Rasmussen takes Clinton's slide, Huckabee's rise to a whole new level

Up to now, Hillary Clinton's slide was particularly visible in Iowa and somewhat in New Hampshire. National polls still show Clinton with a wide lead, and she seems to hold on to her lead in later states. Similarly, Mike Huckabee's rise is obvious in Iowa -- but he had not yet capitalized on his momentum on other early states. But today, Rasmussen released a South Carolina poll that shows Clinton's lead evaporating and Huckabee's suddenly emerging first!

• Clinton and Obama are in a toss-up, with Hillary leading 36% to 34%. Edwards comes far behind at 13%. Two weeks ago, Clinton led by 10%.
• And the shift is entirely due to African-American voters -- half of the Democratic electorate -- who massively shift towards Obama: two weeks ago, it was 46-45, today 51% of black voters back Obama, 27% back Clinton!


• Republican numbers are even more shocking, as Mike Huckabee is now ahead with 25%, followed by Romney and Thompson tied at 18%, Giuliani at 12% and McCain at 9%. Two weeks ago, Romney and Thompson were tied at 21% with Huckabee at 12%.

A look at the Pollster.com records show that Clinton had not been in single-digits in any poll since August (well except for that weird Clemson poll that had 50% undecideds, but that survey is hardly usable). Interestingly, Clinton and Obama voters choose the other as their second-choice, and Clinton also is the top second-choice of Edwards voters by a 2:1 margin -- suggesting that Hillary's slide is not due to an anti-Clinton mood. But if it's due to Obama's increasing appeal, is that not worse for Clinton at this point?

In particular, Obama appears to have finally broken through in his efforts to rally black voters around him. He has been courting them assiduously in the past years but Clinton remained very competitive. Look for confirmation in other polls, obviously, but it looks like Obama's targeted message is finally working -- which could spell huge trouble for Hillary.

As for the Republicans, this is obviously huge. If Huckabee wins Iowa, he could very well carry South Carolina -- and odds are he would choose to skip New Hampshire which is less suited to him, and concentrate in this Southern state. After all, Huckabee has much less money than some other candidates. But it is truly incredible to see him jumping on top of the field like this. As we have said many times and will say so again, it really testifies to the fact that the Republican base hated all of its candidates.

The Rasmussen daily tracking numbers are also dramatic -- though they are just a confirmation of yesterday's, so a bit less surprising than the South Carolina poll:

• Clinton continues her slide, now at 33% -- an all-time low. Obama is at 26%, so he has come back within single-digits, a stunning feat.
• In the Republican race, Mike Huckabee is confirming his lead: 21% today, versus 18% for Giuliani.

Finally, Rasmussen released general election match-ups pitting Hillary against Romney and Giuliani, though we all probably agree that once December hits primary polls are much more exciting. But let's still take a look:

• Clinton leads both Giuliani and Romney 46% to 43%.
• The most interesting finding might be in the favorability numbers: Clinton is at 44-55 (Rasmussen says it's an all-year low) and Giuliani has also sank at 44-49, which is much worse than usual for him.

The favorability numbers suggest that Clinton's carefully crafted image has been crumbling. She worked all year to improve her favorability rating, but the heat of the Democratic primary is surely now spilling over and hurting her overall image. We shall see how this plays out once we move from primary season to general election season -- whoever the candidates of both parties are.