Everyone is polling New Hampshire

Rasmussen just came out with polls from New Hampshire, and its first test of the Senate race since Jeanne Shaheen announced she was jumping in the race.

While many polls show Shaheen with a huge double-digit lead against the incumbent, Rasmussen tells another story: Shaheen is only leading 48% to 43%. The internal numbers confirm this is not a blowout: Shaheen leads by 15 against women, and loses against men by only 5. And the favorability ratings reveal that the GOP's weakness does not come from Sununu himself: His rating (50-43) is almost the same as Shaheen's (51-44).

Yes, these are still naturally great numbers: A Democratic challenger who hasn't been in her state's public life for 5 years now is leading an incumbent Republican. But it is worth saying that Shaheen entered the race partly because the polls promised her a blowout victory, and that she was reluctant to enter to leave a cushy job at Harvard for a risky campaign trail. And the first poll released after her entry shows a much tighter race than she was hoping for - especially when compared to yesterday's Virginia numbers.

Rasmussen also polled the presidential primaries in NH. On the Democratic side, Clinton is blowing out her competitors with 40%, against 17% for Obama, 14% for Edwards, and 11% for Richardson. This is a much bigger gap than we usually see in New Hampshire, and would indicate that the only state in which Clinton is in any danger of stumbling is Iowa. The bad news for the Clinton campaign is that Iowa is the first state to vote, but with numbers like this in later states, it appears that Clinton has some room to spare before being really in danger.

The Republican numbers, however, are fascinating. A month ago, Romney had a twelve point lead in the Rasmussen poll. Now, his lead is down to an insignificant three points: He leads 25% to 22% for Giuliani, with Thompson right behind at 19%. This confirms that Romney has been losing much of the momentum he had gained over the summer, most of it benefiting Thompson. Romney's entire strategy is predicated on his doing well in Iowa and in New Hampshire, so he has to recover from this decline. The good news for him is that he still has his Iowa lead: If he tied for first in NH polls just before Iowa and then wins the caucuses, he will likely coast to victory in NH as well.

Update

We are getting new NH polls left and right, and they confirm the Rasmussen results.

• First up is American Research Group with a Senate poll. Shaheen is leading 46% to 41%. Independants are breaking for Shaheen by 11 points. Once again, this is awful news for Sununu: An incumbent senator barely above 40% this far out very rarely wins re-election. But look at the trendlines: In June, this same ARG poll had Shaheen crushing Sununu 57% to 29%. Even the March results were better for Democrats, as Shaheen was then leading by 10%.

• Second is a primary poll from Franklin Pierce University. The Democratic numbers are roughly the same as the Rasmussen poll: 36% for Clinton, 18% for Obama, 12% for Edwards and 10% for Richardson. Republican numbers are a tiny bit different, as this poll shows Romney with a slightly bigger lead: 30% to Giuliani's 23%. But Thompson is much weaker in this poll, fourth at 8% behind McCain's 14%. Romney's edge in NH is still somewhat intact - but things could change if Thompson starts rising, as he would probably take votes away from Romney.