Will Obama really put the South in play?

SUSA released polls from Alabama and Kentucky today, matching up the main Republicans against the main Democrats. First, it is important to note that all the Democrats significantly cut into the Republican margins in this very Republican states (Bush won Alabama by 25 points in 2004, and Kentucky by 20).

• In Alabama, Clinton loses by 11 against Giuliani, and reaches 41%. She loses by 13 against Thompson, but only by one against Romney.
• Edwards does better than Clinton: He loses by 10 against Guiliani and by 12 against Thompson, but wins by 6 against Romney (45-39%). While it amazing that a Democrat is not only competitive but winning in Alabama, there are about 8-9% more who say they are undecided in matchups involving Romney, and these will presumably Republicans who will break for Romney once they get to know him.
• Obama, however, does much much worse: He loses by 27% against Giuliani, 26% against Thompson and 17% against Romney.
• Internal numbers tell much of the story: Against Giuliani, Obama wins 19% of the white vote (against 71%). Clinton wins 30% (against 60%). They both win the same percentage of the black vote. Clearly, Obama's weakness comes from Alabama's white population racist reluctance to vote for a black candidate.
  

Obama's weakness in a state Democrats have no need of winning (if they were to win Alabama, it would probably mean they were on their way to an electoral college blowout) would not be newsworthy if it wasn't for Obama's claim that he would put Southern states in play. To bolster his claim that he is the most electable candidate, Obama has claimed he would "redraw the political map" and be able to carry Southern states by increasing black turnout by about 30%. He had not taken into account the fact that the white vote would impulsively turn against him, while they would be most eager to vote for the Southern white man. (It is probably the need to fight things like this that appeal to me the most in the possibility of an Obama nomination.) And despite it not being as deeply Southern as Alabama, the results in Kentucky are pretty much the same:

• Edwards does incredibly well: He loses by only 7 against Giuliani, but leads in a statistical tie against Thompson (by 1) and leads Romney by a stunning 10 point margin!
• Clinton loses against both Giuliani and Thompson (by 10 points and 5 points) and ties Romney at 46%.
  
• Obama loses against Giuliani by 18, against Thompson by 17 and against Romney by 2.

In other bad news for the Obama campaign Marc Ambinder reports today that Clinton is developing an aura of invincibility which is pushing donors towards her in a sort of massive bandwagon effect and making them now think he is not worth their time.

Also today, Obama had to face the awkward news cycle of Jesse Jackson blasting him for "acting like he's white" for being "too tepid" in his criticism of the events in Jena, LA. Jackson came out with a statement later in the day re-affirming his support of Obama's campaign and said he did not recall saying that Obama was acting white, without fully denying the quote.