3.05.2008

The morning after: Postcripts on results and delegate count

Sorry for the late posting today. It was a late night and I am just getting to settle on an understanding of what happened yesterday. A full analysis will come soon but here are some pointers on the results and the delegate count.

In Rhode Island, it was unclear as of last night whether Clinton would get a 5 delegate lead or have to settle for a 12-9 split. Clinton got her 13th delegate after all, one of the only states (with Arkansas?) in which she really maximized the delegate potential. In Vermont, we already knew yesterday that Obama would have to settle for a 9-3 delegate split.

In Ohio, Clinton barely hang on to a double-digit victory when all of Cleveland was in (though there is still one outstanding county that has reporting no votes at all?!). Still unclear is how big a delegate lead Clinton will get here. My estimation of the delegate count -- going district by district -- gives her a 11 or 13 delegate lead, with a 5 delegate lead statewide and a 6 to 8 district-based delegate lead. The even-district rules hurt Clinton hurt, as a lot of the districts she did well in were 4 delegate districts. She got in the high 50s in a few of them, making those places a wash delegate wise. Other estimations have Clinton's lead a bit higher, so we will know more soon.

In Texas, Clinton has won the primary delegate count, something many people were doubting she could do with such a narrow victory. The count is 65-61 in her favor. As I indicated last night, she did so by getting a 3-1 split in border districts (the 19th, 20th, 21st in particular), places we were expecting to see 2-2 splits. And she had to split many districts 2-2 despite winning them. One big question mark is TX-26 where Clinton just barely missed the 62.5% mark. But in the early voting numbers, the count has Obama at 17,000 votes and Clinton at only... 1 vote, less than Joe Biden (who got 181). There is obviously a counting mistake there that could give Clinton an extra delegate once it is corrected.
In the Texas caucuses, the count appears to have been stuck at 36% reporting for almost 11 hours now, with Obama up 52% to 48%. I am not sure what is going on.

Overall, that means that Clinton scored a net 17 to 21 delegates (depending on what happens in TX-26 and the final Ohio count) over Obama -- prior to the Texas caucuses. The latter are unlikely to have such a big gap, so Clinton looks to have won the delegate count out of yesterday. Though not overwhelmingly, it's more than most people expected, even those who thought Clinton could pull off 3 victories.

In important congressional races, Denis Kucinich survived a tough primary challenge in OH-10 (approximately an 18% lead). In TX-14, Ron Paul survived a primary challenge as well. But the very interesting result is in TX-22, where Republicans selected Shelley Sekula Gibbs as their candidate against Rep. Lampson (in Tom Delay's former district). You might remember Sekula Gibbs was that infamous write-in candidate who then served in the House for 2 months, and attracted countless negative stories. She won this primary with only 29% of the vote, and it doesn't seem that she is going into the general in the strongest shape. (Update: I stand corrected from a very knowledgeable commenter, who points out that Texas has a runoff system in its primaries, so that Sekula Gibbs and Pete Olson will fight it out in an April 8th election for the right to take on Lampson.)

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2 Comments:

  • Great analysis, but one nitpick -- Texas primaries have a runoff rule, so Sekula-Gibbs hasn't won yet. (And quite probably won't, if she did that poorly as a semi-incumbent.) She runs against Pete Olson, a former chief of staff to Sen. Cornyn, on April 8th.

    By Anonymous Chicago Joe, At 05 March, 2008 12:37  

  • Excellent Analysis. Also, guess its a "typo" , but VT delegates have been split - 9-6

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 05 March, 2008 13:31  

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