10.18.2007

Another Iowa poll shows Clinton, Romney leading

Strategic Vision, a Republican polling firm that comes out with polls regularly, released its own Iowa poll last night on the heels of the Rasmussen poll that showed Clinton up by double-digits and Romney ahead by a smaller margin. Strategic Vision also has Clinton and Romney leading their respective fields, albeit the numbers are different.

  • On the Republican side, Romney is ahead by a significant margin. He has 27%, 14 points more than his closest competitor, Rudy Giuliani. Giuliani, at 13%, is in a second place tie with Huckabee at 12% and Thompson at 10%. McCain is fifth at 5%.

  • On the Democratic side, Clinton posts 28%, ahead of Obama at 23%, Edwards at 20%, and Richardson at 9%. Biden has a surprising 6%!
Not as big a lead as yesterday for Clinton -- but she doesn't need a big win in Iowa. This is her one weak state, and she would be delighted to just not stumble. Naturally, Obama and Edwards are within striking distance, and Iowa is likely to come down to the wire. It will be interesting to see whether Clinton will extend her lead in Iowa in the next few months the way she has done nationally and in New Hampshire. She has been able to move the numbers for now - she consistently trailed in Iowa earlier this year.

On the Republican side, Romney is still the overwhelming favorite to win the caucuses. But the story seems to be Mike Huckabee, who is contending very strongly for second place at this point. He rose since the August straw poll -- and isn't looking back. A second place showing here could boost his candidacy -- but would it be enough to propel him in the first tier? Rasmussen's tracking poll suggests that he might! Huckabee is at 9% now today, his highest ever, only 2 points behind McCain.