Democrats look good in Virginia and Minnesota, but do they still have an opening in Kentucky?

• Can Mark Warner be stopped?
  

The main news out of senatorial races today comes from Virginia, where SUSA released a new poll pitting Mark Warner against his competitors. The numbers are very similar to the ones reported by Rasmussen last week: Warner beats former Governor Gilmore 60% to 32%, and he crushes Rep. Tom Davis 62% to 27%.

Many might say that this due to the voters' unfamiliarity towards Gilmore and Davis. And it is certainly true that Davis has low name ID (46% of voters are unfamiliar with him, against only 5% for Mark Warner), but that is not the case for Jim Gilmore. Further, SUSA also polled a matchup between Mark Warner and George Allen (defeated by Webb in 2006 after the infamous "macaca" incident). Allen is very well known by voters, and is still relatively popular, but he also gets crushed by 19 points: 56% to 37%.

Allen is not running and will not run in 2008, but this goes to show that Warner's support is real and holds across the board. Warner's is also very well liked: His favorability rating stands at 50% (against only 14% unfavorable). Republicans like to say that Warner has never been truly challenged and that they will knock him down, but Warner will now have months to reintroduce himself to voters while Republicans split in a divisive ideological primary. Virginia is more than ever leaning Democratic.

• New seat opens up in the House

One more Republican has announced he will not seek re-election in the House. Jim Ramstad represents Minnesota's 3rd district, which is very tight. Bush won by 3 points against Kerry in 2004. Ramstad was able to win the seat rather comfortably by being one of the most centrist House Republicans, but an open seat will likely feature a very competitive seat... and one more headache for Republicans. The GOP has enough open seats to fight off nationally as it is (Check out my House Ratings), and more retirements like this one from long-time members who do not want to be stuck in the minority are to be expected in the coming weeks. Ramstad said at his press conference, “There are going to be a number of retirements, I assure you, in both parties.”

• Contrasting rumors out of Kentucky

Democrats are pondering whether they could defeat Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Republican Kentucky thanks to the candidacy of Attorney General Greg Stumbo. Even with Stumbo in the race, the race would still be a longshot for Democrats -- but they would at least be in a position to exploit potential vulnerabilities that might come up or a sudden Allen-type slip-up. At the very least, they could keep McConnell busy at home and prevent him from helping other Republicans around the country.

It started being widely reported over the week-end that Stumbo, who has formed an explanatory committee, was going to drop out of the race before even getting in. This led to disappointment for Democratic activists who were hoping to put seats like KY-Sen in play. But others are today pushing back on those rumors. So it's still anyone's guess what Stumbo will do. In any case, this race is mostly on hold until this November's gubernatorial election (in which the Democratic challenger is on course to crushing the ethically challenged Republican incumbent).