Worrisome news for the Giuliani campaign

• Could the NRA derail Giuliani?

A week after Giuliani's speech at the NRA gathering (marked by the infamous cell phone incident), the NRA does not appear to have been convinced that Giuliani had a true change of heart from his days as NYC Mayor when he blasted the NRA as a "group of extremists" and led anti-gun initiatives. Giuliani did his best to convince the crowd that they should not be worried about his positions on the second amendment.

But today, the Washington Times reveals that the NRA is considering getting involved early in the Republican primary race and soon endorsing one of the candidates. This would be a striking departure from the 2000 and 2004 races when they endorsed George Bush only a month before the general election. From Chris Cox, head lobbyist for the NRA: "Historically, we have not gotten involved in primaries. We traditionally wait until after the conventions. That being said, given the candidates and the process and the front-loading of the primaries, it is a possibility that we could get involved in one of these presidential primaries."

There is no doubt that the NRA's involvement would be an attempt to derail Giuliani's campaign. And with 4 million members, the NRA can certainly be a strong force in a Republican primary. The question then is who would the NRA choose to help and endorse? Odds are it would be Thompson, who has earned high marks from the NRA throughout his political career.

• How much is too much when it comes to 9-11?
  

It is becoming increasingly obvious just how much Giuliani is exploiting the 9-11 attacks. The latest controversy: A Giuliani house party on Wednesday night held in California by Abraham Sofaer is seeking $9.11 from guests in support of Rudy's campaign. The Giuliani campaign has distanced itself from this tactic, but Sofaer is hardly an anonymous supporter: He was a Reagan State Department adviser and is a fellow at Stanford University's Hooever Institution. He has given money to Giuliani since 1995.

Chris Dodd was the first to react, blasting Giuliani for exploiting 9-11 and calling this event "absolutely unconscionable, shameless and sickening." Giuliani has faced very little questions for now about his 9-11 record and the use he has made of the attacks during his campaign, despite numerous reports that Giuliani's role before and after 9-11 should be assessed more carefully. But Giuliani's campaign is so dependant on his using the 9-11 attacks that he really cannot afford the press starting to catch on and turning against him for it. Headlines like "Giuliani party seeks $9.11 per person" might not hurt him that badly in isolation. But if they start painting a consistent picture, Giuliani could easily find himself in trouble.

• New numbers from the Florida primary

Rasmussen released today a poll of the Florida primary. Nothing very surprising in these numbers, which confirms what we saw last week: Clinton has a clear lead in the Democratic nomination, and the GOP race is much more fluid. Clinton leads 47% to 22% for Obama. Among Republicans, Giuliani's lead has shrunk to 6% against Thompson (29-23), with McCain and Romney stuck far behind at 12% and 11%.

Only one thing to look at in Florida numbers (and in polls from Feb. 5th states): Do Clinton and Giuliani have a large enough lead to use Florida as a firewall state if everything goes wrong in the early states? Do they have enough room to still be in a position to win the state even if their number decrease considerably because of a bad showing in Iowa or New Hampshire? All the polls in recent weeks show that Clinton does have such a large lead, but that Giuliani does not at all.

Polls like this are terrible news for Giuliani, who is trailing in the early states and does not have any later states to count on. Ultimately, his campaign will have to figure out what state they are counting on to get a crucial January victory. For does Giuliani really expect to do well on February 5th if he goes 0-5 in the January contests?