First poll out of New Mexico heartens Republicans

After a few days of worrisome silence, SurveyUSA finally released a new poll, and it is a fascinating one. They tested ten match-ups: Republicans Pearce and Wilson versus five Democrats (Bill Richardson, Tom Udall, Martin Chavez, Patricia Madrid, Don Wiviott). Here are the results:

• Bill Richardson crushes both Republicans: 60-36 against Pearce, 62-35 against Wilson.
  
• Tom Udall also wins by double-digits: 55-37 and 56-38.
  
• Martin Chavez does not fare so well at all. He goes down 56-35 against Pearce, and 48-44 against Wilson.
  
• Patricia Madrid loses 56-38 against Pearce, and ties Wilson by trailing 46-45.
  
• As for Wiviott, he is a unknown which shows in the results: He is destroyed by Pearce 58-23 and trails Wilson 51-34.

This is bad news for Democrats because... Bill Richardson and Tom Udall both announced in the past few days they are not running for the seat! That leaves Dems without the two candidates that are leading by huge margins and that would make the seat as easy a take-away as Virginia appears to be.

Martin Chavez just announced he would run today, and he looks surprisingly weak, especially against Pearce. This cannot just be because of name recognition (Chavez run statewide for governor in 1998, and is the third-term mayor of the state's largest city), so it should be questioned whether Chavez is viable. The negative reaction to his candidacy today among the Democratic base makes it even probable that the Green Party (a strong presence in New Mexico) would run a third-party candidacy against him in the general election.

It is curious that SurveyUSA did not poll Diane Denish, the state's Lieutenant Governor who could also jump in the race. As for Madrid, her weakness could indicate that Democrats just aren't as strong in the state as we thought they were. Madrid is a former statewide official who was deemed one of the Democrats' rising stars. The DSCC better move fast to find a truly competitive Democrat. Any chance Chuck Shumer can convince Tom Udall to reconsider?

Among Republicans, Wilson appears much weaker than Pearce. This could very well be due to her being implicated in the attorney firing controversy which might have pushed Domenici to his early exit. Thus, both parties are facing some tough choices ahead.