It's all about turnout: Monday polls fail to set expectations

A wave of new polls released today should set the expectations for tomorrow's primary, but they instead confirm that the results will remain suspenseful to the end, as there is very little constitency across polls, neither in trendlines or in numbers:

• SUSA's final poll, first, shows a tightening of the race, with Clinton's lead to a 50% to 44% margin. Last week, Clinton was leading by 14%.
  
• The internal numbers show nothing surprising: Clinton is very strong among women (+23%), whites, and voters with no college degree (+15%).

• Suffolk University released its first Pennsylvania poll and finds a 10% lead for Clinton, 52% to 42%.
  
• An interesting internal number is that, of those who watched the ABC debate, 46% were more impressed by Clinton and 26% by Obama.

• Quinnipiac's final poll has Clinton gaining a point from last week and leading 51% to 40%. Quinnipiac confirms SUSA's finding that the key battleground tomorrow will be Southeast Pennsylvania.

• Rasmussen's final poll shows a tightening of the race, with Clinton leading 49% to 44% -- a 4% drop since the end of last week.

• Insider Advantage confirms that a double-digit victory is within Clinton's grasp, showing her up 49% to 39% -- with 12% undecided.

• Finally, PPP complicates things by finding Obama leading, 49% to 46%. This is the same margin that had been found last week.
• PPP is the only institute to have ever found Obama ahead in Pennsylvania -- but they have done so three times now. Their turnout model clearly is one that projects a lower turnout among whites and blue-collar voters.

The situation is closer to the one in Iowa than perhaps any other election since January 3rd. In other words, Pennsylvania will be decided by which groups turn out. From Iowa onward, both candidates tried to make inroads in the other's core constituencies, with Obama courting women, blue-collar voters and Hispanics. But in most contests the candidates failed to make such inroads (with Obama for instance falling short among these three groups respecively in NH, OH and CA) and thus the demographic logic was respected.

In Pennsylvania, demography favors Hillary Clinton; yet Obama has a clear shot at upsetting that logic. Whether or not he is in a position to win, he certainly could keep Clinton's winning margin dangerously low. But he will not do so by winning over Clinton's core constituencies but in winning the turnout war, with signs that blue-collar and Catholic voters might stay at home. If a large number do, Clinton will clearly be in danger. Not to mention the problem that even a 10% victory is not likely to do that much for her in the long-term.

Democrats should worry, however, for it will be difficult for them to recapture the groups of voters who might stay at home tomorrow; the fact that they could lose their enthusiasm in Clinton but not migrate to Obama suggest they are prime pick-up targets for the McCain campaign.