Disappointing news for Democrats in a few congressional races

• No special election in IL-14

Dennis Hastert had pretty clearly announced his intention to resign before the end of his term (in the tradition of fallen House speakers). Democrats were very excited about this: While IL-14 leans Republican, a special election in the spring would allow them to devote time and money to the district in an effort to wrestle it away. Furthermore, they were planning on holding the election on February 5th (the Governor, a Democrat, would get to decide the election date), which is the day of the Illinois presidential primary. With Illinois Senator Barack Obama on the ballot, Democratic turnout is likely to be much higher than GOP turnout in the state -- which would have given a huge edge to the Democratic candidate in IL-14.

Well, Hastert just ruined all these plans by announcing he would make sure there was no special election. In other words, if he is to resign, he will do so late enough that there will be a vacancy throughout 2008 rather than an election to choose his replacement. Democrats certainly have a shot to win an open seat come November 2008, but how much are they willing to concentrate on IL-14 when they have so many more promising seats to targets (including three others in Illinois: IL-6, IL-11 and IL-18).

• While waiting for Kerrey, Johanns builds a lead

Democratic hopes of wrestling away Chuck Hagel's Senate seat rested on two elements: (1) Bob Kerrey would jump in the race for them, and (2) the strongest GOP candidate, Mike Johanns, would face a divisive primary against Attorney General Joe Bruning and former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub that would take much of his time.

Last week brought news that Kerrey was inching away from a run and that he would decide sometime this week. We are still waiting for further information. And while Democrats had hope that premise 2 would be satisfied (an internal Bruning poll showed Johanns with a small 38-30 lead in the GOP primary), an NRSC poll shows that Johanns has little to fear from a primary: Johanns leads with 58%, versus 16% for Bruning and 12% for Daub.

Meanwhile, Daub has started running ads already, indicating that he is not planning on backing down. Bruning gives the same impression. If Democrats manage to get current Omaha Mayor Fahey to run for them, they might successfully exploit Republican divisions. But until then, the Nebraska Senate race is one of the only Senate races where things are not breaking the Democrats' way.

Update

What is Kerrey up to? He told the Omaha World-Herald today that he is "excited" about the prospect of running, but refused to say whether he would run! Asked when he would decide, he answered, "I have to get it done soon, it's all I know." He explained that one of the main cons is the fear of moving his six-year old son Henry around too much (once to Nebraska during the campaign, and then to DC if Kerrey pulls it off). This a very fair concern, but one's got to wonder why Kerrey is making such a public show of his being undecided.