Calendar news: Iowa Dems pick date, while Florida Dems hurt themselves

• Iowa on January 3rd

So much for speculation that Iowa Democrats would pick a different day than Iowa Republicans to hold their caucuses. The GOP had already set its date as January 3rd, but Dems looked to be eyeing January 5th. But news broke today that the state party is about to formally decide to hold the caucuses on January 3rd. There is still a small chance that this might be reversed at the actual meeting on Sunday, but it seems unlikely. So Iowa caucuses will be held on the same night for both parties -- certainly a disappointment for political junkies who were excited about two Election Days.

This still leaves South Carolina and Michigan eyeing two primary days, however. More importantly, this could have a major influence on the date of the New Hampshire primary. One of the main reasons why Garder might move the primary to December is that Democratic candidates would only be in the state for 2 days if Iowa voted on the 5th, which would mean that the nation's attention would only be centered on his state for two-three small days. With Iowa finishing it all off on the 3rd, Garder might feel that 5 days is acceptable enough that New Hampshire can be on January 8th. Though there would still be two problems: Michigan's threat to move the day of the NH primary, and the Nevada and Wyoming caucuses.

• Democrats hurting in Florida

Republicans have been eager to seize on the controversy between the DNC and Florida Democrats (who are threatening to sue the national party if it strips it of delegates) to encourage Florida Dems to switch parties. While the RNC will also sanction Florida, it will not be the same scale. Today, a new Quinnipiac poll suggests that Democrats might indeed be hurting: a full 22% of voters say the calendar controversy is making them less likely to vote for the Democratic nominee next year! And this reflects itself in the general election match-ups:

• Clinton now trails Giuliani 46-43. In the last Quinnipiac poll a few weeks ago, she led by the same margin. She only leads by a point against McCain (44-43), by 5 against Thompson (46-41), by 9 against Romney (49-37).
• Giuliani does well against the other Dems, beating Obama 47-40 (it was 42-39 last month) and Edwards 44-41.
• Obama also ties McCain at 42, defeats Thompson 43-39 and Romney 44-37. Edwards beats McCain 42-40, Thompon 47-36 and Romney 48-34.

Florida and Ohio are two states Democrats are dying to win -- and they are the two red states from 2004 that are moving the least in Democrats's direction in polls! Virginia, Iowa, Missouri... all are more consistently blue now than Ohio and Florida are, which is rather strange. And it certainly seems that Democrats are shooting themselves in the foot with the calendar controversy.