Romney in trouble in New Hampshire

A day after CNN's poll of the Democratic primary demonstrated the extent of Barack Obama's negative trendline, CNN released numbers from the Republican primary:

• Mitt Romney's lead is down to a statistically insignificant point. He has 25% compared to Giuliani's 24%. McCain is at 18% and Thompson is stuck at 13%.
• A month ago, the CNN poll had Romney at 34%, with a 14% lead against Giuliani at 20%. Thompson was still at 13% but McCain then came in fourth down at 12.

Just as in the case of Obama, this survey is worrisome for the Romney campaign because it confirms what other polls have found in recent weeks. Namely, that Romney's once mighty lead in New Hampshire has dwindled down to low single-digits. The last Rasmussen poll from a few days ago gave him a 25-22 lead down from a 32-20 lead in Rasmussen's August survey. In fact, Romney has led in 19 out of the 20 New Hampshire polls since late April -- many of them by double-digits (the exception was a mid-July ARG outlier in which Romney trailed Giuliani by a point). But the past few polls have showed an erosion of his support.

It is interesting to note that in neither the CNN poll nor the Rasmussen poll does Giuliani benefit from Romney's decline: In Rasmussen, it is Thompson that rises by 8 points (to 19%) as Romney goes down by 7. In today's CNN poll, it is McCain who has the most momentum. Giuliani might be on the verge of overtaking Romney's lead, but he is not showing much sign of life.

The Romney campaign needs to get a win out of New Hampshire. He is trailing in national polls and is not a force in the big February 5th states, for now. His strategy has always been to win Iowa, carry the momentum to New Hampshire, and then use that early sweep to run the tables (just like Kerry did in 2004). This strategy has its downside: A slip-up in Iowa or New Hampshire, and Romney is likely to be out.

The good news for the Romney campaign is that he is still leading in Iowa. This mean he does not need a large lead in New Hampshire right now. If he can maintain himself on equal footing with Rudy until early January and then win the Iowa caucuses (a tall order, but he has a huge advantage in that state right now), he would likely be propelled up and get the edge in the Granite state.

But naturally, Romney would like to be in a more comfortable position in the coming months, and he needs to be seen as a force on the GOP side to generate excitement and raise money. He has been losing much of the momentum he accumulated over the summer, and does not want to lose his status as a top GOP contender. Polls like this one are certainly not good news.