10.10.2007

Morning polls: Clinton leads in all swing states

Quinnipiac just came out with a political junkie's dream: general election polls from Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. What more could one possibly ask for? The bottom line: Hillary Clinton is very strong. Not only does she crush the rest of the Democratic field in all three states, but she beats Rudy Giuliani in all of them! Granted, the margins are small, but that polls find Hillary's consistently well-positioned cannot be denied. Barack Obama and John Edwards both only win one match-up against Giuliani.

First, Florida:
  • Clinton beats Giuliani 46-43. She also leads 48-39 against Fred Thompson, 46-42 against John McCain, and 48-37 against Mitt Romney.
  • Obama loses against Giuliani (42-39) and McCain (41-39). But he convincingly beats Thompson (45-36) and Romney (43-36).
  • Edwards does a bit better since he only loses against Giuliani 43-41. He beats McCain 42-40, Thompson 44-36, and Romney 47-33.
  • In primary numbers (Florida votes in January, after all), Clinton crushes the Democratic side with 51%. Republicans have a much closer race: Rudy at 27%, Thompson at 19% and Romney at 17%.
  • In even better news for Clinton, her favorability is improving at 49-41. In fact, no one has a higher favorable rating - only Giuliani ties her at 49%.
Then Ohio, in which all Democrats beat all Republicans!
  • Clinton wins against Giuliani 46-40. She destroys all other Republicans, even McCain (48-38), and also Thomspon (50-36) and Romney (51-34).
  • Obama beats all them by small margins, and never reaches 50%: 44-38, 43-39, 44-33 and 47-31 respectively.
  • Edwards beats Giuliani the most comfortably, 46 to 36%. He also has trouble reaching 50%, however: 46-35 versus McCain, 48-31 versus Thompson, and 50-28 versus Romney.
  • Clinton's favorability rating stands at an excellent 49-42. No one even ties her 49% here.
In Pennsylvania, finally, only Clinton comes out on top versus Giuliani:
  • She beats him 48% to 42%. She also edges McCain 48-41, Thompson 50-39 and Romney 49-37.
  • Obama basically ties Giuliani by is down 45-43. He does beat the three other Republicans: 45-41 against McCain, 45-37 against Thompson, and 49-33 against Romney.
  • Edwards is down 1 versus Rudy (44-43) but convincingly beats McCain (49-47), Thompson (47-34) and Romney (49-32).
And the icing on the cake for the Clinton camp is how committed her voters seem to her, especially compared to her Republican counterparts:

In Ohio, 74 percent of her supporters say they are not too likely or not likely at all to change their mind. In Florida, 59 percent of her supporters are unlikely to change their mind; in Pennsylvania it's 56 percent. Giuliani voters are less committed, as no more than 39 percent in any state say they are unlikely to change their mind.

Keep in mind that Democrats only need to win 2 out of 3 of FL, PA, and OH. It would be almost impossible for the GOP to keep the White House if it loses two of these. In 2000 and 2004, Democrats got PA and Republicans carried (at least officially...) OH and FL. Clinton's leading in all three swing states with such a deep support should certainly give pause to all Democrats who question her electability.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen also came out with a poll this week, from Wisconsin, one of the closest states in both 2000 and 2004. Both Gore and Kerry ended up carrying its ten electoral votes, but Bush led most of the year against Kerry in this state -- sometimes by big margins. Rasmussen suggests 2008 will be just as close, though Hillary starts with an edge as she leads in all four of her match-ups. She comes out on top of Giuliani only by a point (43-42), and by three versus Thompson (44-41) and McCain (43-40). As always, her largest lead is against Romney: 45-35.

1 Comments:

  • When are the Democrats going to start dropping out? It looks to me like there's no reason to keep fighting around for the nomination, when it's quite clear who's going to win it... now, on the Republican side, we have a different situation.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 10 October, 2007 14:55  

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