Morning polls: Romney holds on to his Iowa lead

Strategic Vision, a Republican polling firm, has just released a primary poll from Iowa:

• On the Democratic side, it is a complete toss-up: Hillary Clinton is at 24%, John Edwards at 22% and Barack Obama at 21%. Bill Richardson follows with 13%.
• On the Republican side, Mitt Romney is still ahead -- and still by a big margin. He has 30%, followed by Rudy Giuliani's 17% and Fred Thompson's 13%. Mike Huckabee comes in fourth at 8% and John McCain is far behind at 6%.
  

Let's start with the GOP. Yesterday showed Romney's New Hampshire lead had eroded significantly. But Romney's challenge still remains the same: Remain in a strong position (not necessarily a strong lead) in NH, and then win the Iowa caucuses. The momentum out of Iowa should be enough for the virtual NH tie with Giuliani to become a lead. And if Romney sweeps both Iowa and New Hampshire, can he be stopped, knowing that Michigan is around the corner? So polls like this one have to make the Romney campaign feel much better.

Also notice McCain's weakness in Iowa (he hadn't even competed there in 2000). For that matter, all major Republicans but Romney have a low score, and only Romney and Giuliani cross the 15% threshold supporters need to reach to be allowed to caucus for a candidate (this is a very vast topic we will have to come back to soon, because it could dramatically affect the Iowa results on both sides. MyDD briefly alludes to this today).

On the Democratic side, there isn't much to say. The three leading candidates have been battling for an edge for a few months now. What seems certain is that (1) Edwards cannot be said to be leading Iowa anymore as he was a few months ago, but he is still in a position to win it out. And (2) Iowa is the only obstacle on Clinton's route. Her numbers in every other state (with the exception, perhaps, of South Carolina) resemble her huge national lead, and she is unlikely to slip up anywhere or give any room to her rivals if she gets a win in Iowa. But that is a huge if. Iowa is completely stuck in a three-way tie, and Clinton coming in second or third would open up the nomination fight, boost Obama and Edwards in NH and SC and force Clinton into a long contest.

And the million dollar question: What would happen if Richardson stunningly pulled ahead and won it all in Iowa? He is definitely in a position too, and it is anyone's guess how much he could use that to propel himself in later states as well.

• Rasmussen polls the general election, finds Hillary surging

Rasmussen regularly polls national general election numbers, and he just released a poll matching up Giuliani and Thompson. The marquee match-ups of the election. His title says it all, Surging Clinton Outpaces Giuliani and Thompson. Clinton - who led Giuliani by 1% two weeks and had only led him one other times in the last few months - is now up 5%, 48% to 43%. Against Thompson, she has an 8% lead, 49% to 41%.

The internals tell part of the story. Clinton has reached her best favorability rating since last November (52-46), and Giuliani is at an all-time low (49-45). Obviously, these numbers will have to be confirmed by other polls, but this is the second straight Rasmussen survey in which Giuliani's favorability rating is under 50%.