The Texas caucuses exemplify all that is wrong with the process

Forget the New Mexico primary. The Texas caucuses have to be considered the cycle's most absurd election. For one, the state was entirely unprepared to face the massive turnout yesterday: Some caucuses started hours late, others were simply too crowded to allow everyone in the room. And now, 36 hours after the caucuses started, only 41% of precincts have reported their total, putting Obama ahead 56% to 44%.

Most media outlets are now ready to estimate the delegate split and give the caucuses to Obama by a large margin based on these early results, under the assumption that the 40% that are in are representative of the state at large. But there is no reason to believe that to be the case, quite the contrary: 76% of Travis County (Austin) has reported, and 48% of Dallas County, and 45% of Tarrant County (Fort Worth), all Obama strongholds and all above the statewide percentage of precincts reporting (41%). Austin's numbers are especially important, given how many voters there are there, so that 76% of precincts reporting will significantly distort the results.

To make matters worse, TPM is now reporting that we might never know the results of the Texas caucuses! Here's why: The county caucuses elect delegates for the district convention which elect delegates for the state convention which elect delegates for the DNC convention. Complicated enough, but that's pretty much the same as in any other caucus. But the difference is that the caucuses "weren't required to report to the state party headquarters. The results that have come in came from a voluntary system set up in order to help the media get an idea of what to expect the final delegate result to be!" So every caucus will just send its delegates to the district convention without ever telling the press or anyone who it is sending?!

In other words, we might never know how the remaining 59% of precincts voted, and as I said before we're talking about a smaller portion of an Obama stronghold like Austin.

Now, other reports are indicating that Texas Party is responding that it simply wants accurate reports and is taking its time -- not that it won't release the results at all. If anything, this just confirms how chaotic Tuesday night was at these voting places. And if TPM's report is true, the Texas Party won't even have to divulge its results publicly: their results could be as unreliable and chaotic as the process was, but there would be little we could to do hold them accountable.

For all it's worth, estimations have Obama gaining 7 delegates out of the caucuses based on the results we have right now, which would mean he gets 3 more delegates than his rival out of the entire Texas process. Overall, that would mean Clinton only got a net 8 delegates out of March 4th. But as I said, I want to see more of an indication of how Texas caucuses are shaping out.