New Republican seat opens up in House -- with another potentially to follow very soon

Ohio Representative Ralph Regula is reportedly on the verge of announcing that he will not be running for re-election in 2008. Regula, who is now 83, has been on everyone's retirement watch for years and has apparently decided to finally call it quits. This is hardly a surprise -- Regula's pale fundraising numbers had already provided a strong hint as to his intentions. (Update: Regula confirms to the Plain Dealer that he is retiring.)

OH-16 is certainly a competitive district, but it is by no means one of the tightest in the country. Bush prevailed here with 54% in 2004. But this is certainly a seat Democrats can snatch away, and Republicans will have to field a strong candidate fast as Democrats already have State Senator John Boccieri... who is currently deployed in Iraq. Regula had drawn primary challenges from his own party by Republicans who thought he would probably retire, but it should now be seen whether other GOPers (like state Senator Kirk Schuring) will not jump in the race.

It could very well be that this retirement is good news for Republicans. Regula's age was becoming a campaign issue, and Democrats might have had an easier time defeating him than winning an open-seat given the district's slight Republican lean. But this at least guarantees that OH-16 is on the board in next year's election, and it is the ninth GOP-held house seat that is opening up. Many of these are very competitive and some even lean slightly Democratic, including OH-15, NM-01, MN-03, AZ-01, IL-11...

And NM-03 could also open up very soon if Steve Pearce jumps in the Senate race to replace retiring Senator Pete Domenici. Pearce was buoyed by SurveyUSA's poll earlier in the week that showed him running much stronger than fellow Republican Heather Wilson in the general election, and he has been preparing for a statewide run for years. But the big surprise has been conservative Republicans lining up against Wilson's candidacy before Pearce lets his intentions known. Yesterday, it was Dennis Hastert. Today, it is Dick Cheney that agreed to hold a fund-raiser for Wilson! Such news is likely to make Pearce stay away from the race. It could also allow Democrats to paint Wilson as too close to the Bush Administration -- but that is a price Wilson is willing to pay to make sure she first becomes the Republican nominee.