Are Democrats expanding the Senate playing field?

The Senate playing field has long favored Democrats who are defending only one competitive Senate seat (Louisiana). On the other hand, it has long been clear that Republicans are threatened in a long series of states, starting most obviously with open seats (Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado) and with vulnerable incumbents in Democratic-leaning states (New Hampshire, Minnesota, Oregon, Maine). Over the next few months, Democrats unexpectedly put in play Alaska thanks to Senator Stevens' ethicalo-legal troubles and Mississippi after Trent Lott's surprise resignation. They also increased their chances in Kentucky where Mitch McConnell looked weak throughout the fall, and two conservative states that suddenly opened up -- Nebraska and Idaho.

For those keeping track, that's more than the 9 seats Democrats need to reach a supra-majority in the Senate. Yet, the road to 60 seat got progressively stiffer as Democratic recruitment remained very weak in Kentucky and Nebraska, as Idaho looks unlikely to shake its red leanings and as early signs and polls signaled that Democrats might have a tougher time than expected in Maine, but also in Oregon. Taking out those 5 races from the equation left a still-impressive 7 Republican-held seats that looked truly competitive in the fall.

After a brief period in which Republicans tried to put New Jersey in play through an offensive so confusing that even I am not sure where we were left at, it looks like Democrats are now looking for ways to expand the map. And if recent polls and fundraising decisions are any indication, they might be succeeding:

• In Texas, two polls in one week showed Senator Cornyn with only a 4% lead over challenger Rick Noriega.

Given how disastrous Texas has been for Democrats over the past decade, few people have been paying attention to this race, ranked a second-tier at best in most assessments. But Cornyn has lost a lot of ground since a series of polls showed him posting huge lead against the Democrat in the fall. Cornyn has never been a particularly popular incumbent and if Noriega capitalizes on the state's growing Hispanic community this race could still close to the end.

• In North Carolina, a stunning Rasmussen poll finds Democrat Kay Hagan jumping to a lead against Elizabeth Dole, 48% to 47%.

State Senator Hagan overwhelmingly won a contested primary against Jim Neal on Tuesday. Pre-primary polls showed little electability difference between Hagan and Neal but confirmed that Dole was vulnerable. Today's poll, however, suggests that Hagan is benefiting from a strong post-primary bounce and that she has the potential to truly put Dole in danger. Confirming that this is reflective of an anti-Republican mood rather than of Dole's unpopularity, the incumbent's favorability rating is better than Hagan's, as 56% of respondents have a favorable view of Dole.

North Carolina Democrats already feel boosted by partisan shifts in their direction, as Democrats have dramatically expanded their registration lead, with 2.6 million North Carolinians now registered Democratic versus 1.9 million Republicans. Among people who have registered since January, 56% are Democrats and only 7% Republican. Similar shifts are occurring around the country and putting many Republican seats in danger; they should also serve as a warning to McCain who should not take states like NC for granted.

• In Oregon, a new Rasmussen poll finds GOP Senator Gordon Smith struggling against both of his Democratic challengers, 45% to 42% against Jeff Merkley and 46% to 40% against Steve Novick.

Oregon was long listed as a competitive state but Smith was showing little sign of vulnerability in polls. The Democrats' failure to recruit a top-tier candidate also raised questions as to the viability of their targeting Smith. But this poll should reassure them that Smith is vulnerable -- polling under 50% -- and that there is room for them to seriously contest the race. The primary is on May 20th.

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With those 3 states looking increasingly competitive, there are 10 Republican-held states that could very realistically fall in Democratic hands as of now. That's obviously a huge number -- and still more than very unlikely to come to pass. But the more the DSCC expands the map, the more seats they will be likely to pick-up, positioning themselves to claim a super-majority in 2010. By stretching the NRSC thin, Democrats know that the GOP will have to give up on its most vulnerable seats, starting with NH, CO and NM (this is what happened in 2006 when national Republicans gave up on Ohio weeks before Election Day).

They are thus trying to put even more seats in play than those 10 to test the vulnerability of Republican incumbents across the country. Roll Call reports that the DSCC in now sending 10 staffers to Oklahoma to help state Senator Andrew Rice in his long-shot campaign against Senator Inhofe.

Note: The Senate and House rankings will be updated by the end of the month. Sorry for the delay!