10.20.2007

Edwards hits Clinton's electability, while Clinton leads in Missouri

Electability has always been one of the main arguments of Barack Obama and John Edwards, who argue that Hillary Clinton is too polarizing and divisive to win the general election. Yesterday, the Edwards campaign launched yet another offensive on this theme. And Missouri state Senator Wes Shoemyer, an Edwards supporter, came out saying: "Sen. Clinton presents somewhat of a lightening rod effect that John does not bring with him to the state of Missouri. And I think that having that on the top of the ballot, we’ll move right down."

Very well, this is the standard argument. Clinton will concede purple states. Only, this argument will fail if polls consistently disprove it. Earlier this week, a poll found Clinton leading Giuliani in Kentucky. And today, a new SUSA poll has Clinton up big on all Republicans in... Missouri. Not the best way for Shoemyer to prove his point:

  • Clinton leads Giuliani by a solid 50-43 margin.
  • She beats Thompson (52-42), Romney (50-41) and Huckabee (51-40) by consistent margins, while she demolishes Ron Paul 54% to 32%.
  • Just like in Kansas and in Ohio, the strongest Republican is John McCain -- who only leads 48% to 45%.
  • The poll did not test Edwards and Obama.
This is a marked improvement for Clinton since last month's SUSA poll from Missouri, in which she lost against Giuliani and had small leads against the other candidates. Obama and Edwards both led all match-ups last month, so they would surely have strong leads here too. What is this improvement due to then? To Hillary's improved image, or to the deterioration of the Republican brand? Also, McCain's strength is a fascinating phenomenon -- the September wave of SUSA poll did not test McCain, so this is the fist time we are realizing just how much better he is running in most of the SUSA polls.

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1 Comments:

  • The Missouri Poll does not address Clinton's electability relative to Edwards and Obama. So... it is pretty useless to determine which leading Dem is a the most competitive in the state.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 20 October, 2007 16:22  

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