Morning polls: Clinton solid in New Jersey, Oregon

• Romney still ahead in New Hampshire
  

A day after the St. Anselm College poll had Mitt Romney up 10 in New Hampshire, Rasmussen comes up with a poll with similar results: Romney leads with 28%, following with Rudy Giuliani's 19% and John McCain's 16%. Mike Huckabee confirms his strength in early states by polling at 10%, far ahead of Fred Thompson's 6%.

The most instructive number here is almost Thompson's. Yesterday, he came in behind Ron Paul! Does Thompson really expect to pass on Iowa and New Hampshire (as NH newspapers have accused him of doing) and suddenly strike in South Carolina? This strikes me as even more problematic a strategy than Giuliani's "January survival." At least Giuliani can hope to come in second in both Iowa and New Hampshire, keeping himself alive to fight another day. If Thompson comes in third-fourth in Iowa, and then third to fifth in New Hampshire, how much will he have left in him to carry on to the South?

• New Jersey likes Clinton and Giuliani
  

Rutgers's new poll of New Jersey confirms what we have seen repeatedly from the tri-state area. Rudy Giuliani would make it much more competitive than usual, and only Clinton, also from the area, would meet his home-base appeal. And of NY, CT, and NJ, the latter has often been the most difficult for Clinton, as Giuliani has often tied even her in the Garden State. This new poll at least brings good news for Democrats, as Hillary Clinton leads Giuliani 49% to 39%. On the other hand, Giuliani leads Barack Obama 44% to 41%. Both Giuliani and Clinton crush their field's primary, which is to be expected there, so I will pass on reporting the numbers.

• Clinton ahead in Oregon
  

SUSA's daily poll today is of Oregon, a very tight swing state that has not always been easy for Democrats. But Clinton appears solid in this round of numbers:

• She leads Giuliani 50%-45% and McCain 49-44%. While both leads are small, she at least reaches or gets close to the 50% threshold.
• She has much bigger leads against other GOPers: 54% to 40% against Thompson, 57% to 37% against Romney, and 56% to 36% against Huckabee.
  

All enough for Democrats to not panic about the state (there is much more to worry about in, say, New Jersey), but not enough to put it in the bag, especially if the supposedly more moderate Republicans win the nomination.

• North Carolina Senate
  

Speaking of useless polls, Rasmussen has released a survey of NC Senate... that only matches up Senator Dole with Governor Easley, who is not running. NC has been a recruitment disaster for Dems, and at least the poll shows just how much Democrats are missing on: Easley leads Dole 50% to 42%. His entry could have made this race a top-notch pick-up priority, whereas now it is probably going to not even be really competitive. Maybe the DSCC can give a call to Easley again?