3.05.2008

Wednesday polls: Clinton's comeback and general election indecision

Monday's polls hinted at a Clinton comeback in Ohio and in Texas, which prepared us for what came yesterday night. Now, surveys are registering Clinton's rise outside of Ohio and Texas, suggesting that her improved stance was not just related to her campaigning in those two states and that Democratic voters might have some buyer's remorse naturally:

  • First, Gallup's daily tracking poll has Clinton up for the first time since February 20th. She is leading 48% to 44%, and Gallup specifies that this is entirely due to interviews taken before the Ohio and Texas results were known. Clinton's national rise, says Gallup, started in Sunday -- just when polls started detecting some movement in OH and TX.

  • Rasmussen confirms Gallup's findings, and now shows Clinton leading 48% to 43%. This is the third day Clinton is up -- and increasing her lead -- after trailing her rivals for 3 weeks.

  • A PPP poll from North Carolina shows Obama ahead 48% to 44% against Clinton. Most recent polls from the state (including SUSA and Eton University) have shown Obama up by double-digits in this state, which votes on May 6th, but Clinton take comfort in the fact that all does not appear lost in at least one Southern state.
It is hard to believe we are still analyzing polls from the Democratic primary, but it does look like Clinton is gaining enough ground to make life very difficult for Obama. Just as we thought that Obama was amassing enough advantages -- in polls, in delegates, in endorsements -- to force his rival out of the race, Clinton is now surpassing him in national polls and showing renewed strength in states where conventional wisdom holds that she should lose.

We also get a few general election polls today, starting with national numbers:

  • Washington Post's poll has both Democrats trouncing McCain, especially Barack Obama who leads him 52% to 40%. Clinton leads by a narrower 50% to 44%.
  • Meanwhile, Cook Political throws the biggest insult at Hillary Clinton, excluding her from the poll! They only tested an Obama-McCain match-up, showing Obama leading by a comfortable 47% to 38%.
  • McCain (and Clinton, who is at least included) does get better in the Rasmussen tracking poll. He leads Obama 48% to 43%, and is up 46% to 45% against Clinton.

  • Finally, Rasmussen has a poll from Washington State, showing that McCain could very well be competitive in the Pacific states: He leads Obama 45% to 44% and Clinton 48% to 40%.
There is news that the McCain campaign is eyeing California as a Democratic state to really push for, despite the fact that no poll at all has for now shown McCain competitive in that state. But just as Giuliani was convinced he could put the Northeast in play, McCain wants to be able to expand the map. And now that he has wrapped up the nomination, he has a few months to look around, test some messages and poll some states to figure out the best general election strategy.

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5 Comments:

  • At least the polls in Washington state, which is a swing state, show Obama performing better than Clinton.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 06 March, 2008 12:46  

  • Hurrah for Hillary! More substance and experience and I guess it takes older people to understand the value of that.

    By Anonymous Linda B., At 06 March, 2008 14:11  

  • More substance?? Their respective policies are very similar and when was the last time a President got everything they wanted?
    The President can have a really detailed, great budget but it will get changed by congress. The President can have a healthcare taskforce lead by his wife but congress (even one controlled by his party) can change it or reject it. So having really detailed plans is not key to getting legislation enacted. Talking to people, involving them is. Who is better at that???

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 06 March, 2008 14:21  

  • Congratulations, Sen. Clinton, you've made the media understand that Obama is not the only choice out there, and he should be looked as critically as you have been. It's about time women break that Presidental glass ceiling, and with your experience and wisdom we have a chance to do that -- without the need of a "movement" of "fans" of Obama being the only news reported by the media.

    S.A

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 06 March, 2008 18:34  

  • Someone please explain Clintons superior experience? And if experience (rather than judgement) is so important to Clinton supporters then I assume in a Clinton-McCain GE you will vote for McCain because he has more experience.

    Obama has regularly said the campaign is about us and not him. Hillary regularly says she can do this and that. Not us. She is very self centered.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 06 March, 2008 20:22  

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