12.11.2007

Morning roundup: Thompson leaves NH, and Democrats look great in the new CNN poll

Fred Thompson has been polling between 2% to 4% in New Hampshire for about a month now, and he has now taken the only decision that a candidate can take in such circumstances: officially announce to great fanfare that you are abandoning the state. Thompson will not spend a single day in NH until the Iowa caucuses -- and will then probably go straight to South Carolina. He used to be a contender for second in Iowa, and look strong -- often in the lead -- in South Carolina, but all of that is now a distant memory. Huckabee has taken Thompson's niche making him the candidate with the least plausible scenario to get to the nomination.

Now, Thompson will probably stay at 4% in New Hampshire... which will not look very good at all. At least he can say that he made no effort and skipped it, and thus justify his poor showing. That has worked in the past: McCain skipped Iowa in 2000, came in behind lower-tier candidates, and then trounced Bush in New Hampshire by 18%.

  • CNN's general election poll
CNN released its new primary polls yesterday, and today we get treated to the general election numbers. As is often the case, there are 12 match-ups, pitting the top 3 Democrats against the top 4 Republicans... and notice that Thompson has been replaced with Huckabee, one more proof of Fred's growing irrelevance. The bottom line: Democrats lead and are above 50% in 10 out of the 12 match-ups. Only McCain manages to keep Democrats in check, tying Obama and leading Clinton:

  • Hillary Clinton loses to McCain 50% to 48%. But she leads Giuliani 51% to 45%, Romney 54% to 43% and Huckabee 54% to 44%.
  • Obama leads Giuliani 52% to 45%, Romney 54% to 41% and huckabee 55% to 40%. McCain and him tie at 48%.
  • Edwards runs much better than both Democrats: He demolishes Giuliani 53% to 44% and McCain 52% to 44%. And he truly reaches high numbers against Romney (59-37) and Huckabee (60-35).
Obama and Clinton's difference is within the margin of error -- but there is no doubt that Edwards runs massively better, in this poll at least. Also noteworthy is that McCain has been polling consistently strongest for a while now, but that did not use to be the case. After his campaign's collapse in July, McCain spent a while trailing badly in all kinds of polls.

It's also obvious that Dems start off with a clear edge in 2008: The lowest any of their candidates get is 48% -- adn they go as far up as 60%! Republicans can't must more than 50% -- with a low at 35%. A lot will happen in the next 11 months, but for now it's the Democrats' race to lose.

  • Rasmussen polls Utah, Wisconsin
Rasmussen released a general election poll from one of the tightest states in the country -- Wisconsin. And it looks sure to be tight again, though Barack Obama runs a bit ahead of Hillary Clinton. They also released a poll from Utah!

  • Clinton loses the markee match-up, 44%-42% against Giuliani. She does win 46-40 against Romney and 45-40 against Huckabee.
  • Obama beats Giuliani 45% to 42% and comes on top of Huckabee 48% to 37%.

  • No surprises in Utah, however, as the GOP candidates demolish Clinton (Bush won the state 71%-26%). Romney crushes her 74% to 21%, while Giuliani is a bit weaker, 62% to 26%. Huckabee is ahead 60% to 26%.
  • Meanwhile Romney also leads Edwards 74% to 21% and Obama 72% to 24%.
Not the most exciting of numbers, certainly, but it's rare to see a state solidly red these days. Though the day Utah becomes competitive...

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3 Comments:

  • I was expecting Romney to win at least 80% in Utah.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 11 December, 2007 12:17  

  • 60% is the commonly accepted benchmark for a landslide victory, and it's rare enough to reach. Neither Orrin Hatch nor Bob Bennett breaks 70% in Utah, and they're both popular Senators with deep ties in the state. Why on earth would you expect Romney to break 80%?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 11 December, 2007 12:35  

  • "Not the most exciting of numbers, certainly, but it's rare to see a state solidly red these days."

    In all fairness, isn't it true to say that it's pretty rare to see a state solidly blue these days, too? Even Massachusetts finds Hillary leading Rudy by just 48%-37%. It's early days and a bit of honesty always helps in reporting things . ..

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 11 December, 2007 14:08  

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