House diary: Renzi shows no intention of resigning, Dems make move in Alabama

After Arizona Representative Renzi was (unsurprisingly) indicted a few days ago with 36 charges of corruption, speculation mounted that Renzi would be forced out of his seat early, forcing a very difficult special election for the GOP. And pressure rose even more when Minority Leader Boehner hinted that he would like to see a Renzi resignation, signaling that House Republicans were even more worried about having to face ethics as an issue again next year than the difficulty of defending such a seat in a special election.

Now, Renzi is finally speaking up and pledging to stay in office. “I will not resign and take on the cloak of guilt because I am innocent," he said, a declaration that for now rules out the possibility of a special election here. Renzi is not running in November so the seat was open already, and there is no reason to expect Renzi to resign in the coming months if he wants to hold firm now. After all. Rep. Ney (from OH-18) did jump out of his race late in the fall of 2006, months after his party had started pressuring him but the circumstances were there different: Ney was actually running for re-election. Rep. Jefferson (D-LA), on the other hand, is indicted and still in the House.

Meanwhile, Democrats got some good news in Alabama, where they might have just managed to make an overwhelmingly Republican district competitive. AL-02, which opened up months ago, gave 67% of its vote to Bush in 2004, so it is not the type of open seat the GOP was expecting to spend any time thinking about. But Democrats just scored a major recruiting coup by convincing Bobby Bright, the mayor of Montgomery, to run for the House. Now, what is unusual here is that Bright is a non-partisan mayor and that Republicans were courting him as well, as I had reported back in September. So Bright deliberately chose to jump in as a Democrat when he could have had a much easier time as a Republican. Given the number of Republicans in their party's primary, this might also be to avoid a crowded primary -- and there is little doubt that Bright would seat at the Right of his caucus if he got to the House.

But from an electoral perspective, this is yet another open seat headache for the GOP. The very red nature of the district makes Bright an underdog for now, but his high-profile in his populous city should enable him to keep things close. And this is exactly the DCCC's intention: Expand the map and force the RNCC to defend seats like AL-02. Remember -- and I cannot state this enough -- the GOP has a massive fundraising disadvantage right now. Yes, they have been doing better over the past few months but they remain far behind their counterparts and still don't have that much to spend.

Doolittle closer to the door, Craig slipping back in

• Rep. Doolittle and his aides subpoenaed
  

Doolittle is shaping up to be the Ted Stevens of the House, and not just because his house was also searched by FBI agents. Doolittle is under investigation for his connections to lobbyist Jack Abramoff, and news keeps strolling in about allegations against him. This week, Doolittle and six of his aides were subpoenaed, in part for 11 years of records that could establish what kind of relationship he and his wife entertained with Abramoff. This clearly indicates that the Justice Department is showing no sign of slowing down the investigation, and that news like this will constantly come in over the next few months.

Doolittle has decided to not obey the subpoena, and fight it in court, arguing that this is a breach of the separation of powers. Whether or not he succeeds at this, the court fight will likely take months and be a very costly distraction for Doolittle who intends to run for re-election.

Such developments are actually great news for the Republican Party. The GOP's worst nightmare is to end up with Doolittle as its nominee. CA-04 leans heavily Republican and an open seat would almost certainly favor the Republican candidate. But with Doolittle weighted down by corruption charges, Democrats are confident they will pick-up the seat. Doolittle said a few weeks ago that he fully intends to run for re-election, but he has to survive a very contested primary first. The Republican Party sure is hoping that Doolittle either resigns or loses the primary, and news like this subpoena make such an outcome much more likely.

• Expanding the map to AL-02

When Republican Rep. Terry Everett announced he was retiring last week, I did not even bother mentioning it here. AL-02 is a very Republican district, and it seemed unthinkable the Democrats would want to compete for the seat when they have so many other opportunities more ripe for pick-up. But TPM reports that the DCCC is very seriously looking at this seat, and trying to recruit some top-notch candidates: Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright (Bright seems to have been approached by both the GOP and Democrats; and though he appears to have more ties with the Democratic Party, what does that say about his politics?) and the state's Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, who had considered jumping in the (non-open) Senate race earlier this year. If Democrats manage to make districts like this one competitive, it would wear out even more the already very thin Republican resources.

• Larry Craig keeps us guessing

Has Senator Craig now entirely given up on his intention to resign at the end of the month? A few days ago, it appeared that Craig would not resign on September 30th as he had said he would, and that he would wait for the MN judge to render a decision (probably some time next week) on whether Craig can withdraw his guilty plea. But Craig's lawyer has just implied that the Senator's ultimate decision has nothing to do with the judge's decision. Here is the relevant exchange between MSNBC's Chris Matthews and Stanley Brand:

MATTHEWS: Stan Brand, is your sense that the senator may well be able to hang on until the end of his term?

BRAND: I — think that’s conceivable, especially if he gets some type of relief in Minnesota. But I don’t think it depends on that.

Is it even worth asking what it would depend on anymore, given how many stunning turns this story has taken so far?