Delegate breakdown, March 7th edition

It had been two weeks since the last delegate breakdown, on February 23rd. But with 4 new contests being resolved this past Tuesday and a 5th changing its delegate allocation, the time has come to update the breakdown to reflect the new power dynamics of the Democratic race...which have in fact hardly changed.

I am not including the delegate attribution of the Texas caucuses here, for only 41% of precincts have reported (and we probably won't know more detail for a few weeks). While we roughly attribute delegate district by district, Clinton and Obama are posting results in many districts that are on the threshold of getting an extra delegate or losing one, so it makes no sense to try and calculate delegates when so many caucus locations are outstanding. Without the Texas caucuses, Clinton netted +15 delegates over Obama out of March 4th. Obama will probably pick up more delegates than Clinton in the caucuses and cut that number, though he will not overtake it entirely. This means that March 4th is the first Election Day in which Clinton has won more delegates (she lost the Nevada delegate race and the New Hampshire delegation split)!

First, California's final certified numbers came out, and they showed that a full 4 delegates had been shifted from Clinton to Obama after full counting of all the ballots. Clinton is now ahead 203 to 167 in that primary rather than 207 to 163, a rather dramatic narrowing of her edge by 8.

Texas primary: 51% Clinton-48% Obama

  • Clinton: 65 delegates
  • Obama: 61
Ohio: 54% Clinton-44% Obama

  • Clinton: 75 delegates
  • Obama: 66
Rhode Island: 58% Clinton-40% Obama

  • Clinton: 13
  • Obama: 8
Vermont: 62% Obama-36% Clinton

  • Obama: 9
  • Clinton: 6
This brings us to the following totals of pledged delegates, including those from all the states that have already voted:

  • Obama: 1343.5
  • Clinton: 1203 delegates
  • Outstanding: 67 (Texas caucuses)


  • Oh this is gonna be fun.

    Obama will win TX, in Delegates, AND the popular vote after the, get this, 1.2 MILLION caucus ballots are counted.

    Expect the MSM to pick this up soon, Kos, and Keith Oberman and NPR have already announced Obama winning TX.

    Can you Immagine, 1.2 MILLION caucus ballots, holy shit.

    PS, Obama Wins TX by 3 delegates, and 10K votes in total.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 08 March, 2008 01:47  

  • I don't see how you can count the caucus votes as part of the popular vote when all the the caucus voters have to vote in the primary first. It would really be voting twice.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 08 March, 2008 08:15  

  • Thats just it. No one, anywhere knows if anyone or everyone voted twice.

    You can caucus, and not participate in the primary. You can vote in the primary and not bother with the caucus.

    The only thing that we know is that there are like 3 million ballots. After counting them, Obama is going to be about 10K up.

    That sure as hell sounds like a win to me. You have more Ballots, and Delegates. What else is there???

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 08 March, 2008 09:20  

  • I am pretty sure that the rules were that the only way you can be eligible to caucus is by voting in the primary first.

    From a few different sources: "The Texas caucuses are a political event associated with primaries, the process by which voters in the U.S. state of Texas ultimately select their parties' nominees for various offices. The process as a whole is referred to as the Texas Two-step, after the partner dance of the same name, because Texans must first vote in the primary election in order to be eligible for caucusing."

    By Blogger KELL, At 08 March, 2008 11:14  

  • typo : 54 clinton 44 obama for ohio

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 08 March, 2008 16:44  

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