Obama wins the Wyoming caucuses

Obama scored one more caucus victory today by winning Wyoming. With 19 out of 23 counties reporting (including the state's 3 largest), Obama is leading 59% to 40% -- and that's a total of about 7,000 votes. The 4 remaining counties are only starting their caucuses now, and the results will be known in the coming hours. It is refreshing to deal with a caucus in a state that actually releases its results, unlike Texas where the count is stuck at 41% of precincts reporting.

Wyoming awards 12 delegates, and Obama has to cross 64% to obtain a 9-5 split. Considering that the remaining counties award fewer state convention delegates, it seems very unlikely that he will manage to do so, and the state's delegate breakdown will most likely be 7 delegates for Obama and 5 for Clinton. This represents somewhat of an improvement for Clinton, as one of the main reasons she is in so much trouble right now is that she was repeatedly crushed in caucuses -- especially in deep red states such as Wyoming. She got 17% of the vote in Idaho (for a 15-3 delegate split!), and was 20 delegates behind in Colorado and 24 in Minnesota.

Unlike most of these previous contests, Clinton did actively try to move numbers in Wyoming, as her husband campaigned there on Thursday and she did on Friday -- something she had not done in other caucuses, which she often deliberately shunned. There is no question that this is one of the biggest strategic blunders any presidential candidate committed in this cycle, and it is very surprising that it came from the seasoned Clinton campaign. More than anything, it speaks to their belief that the campaign would end on February 5th, whereas Obama knew that his only to win the nomination was to survive Super Tuesday and then take the lead in subsequent contests. The Clinton campaign now can only imagine what might have been if they had ran one or two ads in the cheap Idaho market or sent Clinton to Colorado and Minnesota for a few events.

Meanwhile, candidates are turning their attention to other upcoming states, starting with Mississippi (on Tuesday) but also those voting on May 6th (North Carolina and Indiana). It looks like Obama's strategy might be to minimize the importance of Pennsylvania on April 22nd to avoid making that state's primary -- in which Clinton looks to be starting with an edge -- decisive. Rasmussen came out with two interesting surveys today:

• In Mississippi, Obama is ahead 53% to 39%. Obama is ahead by 68% among black voters, and Clinton is up 47% among whites voters -- a stunning racial polarization that confirms the findings of yesterday's polls from ARG and IA.
• Meanwhile, Rasmussen found Obama leading 47% to 40% in North Carolina.

Both candidates have some good news in these surveys. Obama will clearly win in Mississippi and has an early edge in North Carolina. But Clinton can be reassured that she is not being blown away in Mississippi the way she was in some other Southern states, and that she has a fighting chance in North Carolina, a state that appeared to be rapidly moving away from her a few weeks ago. This is the second poll showing her trailing only narrowly, and especially if she benefits from momentum out of Pennsylvania she could hope to have a good night yet again on May 6th.