9.26.2007

Will Craig resign, or will there be further surprises? (Updated!)

No matter how hard we try to stay away from the Craig story, Craig himself makes sure to keep the story in the news by opening up bizarre new storylines. A month ago, he announced he intended to resign at the end of September. A few days later, it was revealed (because of a voice message Craig himself left on the wrong person's voicemail) that Craig was leaving open the option of not resigning if his judicial troubles were resolved before then.

Craig immediately proceeded to petition the court to withdraw his guilty plea, and he got his day in court this morning in Edina, MN -- even though he himself did not go to Minnesota. Now CNN is reporting that the judge will not announce whether he is allowing Craig to withdraw his guilty plea and go to a full trial before next week... after the September 30th deadline Craig imposed on himself.

Asked directly what he plans on doing on Sunday, September 30th, Craig refused to answer: “We are waiting for the legal determinations and I have nothing more to say.” This seems to imply that Craig is not going to resign at the end of September and say he is waiting for the imminent judicial decision. Though he could also be saying that he will wait until Sunday to see if the judge issues a ruling, and then figure out what he is doing.

This opens up a very interesting question no one is really prepared to answered. If Craig waits it out a few more days and the judge does allow him to withdraw his guilty plea, is Craig going to stay in the Senate while preparing for a public trial on charges of lewd behavior? That would seem entirely fair -- how can the GOP ask Craig to resign before his trial when it is not willing to even faintly go after Ted Stevens? And Craig's arrest violates due process strongly enough that Craig should be given a chance here.

Nevertheless, Democrats are salivating at the possibility of the Craig debacle extending a few more months. Even if Craig doesn't run for re-election, Republicans would then have to prepare for the open seat constantly overshadowed by Larry Craig. Not to mention that if Governor Otter doesn't get to appoint Craig's successor Republicans are likely to split in a divisive primary that could favor their candidate, Rep. LaRocco.

Republicans remain likely to keep the seat in 2008, but they could be forced to spend much more energy playing defense than they were intending to.

Update

We didn't have to wait long to get an answer. Craig just released a statement announcing he will not resign on September 30th:

Today was a major step in the legal effort to clear my name. The court has not issued a ruling on my motion to withdraw my guilty plea. For now, I will continue my work in the United States Senate for Idaho.

Look for the GOP to turn against Craig again, and pressure him to step down. This should not take too long though: If the judge rules against Craig next week, the Senator will presumably step down. But if the judge rules in his favor, expect all hell to break loose in the Republican Party.

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