Calendar Chaos: Democrats tear the Michigan primary to shreds
The chaos that is the primary calendar just took a whole new dimension. Michigan and Florida, the "rogue states", were engaged in a fight to the death with the DNC, who had taken action to strip them of their delegates if they didn't push back their primary dates. Also, the four early states (IA, NH, NV and SC) made the Democratic candidates sign a pledge to not campaign in Michigan and Florida. All the candidates obliged, fearful of upsetting the all-powerful Iowa and New Hampshire voters.
Today, the candidates have taken matters in their own hands to punish the rogue states. It was reported earlier this afternoon that Barack Obama, John Edwards, Bill Richardson and Joe Biden had filed paperwork to withdraw their name from the ballot in Michigan. Here is Edwards's statement:
We aren't that far off from Richardson's absurd statement a month ago in which he said that Iowa had a divine right to be first! Apparently disagreeing with the evident statement that Florida and Michigan are the source of all evil, the Hillary Clinton and Chris Dodd campaigns announced they would stay on the ballot.
Until now, the plan was that Democrats would hold some sort of beauty contest in Michigan and Florida, the same day that Republicans would vote in a more meaningful contest that would actually award some delegates to the candidates. Thus, Hillary Clinton still had an enormous amount to gain. She is a huge favorite in those big states, and it is likely that even a stumble in Iowa would not make her lead dissipate. By pulling off a victory in those states, she was supposed to offset any potential slip-up in the other early states in which her position was more precarious.
Even the pledge or the fact that the DNC was punishing Florida and Michigan was not going to hurt her that much. There would still be millions of voters going to the polls, and the press would report the results -- probably in the same headlines that would report the Republican winner. Would voters really have cared that the elections were beauty contests? More importantly, would they even have known?
Obama and Edwards seem to have sensed the danger and taken the matter in their own hands to completely kill off any firewall value Michigan held for Clinton. Odds that they will do the same with Florida. Now, Clinton's win will really have no value. Or might it still salvage her chances a little? Say Clinton comes in 3rd in Iowa and loses New Hampshire, would a massive win against Dodd in Michigan not allow her to at least stop the bleeding? This is a clear possibility but it would all be much less reliable.
Democrats are clearly playing with fire here: Michigan and Florida (I am assuming that the same thing will end up happening in the latter) are huge swing-states in the general election. The first is a must-win for Democrats, and the second could guarantee the White House for them. What are they thinking just tearing their primaries in those states to shreds? While the Republicans criss-cross the states for weeks, the local press will have a field day writing story after story about how Democrats are abandoning them... Will the Democratic nominee not start off the general election badly damaged in Michigan and Florida then? Clearly the sense of Dodd's today: "It does not benefit any of us if we are the nominee to pull our name of the ballot and slight Michigan voters."
Today, the candidates have taken matters in their own hands to punish the rogue states. It was reported earlier this afternoon that Barack Obama, John Edwards, Bill Richardson and Joe Biden had filed paperwork to withdraw their name from the ballot in Michigan. Here is Edwards's statement:
In Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada voters can look their candidate in the eye and determine who is best to bring about real change in America. In these early states issues matter more than money, celebrity and advertisements. Voters want and deserve a candidate who represents real people, not corporate special interests.
We aren't that far off from Richardson's absurd statement a month ago in which he said that Iowa had a divine right to be first! Apparently disagreeing with the evident statement that Florida and Michigan are the source of all evil, the Hillary Clinton and Chris Dodd campaigns announced they would stay on the ballot.
Until now, the plan was that Democrats would hold some sort of beauty contest in Michigan and Florida, the same day that Republicans would vote in a more meaningful contest that would actually award some delegates to the candidates. Thus, Hillary Clinton still had an enormous amount to gain. She is a huge favorite in those big states, and it is likely that even a stumble in Iowa would not make her lead dissipate. By pulling off a victory in those states, she was supposed to offset any potential slip-up in the other early states in which her position was more precarious.
Even the pledge or the fact that the DNC was punishing Florida and Michigan was not going to hurt her that much. There would still be millions of voters going to the polls, and the press would report the results -- probably in the same headlines that would report the Republican winner. Would voters really have cared that the elections were beauty contests? More importantly, would they even have known?
Obama and Edwards seem to have sensed the danger and taken the matter in their own hands to completely kill off any firewall value Michigan held for Clinton. Odds that they will do the same with Florida. Now, Clinton's win will really have no value. Or might it still salvage her chances a little? Say Clinton comes in 3rd in Iowa and loses New Hampshire, would a massive win against Dodd in Michigan not allow her to at least stop the bleeding? This is a clear possibility but it would all be much less reliable.
Democrats are clearly playing with fire here: Michigan and Florida (I am assuming that the same thing will end up happening in the latter) are huge swing-states in the general election. The first is a must-win for Democrats, and the second could guarantee the White House for them. What are they thinking just tearing their primaries in those states to shreds? While the Republicans criss-cross the states for weeks, the local press will have a field day writing story after story about how Democrats are abandoning them... Will the Democratic nominee not start off the general election badly damaged in Michigan and Florida then? Clearly the sense of Dodd's today: "It does not benefit any of us if we are the nominee to pull our name of the ballot and slight Michigan voters."
posted by Taniel at
3:35 PM
2 Comments:
Can there be any clearer sign that we live in a phony democracy?
Clinton didn't leave her name on the ballot as a stand for Michigan. She promised not to campaign in Michigan before the primary. It is a calculated decision based on the assumption that she will nominated by this fraud masquerading as democracy. She will then be free to claim she supported Michigan voters right to participate. If she cared at all about their rights, she would campaign there, vigorously.
The Party wants to disenfranchise millions of voters, and yet insulate the pre-selected candidate against the wrath of those voters.
By
Doug, At
10 October, 2007 06:16
I actually think it will be interesting to see how Mrs Clinton fares in a 2-horse race. Mr Dodd hasn't been anywhere near her in the polls - but for those Dems who won't just hold their nose and vote for Mrs Clinton, this primary could be a good chance for the Dems to see how electable she really is when the vote isn't being split by umpteen men in suits.
Come on Michigan, vote for Dodd!!
By
Anonymous, At
10 October, 2007 06:19
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