The end game thread: Obama clinches nomination, Clinton wins SD and McCain delivers very weak speech

7:50am: Steve Pearce puts an end to the career of Heather Wilson by defeating her by a few thousands votes. After surviving countless challenges by Democrats in her district NM-01, many of them won when Democrats were sure of picking-up her seat (see 2006), Wilson fell to a more conservative Republican in a primary and sees her political career interrupted. The two candidates polled roughly the same against Udall for the general election (with perhaps a slight advantage to Pearce) but Democrats ought to be relieved that they won't have to face Wilson's formidable campaign skills. For a moderate to have kept it this close in a low-turnout primary dominated by conservatives once again speaks to her survival instincts. Meanwhile, in CA-04, the conservative wing of the GOP also defeated a more moderate candidate and gave the nomination to famous California conservative Tom McClintock, who is now slightly favored to beat Democrat Charlie Brown in a district that clearly leans Republican.

11:45pm: Senator Lautenberg survives his primary by a significant margin, and so does Rep. Boswell of Iowa, with about 60% of the vote. The New Jersey Senate race will now oppose Lautenberg to former Rep. Zimmer, who narrowly won his party's nod. In New Mexico, Steve Pearce is holding on to the tightest of leads against Heather Wilson -- but her district is underreporting compared to his and that could help her pull a come-from-behind victory (if Wilson becomes the nominee Democrats ought to be careful as she always seems able to snatch victory from the brink of defeat). In NM-01, it looks like Martin Heinrich will become the Democratic nominee, setting a hotly contested open seat race against Republican sheriff White.

10:30pm: Obama proclaims himself the Democratic nominee and delivers a tribute to Hillary Clinton and her service in an attempt to woo her supporters and avoid giving the impression of pressuring her. Speaking to a cheering crowd that has packed the St. Paul auditorium in which McCain will accept the nomination in early September, Obama then turned his sights to John McCain and outlined his differences with the Arizona Senator. Since I criticized McCain for talking about Obama too much in his own speech, I ought to say the same here but it's hard to deny that Obama's tone is much less negative (there are no snickers, for one) and Obama quickly moved on to talk about his own priorities and his own hopes -- moving to celebrate this day as the end of his primary campaign. Obama finished his speech to a screaming crowd. Rarely had the difference in Obama and his opponents' speech-making ability been so obvious, as McCain's speech was weak in a way Clinton's never were (compare the energy of Hillary's rally to McCain's).

10:05pm: Montana is called for Obama, which allows prevents Clinton from scoring two upsets tonight (and which also gives Obama 5 new superdelegate endorsements, including the state's governor's and 2 senators). The exit polls suggest this is going to be a huge win for the Illinois Senator. We are now waiting for Obama's speech, the third and final one of the night.
In AL-02, Bobby Bright, the Montgomery Mayor who the GOP also tried to recruit (underscoring how conservative Bright is) will be the Democratic nominee's in this district that Bush won with 67% of the race. Meanwhile, in the New Mexico Senate primary, Heather Wilson is off to a strong start as she is leading Steve Pearce by 6% even though Pearce's district is the one that has reported the most and Wilson's has barely started reporting. In New Jersey, Lautenberg is continuing to crush Andrews by more than 30% with almost two thirds reporting.

9:50pm: After a very long speech in which she at times looked set to drop out and which she started with a long recognition of all Obama has accomplished but in which she also outlined her own case for the nomination (claiming the popular vote, outlining she won states that are necessary to get 270 electoral votes and that she is more electable), Clinton announced... she would make no decision today and consulting with party leaders. She also emphasized the issue of health care, in what is perhaps a signal that she will take that in negotiations with the Obama campaign (either to have him embrace elements of her plan or to appoint her as his point-person on health care issues). I think most people -- including me -- were expecting Clinton to announce she was dropping out considering how massive the day's superdelegate tsunami ended up being but she remained stunningly defiant. She said she would talk to party figures in the coming days but outlined no path to the nomination -- how does she think she can reverse the tide?!

9:25pm: South Dakota called for Hillary Clinton. With 19% reporting, she is ahead 57% to 43%. Is it not appropriate of what has happened ever since the beginning of March that Obama would win the nomination based on his delegates in a state in which Clinton unexpectedly won (in what is the first true upset since February). For much of the past three months, Clinton won important contests but she never did so by a margin large enough to change the race's fundamentals. By the time she started pulling in large leads (WV, KY and PR), it was too late. And by the time she won the first state that was expected to go for Obama, her rival already clinched the nomination. Overall, her last-minute win deprives Obama of closing strongly, something she has denied him for much of the past few months; Ben Smith notes this is particularly embarrassing for one of Obama's strongest backers, former Sen. Tom Dashle.
In New Jersey, meanwhile, Lautenberg is now crushing Andrews 64% to 31% with 46% reporting. In the GOP race, former Rep. Zimmer is narrowly leading.

9:10pm:"That's not change we can believe in," McCain repeated in a speech that was interrupted at before its completion as the networks wanted to call the Democratic race. Did the McCain campaign realize this was the candidate's first primetime speech since March 4th and his first general election speech? Is this how he wants to reintroduce himself to voters and launch his general election campaign? In what was intended to frame his showdown with Obama, McCain devoted much of his speech to attacking the Illinois Senator, accusing his opponent of being in the pocket of special interests, of threatening to lead Iraq into chaos and more generally questioned Obama's judgment. Overall, the tone of McCain's comments were overwhelmingly negative, which I believe was a mistake considering that the rest of the night would clearly be a celebration of Obama's candidacy and that this was McCain chance to launch his general election campaign on his own terms. And I am not even mentioning the terrible delivery, the strange snicker before each rendition of "That's not change we can believe in," the obvious teleprompter reading, and the very sparse crowd weakly cheering and jeering (could McCain not find a better venue and a bigger crowd for this important speech?).

McCain did attempt to define himself as well, choosing to emphasize his reputation as an independent voice who is in the pocket of neither party. He repeated that his priority is working "for you" and claimed the mantle of change. He also did his best to distance himself from President Bush, repeating that he does not represent a third term (talk about being on the defensive) and that he has long opposed the president on issues like climate change and the management of the Iraq war. McCain also emphasized his new slogan, "A leader we can believe in," a rip-off of Obama's slogan that is meant to emphasize that Obama's promise is "empty hope" and that only McCain has the judgment to lead the country.

9pm: Networks announce that Obama has earned more than 2,118 delegates and is projected as the presumptive Democratic nominee. The polls closed in South Dakota and, while it is too early to call a winner, Obama cannot not win a few delegates there and thus get the 4-5 delegates he needed as of 10 minutes ago.
Surprisingly, the polls actually show Clinton leading in South Dakota! ARG's poll, which came out of nowhere to show her ahead two days ago, could be vindicated and Clinton could leave on a high note (note that Clinton also picked up a last minute superdelegate!)

8:40pm: Frank Lautenberg is off to a decent start though Andrews is coming in stronger than expected, as the incumbent leads 55% to 40% with 9% of precincts reporting. Keep in mind that Andrews launched in the battle stunningly late, and if he manages to keep this relatively close he will really come to regret not having launched his race months earlier. It takes time to organize a statewide primary battle against as established an incumbent as Lautenberg.

Original Post: The last results thread of the primary season will, appropriately enough, be devoted less to raw results than to superdelegate endorsements. Polls close at 9pm and 10pm ET in Montana and South Dakota and given the pace at which superdelegates are endorsing, it is possible that Obama will clinch the nomination before polls close in either of those states. Polls have also closed in Alabama and New Jersey, which are holding some contested primaries today, so we shall soon know whether Frank Lautenberg survived the last-minute primary challenge mounted by Rep. Andrews.

For now, here are some guidelines of what to watch for tonight.