VA-11 and OH-07 getting away from Democrats

Last week-end's decision by the Virginia Republican Party to hold a convention rather than a primary to select its nominee was a blow to Rep. Tom Davis, who had been preparing for years to run for an open seat. This means that more conservative Jim Gilmore will probably have the upper-hand in the nomination fight. I speculated the other day that this might lead Davis to not run, a terrible loss for Democratic hopes. VA-11 is leaning Democratic, and an open seat would most certainly favor Democrats.

Davis spoke at the National Press Club yesterday, and his comments strongly indicated that he was not planning on running for Senate -- and would thus presumably choose to run for re-election in the House:

There are other races, this isn't the only shot. You've got a very vulnerable guy [Jim Webb] sitting there in the other Senate seat right now who may or may not run in four years. And you know what? If you don't go to the Senate, so what? I've been a committee chairman in the House. I've got my portrait hanging on a wall. I've been pretty productive legislatively ... If I have to spend eight months slogging through a party [nominating] convention, talking to 15,000 Republicans around the state where they're going to ask you how conservative you are, that does not set you up very well for a general election ... [and Democratic candidate Mark Warner] has a good reputation and he's riding high ... I'm reluctant to take people's money for a Senate race that I'm not going to run.

This does not mean that Democrats have lost all hope in VA-11... but a non-open VA-11 would at best for Dems be rated "lean Republican." Right now, it is still rated Lean Takeover on my House ratings. There is still the possibility that Davis might opt out of the Senate race AND retire from the House -- but it looks unlikely at this point.

Meanwhile, Democrats knew newly opened-up OH-07 was too Republican to be at the top of their pick-up opportunities. But how difficult things might be became evident today when the Democrat who was supposed to be the strongest contender announced he will not run and said he finds it very unlikely the GOP will lose?! Sheriff Gene Kelly declared that, “I hate to concede already, but it’s the truth,I don’t know of a Democrat out there that can take on [state senator] Steve Austria – unless someone will move into the district."

So could Steve Austria might get a free pass? Democrats, after all, have many other options to pursue in Ohio: the first, second, 15th, and 16th districts. Though there is no question that Democrats could get this seat with the right candidate: Democrat Ted Strickland prevailed with 58% in the district in the governor's race in 2008.