3.13.2008

Delegate breakdown, March 13th edition (still without the TX caucuses)

The post-March 4th delegate breakdown had Obama up 143.5 pledged delegates (without counting the Texas caucuses). A week later, Obama has won two contests -- Wyoming and Mississippi -- that help him make up some of the little ground he lost on March 4th.

I am still not including the delegate attribution out of the Texas caucuses. While that contest has been called for Obama now, only 41% of the precincts ended up reporting their vote publicly... the rest will just send delegates to the district-level convention. Most news agencies are now projecting a 9-delegate lead for Obama in the caucuses, but that's a very uncertain number: In most districts less than half of the precincts have reported, and in many of them Clinton and Obama are hovering around the threshold number (59%, 62% depending on how many delegates each district has) to get one more or one less delegate. This 9-delegate advantage could very easily change, and it does not seem logical to project the final results and include it in our totals before we get the final picture.

Frankly given how chaotic, unprepared and undemocratic the Texas caucuses ended up being I really see no reason why we should entertain the absurdity of their refusing to report results and pretend that they have.

Proof that delegate numbers can change with just a handful of votes being added to the totals: In our last delegate breakdown I reported that the California final allocation had changed once the provisional and absentee ballots had finished being counted, with Clinton losing 4 delegates and Obama gaining as many. This week, the same thing happened in Colorado. As the final voting total has been certified, Obama lost a delegate, and Clinton gained one: The new total is 35-20 instead of 36-19, and that change is now reflected in my delegate totals. And then we have the two states that voted this week:

Wyoming: 61% Obama-39% Clinton

  • Obama: 7 delegates
  • Clinton: 5
Mississippi: 61% Obama-37% Clinton

  • Obama: 19 delegates
  • Clinton: 14
In both races, Obama barely missed a better delegate breakdown -- just half a percentage point in Mississippi and he would have improved the statewide allocation from 1 to 3 delegates. And that brings us to the following totals of pledged delegates, including those from all the states that have already voted:

  • Obama: 1368.5
  • Clinton: 1223 delegates
  • Outstanding: 67

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5 Comments:

  • How many pledged delegates are left? How many would Hillary Clinton need to win to take the lead?

    By Anonymous C.S.Strowbridge, At 13 March, 2008 21:55  

  • Clinton got more than one delegate today:

    Associated Press

    Barack Obama picked up five more delegates than Hillary Rodham Clinton in Mississippi's Democratic primary Tuesday. But she erased the gain Wednesday after final election results became available from a couple of Super Tuesday contests.

    •In Mississippi, Mr. Obama won 19 delegates and Mrs. Clinton 14.

    •Mrs. Clinton gained four delegates in Colorado and one delegate in New York based on final results from the Colorado caucuses and New York primary Feb. 5. She won New York, and Mr. Obama won Colorado.

    http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politics/state/stories/DN-delegatebox_13pol.ART.State.Edition1.460df62.html

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 14 March, 2008 00:45  

  • http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hUPSXLSf9BMjfyPSCc2sdK8RtV8QD8VC4SHO0

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 14 March, 2008 00:47  

  • I had already accounted for 4 of these 3 Colorado delegates a month ago as most news agencies had finalized the delegate allocation at 36-19.

    By Blogger Taniel, At 14 March, 2008 05:21  

  • Questions:

    Has the delegate selection process always been this confusing? Have most states always been proportional or were they use to be winner-take-all?

    Does anyone know why this year is different? Or is it just luck that two candidates have become basically tied?

    Thanks.

    By Blogger Blair, At 14 March, 2008 16:23  

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