans. And the GOP just got its first major recuirtement failure in this district, with state Senator George Maziarz announcing he will not run for Reynolds's seat, despite being considered by many as the front-runner for the Republican nod. The Niagara County Republican Chairman also said he would not be running.

The fact that politicians like Maziarz (or Christine Radogno in IL-11) who were basically promised the Republican nod in GOP-held districts are refusing to jump in the race confirms how grim many Republicans thinks their party's chances are in the fall, at least in congressional races. In essence, some of these refusals come down to a belief that it would be harder to win this year in an open seat than in the next few cycles against an incumbent.

• Internal Polls: NY-25 and OH-02
  

We also got two internal polls released by two campaigns of opposing parties yesterday, and like most leaked internals they paint very favorable pictures for those who commissioned them:

• In OH-02, Republican incumbent Jean Schmidt leads challenger Vic Wulsin 51% to 33%. This is a rematch of the 2006 race which Schmitt barely won.

• In NY-25, a GOP-held open seat, Democrat Dan Maffei (who came very close to beating the incumbent in 2006) leads two Republican candidates by double-digits, 41% to 29% against Peter Cappuccilli and 41% to 25% against Randy Wolken.

Take those numbers with many grains of salt, since they are internal polls, but neither survey has particularly surprising results. OH-02 is a very Republican district, and, despite the fact that Schmidt had two extremely close calls in a special election in 2005 and in the 2006 general election, it's also expected that she manages to entrench herself over time. NY-25, meanwhile, is a district that Kerry carried in 2004 and in a state in which Republicans are not going well. It's thus expected that the Democratic nominee (who already ran in 2006, so has a better base) starts off favored in what is essentially a generic ballot test.

Yet another House Republican unexpectedly retires in blue-trending district

We hadn't seen a shocking House retirement for quite a while, but just as Republicans were starting to breath a little easier one of their most marginal seat just opened up. Rep. Jim Walsh of NY-25 announced he was retiring, telling teh Syracuse Post-Standard that "It's time to go."

Walsh has been in the House for 20 years now, but he barely survived his race in 2006. He won against Democrat Dan Maffei 51% to 49%, a difference of less than 4,000 votes. Republicans found themselves marginalized throughout the Empire State that fall and Maffei was back for a rematch this year.

With Walsh out of the race, Democrats have one of their best pick-up opportunity. NY-25 is one of the 8 remaining Republican-held districts that Kerry carried in 2004. Because of the opportunity the seat represents, other Democrats could jump in the race and challenge Maffei's hold on the nomination, starting with the Syracuse of Mayor Matt Driscoll. Republicans have a long list of candidates who could jump, mostly county executives and legislators so let's wait a little to see how the field plays out.

Until the candidates emerge, the Democrats have to be given an edge given the district's Democratic tilt and the Northeast's falling in the blue column in 2006. Also, this is the kind of district that the RNCC will not necessarily defend that intensely. They have plenty of very competitive seats to defend, and much less money than the DCCC. If they see that they are going down in NY-25, they will probably not invest too much in a race in which the Democratic candidate could also benefit from presidential coattails.

This also reminds us that retirement season is still not over, and a few more seats could open up in hte coming weeks (keep an eye on Missouri, for example, in case one of the Republicans jumps in the gubernatorial race now that Gov. Blunt shockingly announced he would not run again a few days ago). We are also still waiting to figure out what Tom Davis is doing in Virginia, in what could be an extremely difficult seat for Republicans to hold if he bows out.