Morning polls: Democrats better positioned in Wisconsin than in New Jersey

• Wisconsin as tight as ever

SUSA keeps on rolling out daily polls, and today, it released a poll from Wisconsin. Wisconsin has been among the tightest states in both 2000 and 2004. In fact, Bush had a large lead here throughout the 2004 cycle and Kerry ended up winning the state by the smallest of margins. No one ever pays that close of an attention to Wisconsin since Ohio and Florida are deemed much more important, but it is really a crucial state with 10 electoral votes.

And Democrats look like they can hold on to the state -- although he margins are very small:

• Clinton beats Giuliani by 4% (48-44). She leads Thompson by only 2, and Romney by 9 (50-41).
• Obama wins all three matchups as well. He beats Giuliani by 3 (46-43), Thompson by 5 (48-43), and Romney by 15 (52-37).
• Edwards, in a stark contrast to what we are used to seeing, does WORSE than Obama and Clinton against Giuliani, and loses 45-44! But he leads by 9 against Thompson (49-40) and 18 against Romney.

Take a look at the Missouri survey. Or the Ohio one. Both have Edwards running significantly better than his rivals in the general election. Here, while Edwards beats Thompson and Romney much more comfortably, he is the only Democrat to lose a matchup. But these are small problems to have and Democrats are in a good early position in Wisconsin.

• Can Giuliani pick-up New Jersey?

Every two years, Republicans get high hopes of carrying New Jersey in presidential or senatorial elections. Every two years, they dump tons of money into the state and end up hardly making a dent despite early polls showing them very competitive. This happened in 2004 with Bush v. Kerry and in 2006 with Menendez v. Kean. New Jerseyites hate Republicans more than they hate Democrats, which is saying a lot given how much they distrust their local government after corruption scandals have repeatedly rocked the state. But could Giuliani be finally the Republican who has credentials that satisfy New Jersey voters? He has long argued that he would put the coastal Democratic states in play: Connecticut, New Jersey, California.

A new Quinnipiac poll has worrisome news for Democrats, as Giuliani would beat all three main contenders:

• Giuliani beats Clinton by an insignigifcant 45-44, but even that is too much in a must-win state for Democrats. He also crushes Obama 49-40 and Edwards 50-39.
• Democrats fare better against the other Republicans. Clinton wins against McCain 46-41, against Thompson 48-36 and against Romney 52-33.
• So do Obama and Edwards by similar margin. They both barely win against McCain (44-41 and 44-40 respectively) and much more comfortably against Thompson (49-44 and 48-34) and Romney (51-31 and 51-30).

The internal numbers paint the extent to which Giuliani will have to be reckoned with in the state. He is by far the most popular candidate, with an outstanding favorability rating of 61-39. By contrast, Clinton's stands at 51-41, and she posts the second highest favorability number.

More polls will have to confirm this, but I would advise Democrats to not panic about New Jersey until late in the cycle. If the state has not started to come home in late September 2008, for it usually does not do so earlier in the cycle, then there could be cause to worry.

• Are Democrats gaining an edge nationally?
  

In what could be sign that the Democrats are starting to gain a natural advantage, Bill Richardson has been rising in national numbers just released by Rasmussen. He now trails Giuliani by only 3% (46-43) and beats Thompson by 1% (42-41). Earlier in the year, Richardson trailed by double-digits against Giuliani.

Richardson has not been running a national campaign, concentrating instead on New Hampshire and Iowa. This rise therefore cannot be attributed to a rise in name-recognition throughout the country, and Richardson remains far less known than Giuliani. His rise under those conditions seems to say more about the advantage Democrats are gaining generically and structurally rather than about Richardson in particular.