Morning polls: Everything as usual in New Hampshire

• Romney, Clinton ahead in New Hampshire

I believe we have not seen a New Hampshire primary poll for a little while, so it's good to see some confirmation that nothing has changed and that Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney still have the edge in this St. Anselm College poll:

• Among Democrats, Hillary leads 43% to Obama's 22% and Edwards's 14%.
• Romney leads the Republican pack with 32.5% versus Giuliani's 22%. McCain comes in third at 15% followed not by Thompson but by... Ron Paul who gets 7.5%!

Hillary Clinton's lead is of course particularly strong. Before people compare her to Howard Dean, consider that her support is more entrenched. People know Clinton in a way they did not know Dean, and her campaign is so much more organized she is not likely to let her lead evaporate in a day. Furthermore, as I have shown time and time again, Obama used to be much closer throughout the year and started a slide that left him systematically 20 points behind earlier this summer. So his being so far behind is not a reflection of low name recognition, for that wouldn't explain the negative trendline.

On the Republican side, this is what Romney absolutely needs -- and it could very well get him the nomination. He is still leading in Iowa convincingly, and if he stays semi-this-strong in NH until then a caucus victory would ensure he carries the momentum to NH and wins there. If NH votes before Iowa, well, then Romney would have to work harder since his NH lead is usually weaker and less consistent. But if it pulled it off, even in December, it would give him a ton of press at an ideal time and raise his name recognition dramatically, guaranteeing that he can compete everywhere in January. As for the other candidates -- Giuliani MUST place second in both IA and NH if he wants his "surviving January strategy to work," Thompson would be out of the race in a heartbeat if he is fifth in NH, and McCain is lurking behind.

• Hillary has no trouble in Minnesota

The latest SUSA poll is one of Minnesota's general election, and Hillary Clinton has nothing to worry about:

• As most of the polls we have seen, McCain is the strongest, but he still trails 50% to 43%. Clinton leads Giuliani 50% to 41%.
• Clinton stunningly crushes the other Republicans 57% to 37% against Thompson, 57% to 34% against Romney, 60% to 30% against Huckabee and 61% to 28% against Ron Paul.

Remember, Minnesota is not a strong blue state anymore. Bush competed here very heavily and Minnesota remained a very close swing state throughout the election. For Clinton to get as high as 57% even major Republicans, even if they are not well-known, is stunning and might testify to Minnesota's turning away from Republicans that started massively in 2006 (when Klochubar won a Senate open seat that was supposed to be very competitive against the best the GOP had to offer by 20 points). Senator Coleman better watch out.

• Hillary has national leads

The Cook Political Study/RT Strategies released a national general election poll yesterday that shows slightly Hillary Clinton expanding her lead. She leads Giuliani 43% to 39%, and Thompson 46% to 37%. In an interesting phenomenon also observed in the other day's LA Times poll, Hillary Clinton rallies her base slightly better than Giuliani does -- people have to remember that being such a "polarizing, divisive" figure also has its benefits.

Also, their leads might be within the margin of errors sometimes, but the consistency with which Democrats now lead all Republicans in trial heats is remarkable. Whether the LA Times poll, this poll, the last Rasmussen poll, Clinton is opening up a gap between her and Giuliani.