May 6th: Two crucial contests, but for different reasons
Clinton having survived to fight another day, all eyes turn to May 6th contexts, Indiana and North Carolina. Both candidates are now scheduled to criss-cross the states, and Indiana is likely to be portrayed as more crucial; but both states are very important to this nomination battle, but for very different reasons. Just like on March 4th and on April 22nd, Clinton needs to have solid results to survive; but those will be defined differently.
In Indiana, there are no expectations. This is perhaps the first state since Maine in which there is no favorite going in the contest. This is due first to the absence of polls. There have only been five surveys of Indiana in the past 2 months, three of which have been conducted by SUSA. To make matters more confusing, the three SUSA polls have been very inconclusive, with one showing a single-digit Clinton lead, the second a double-digit Clinton lead, and the third a single-digit Obama lead; among other pollsters, ARG shows Clinton ahead and Bloomberg Obama. None of this is particularly helpful to define the conventional wisdom.
More importantly, Indiana's demographics make it difficult to predict the result. With Obama and Clinton holding very firmly to their electoral coalitions, almost every contest has been determined by a demographic logic and the state's racial and class breakdown. Going into Pennsylvania, Clinton was a heavy favorite for just this reason and, by performing exactly as she had in Ohio among all the same groups, she held strong. Indiana, on the other hand, is a more complex picture (perhaps not seen since Wisconsin).
Large parts of the state are likely to go for Clinton by huge margins, holding to patterns we have been seeing in places like rural Ohio and rural Pennsylvania. But don't forget Indiana is a heavily red state; a very large portion of Democratic votes is concentrated in urban Indianapolis where Obama should come in strong, and that alone should outweigh Clinton's strengths in heavily Republican areas. Also, the Northwest of the state is close to Illinois and receives Chicago television, so Obama will be fighting on his home turf in that region. Read the Politico's piece on Indiana demography for a more complete picture.
That Indiana is likely to be tight does not mean that Clinton can get away with a small victory, however. Just as in Pennsylvania, a win will allow her to stay in the race and fight on until April 22nd; but she also has to win convincingly to offset the likely Obama triumph in North Carolina. For Clinton to be described as having had a good night on May 6th, her Indiana victory needs to be impressive enough to overshadow the margin Obama gets in North Carolina. That is certainly a tall order given that the Illinois Senator is favored in the Southern state while Clinton is not in Indiana; but those are the tough playing field in which Clinton must play.
The stakes of North Carolina, then, are as crucial as those of Indiana. If Clinton does not manage to remain at a decent level, she is unlikely to receive any traction at all out of May 6th no matter what happens in Indiana. North Carolina is the biggest state that is left to vote, and its demographics are not as damaging to Clinton as those of other Southern states. If Obama scores a blowout of South Carolina's proportions or even just a convincing double-digit victory, Clinton will fall very far behind in the popular vote and she will have trouble explaining why she is staying in the race. Remember, her campaign is now premised on the argument that Democratic voters are having second thoughts and that they are denying Obama the nomination.
As important will be the breakdown of the vote in North Carolina; Obama has posted better numbers in some primaries than in Pennsylvania among the voting groups he is weakest in; in neighboring Virginia, for instance. Just as in Pennsylvania, the exit polls will be scrutinized for the vote of blue-collar voters and whites; Obama and Clinton would be well-advised to spend a lot of time courting those voters in North Carolina. If he can show that those groups meaningfully moved towards him, it could offset Clinton's argument that he is unelectable as much as any result in Indiana.
Most people are now saying that Clinton would only have to withdraw if she were to lose Indiana; but her position would become as untenable if Obama got great results in North Carolina. That said, the odds right now still favor a Clinton survival. She is in a position to win the Hoosier state and she has not collapsed in North Carolina. Some polls show her trailing by more than 20%, but SUSA's latest poll released on Tuesday shows Obama up single-digits, 50% to 41%. And in a familiar pattern, Obama's lead is pulled upward by independent voters, who support him by 22%.
In Indiana, there are no expectations. This is perhaps the first state since Maine in which there is no favorite going in the contest. This is due first to the absence of polls. There have only been five surveys of Indiana in the past 2 months, three of which have been conducted by SUSA. To make matters more confusing, the three SUSA polls have been very inconclusive, with one showing a single-digit Clinton lead, the second a double-digit Clinton lead, and the third a single-digit Obama lead; among other pollsters, ARG shows Clinton ahead and Bloomberg Obama. None of this is particularly helpful to define the conventional wisdom.
More importantly, Indiana's demographics make it difficult to predict the result. With Obama and Clinton holding very firmly to their electoral coalitions, almost every contest has been determined by a demographic logic and the state's racial and class breakdown. Going into Pennsylvania, Clinton was a heavy favorite for just this reason and, by performing exactly as she had in Ohio among all the same groups, she held strong. Indiana, on the other hand, is a more complex picture (perhaps not seen since Wisconsin).
Large parts of the state are likely to go for Clinton by huge margins, holding to patterns we have been seeing in places like rural Ohio and rural Pennsylvania. But don't forget Indiana is a heavily red state; a very large portion of Democratic votes is concentrated in urban Indianapolis where Obama should come in strong, and that alone should outweigh Clinton's strengths in heavily Republican areas. Also, the Northwest of the state is close to Illinois and receives Chicago television, so Obama will be fighting on his home turf in that region. Read the Politico's piece on Indiana demography for a more complete picture.
That Indiana is likely to be tight does not mean that Clinton can get away with a small victory, however. Just as in Pennsylvania, a win will allow her to stay in the race and fight on until April 22nd; but she also has to win convincingly to offset the likely Obama triumph in North Carolina. For Clinton to be described as having had a good night on May 6th, her Indiana victory needs to be impressive enough to overshadow the margin Obama gets in North Carolina. That is certainly a tall order given that the Illinois Senator is favored in the Southern state while Clinton is not in Indiana; but those are the tough playing field in which Clinton must play.
The stakes of North Carolina, then, are as crucial as those of Indiana. If Clinton does not manage to remain at a decent level, she is unlikely to receive any traction at all out of May 6th no matter what happens in Indiana. North Carolina is the biggest state that is left to vote, and its demographics are not as damaging to Clinton as those of other Southern states. If Obama scores a blowout of South Carolina's proportions or even just a convincing double-digit victory, Clinton will fall very far behind in the popular vote and she will have trouble explaining why she is staying in the race. Remember, her campaign is now premised on the argument that Democratic voters are having second thoughts and that they are denying Obama the nomination.
As important will be the breakdown of the vote in North Carolina; Obama has posted better numbers in some primaries than in Pennsylvania among the voting groups he is weakest in; in neighboring Virginia, for instance. Just as in Pennsylvania, the exit polls will be scrutinized for the vote of blue-collar voters and whites; Obama and Clinton would be well-advised to spend a lot of time courting those voters in North Carolina. If he can show that those groups meaningfully moved towards him, it could offset Clinton's argument that he is unelectable as much as any result in Indiana.
Most people are now saying that Clinton would only have to withdraw if she were to lose Indiana; but her position would become as untenable if Obama got great results in North Carolina. That said, the odds right now still favor a Clinton survival. She is in a position to win the Hoosier state and she has not collapsed in North Carolina. Some polls show her trailing by more than 20%, but SUSA's latest poll released on Tuesday shows Obama up single-digits, 50% to 41%. And in a familiar pattern, Obama's lead is pulled upward by independent voters, who support him by 22%.
posted by Taniel at
11:18 AM
15 Comments:
You forgot to mention the new attack ads by the republicans in NC.
By
Anonymous, At
24 April, 2008 12:34
If Obama wins by 10% the that should be viewed as big by the Clinton supporters because they view a 9% victory (which they mischaracterise as double digits) as substantial even though the demographics in PA favor her as much as they do for Obama in NC.
Seriously though I expect Obama to win by 15% - that would, on a reasonable turnout, make up in the popular vote the deficit from PA. He will also make up the pledged delegate deficit too (regardless of overall turnout).
Of course I expect some Clinton supporters to diss NC and say it is a red state and therefore doesn't matter. If that is the case then IN and TX certainly do not count (although keep getting mentioned). Also in recent GE polls Obama ties McCain in NC - i.e. NC is not as red as some people think (Democratic house and senate, Democratic governor for 16 years and the majority of the congressional delegation is Democratic).
By
Anonymous, At
24 April, 2008 13:44
Taniel - I agree with your premise that both states are important in different ways.
NC matters mathematically to overturn the deficit from PA in delegates and popular vote. But I also agree that how blue collar voters etc vote matters too. NC is the new south, much like Virginia and doesn't have that much in common with what I call the old south - Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas, Mississippi etc.
By
Anonymous, At
24 April, 2008 13:47
Interesting article in the NY Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/24/us/politics/24clinton.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin)
Basically everyone is wringing their hands that since Clinton wins the blue collar vote in OH, PA etc that these voters would desert in November. Well from the polling data (some facts rather than just assertion which some do on here) it looks like the fear is overblown. Most Dems will come home and realise the huge difference between the parties.
The GE polls do show him running as well if not better than Clinton and although there are months to go he has had a bad few weeks of press etc.
Some text below :
According to surveys of Pennsylvania voters leaving the polls on Tuesday, Mr. Obama would draw majorities of support from lower-income voters and less-educated ones — just as Mrs. Clinton would against Mr. McCain, even though those voters have favored her over Mr. Obama in the primaries.
"And national polls suggest Mr. Obama would also do slightly better among groups that have gravitated to Republican in the past, like men, the more affluent and independents, while she would do slightly better among women."
and
"Among all these groups that people have been focused on — blue-collar workers, white working-class folks — we did better in Pennsylvania than we did in Ohio, so we’re continually making progress,” Mr. Obama told reporters in Indiana, which holds its primary on May 6. “If you look at these states that I’m supposed to win, if you look at the polling, I actually do if not as well then better than Senator Clinton relative to Senator McCain.”
By
Anonymous, At
24 April, 2008 13:54
very key point :
But the Pennsylvania exit polls, conducted by Edison/Mitofsky for five television networks and The Associated Press, underscore a point that political analysts made on Wednesday: that state primary results do not necessarily translate into general election victories.
Again - state primary votes do not necessarily lead to victory in November. Clinton won Oklahoma in February, will she win it in November - No. etc etc
By
Anonymous, At
24 April, 2008 13:56
Come on people of NC and Indiana its time to end this race and send the bitch to hell where she belongs!!
By
Anonymous, At
24 April, 2008 14:08
Yeah John that's what you morons said about Ohio and Pa. Watch her win both and really sink the scaredy cat.
By
Anonymous, At
24 April, 2008 14:31
55-45 is ten points. Trying to round it down to 9 is just laughable. If that's the way you want to be portayed as silly nit-pickers then be my guest. The media reports it as double digits and so does the rest of the mathematically apt world. I guess you're still living in the twentieth century too.
By
Anonymous, At
24 April, 2008 14:38
You are correct that the individual results were rounded to 55-45. But the actual spread between the two results was 9% (9.4% to be exact). This is only a big deal because some people (including Clinton) said they ahd to win by double digits. 9% is not double digits.
All I am trying to do is be mathematically accurate. Surely people want accuracy?
One other thing. Indiana is the hoosier state not the hoover state. But maybe I will get moaned at as nit-picking!
By
Anonymous, At
24 April, 2008 15:09
Tom 9.4 is in the tenth percentile, as it exceeds the ninth. You are mathematically wrong. Really such a pathetic ploy to say she didn't reach expectations. Obama claimed he closed the gap. Does that stolen digit come anywhere near closing a ten point lead? Now I suppose you want to claim that votes cast in Fl and Mich don't count because of a party dispute over delegates? You people are sinking to unbelievable depths of unethical behavior. This is why Obama is unelectable. His campaign tarnishes this country's people almost as badly as Bush's administration.
By
Anonymous, At
24 April, 2008 15:40
if it's 5 or higher you round up. 4 or lower you round down.Taniel writes there is "no favorite going in to the contest" speaking of Indiana, then writes "Clinton is not favored in Indiana". Also "Indiana is likely to be portrayed as more crucial" and in N.C. "the stakes are as crucial as those of Indiana"These statements are contradictions. And finally Clinton will not fall very far behind in the popular vote, but fall "further" behind.
By
Anonymous, At
24 April, 2008 19:53
Anon - first she had a 20% lead in polls in PA 4-6 weeks out. So 9 or 10% is half that -i.e. and improvement for Obama.
The only reason for stating correctly that the margin was 9% between the candidates (9.5% would be rounded to 10) is that double digits were very important to her. I didn`t say they were, she and the CW said so. So lets get the actual numbers out straight. Lets not mispeak or misremember the facts.
By
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25 April, 2008 08:27
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