Good news and bad news for the Clinton Campaign

Many Democrats believed until very recently that Wesley Clark would enter the 2008 presidential race, mixing it up late in the game just as he did in 2004. Well, it shall not be. It had already become quite clear that it was now way too late for him to jump in the race, but he ended all possible speculation by announcing he was endorsing Hillary Clinton. He said, "Hillary Clinton has the experience, good judgment and the battle tested character to face the challenges ahead."

It is worth noting that this is not surprising. Clark has always been closed to the Clintons who were rumored to be driving his candidacy in 2004. This could be a significant endorsement for three reasons:

1. Clark is a favorite of online activists, the group most skeptical of Clinton. Endorsements are never important enough to move people's opinions in profound ways. But if similar developments occur in the coming weeks, will it mark the beginning of a new era in Clinton-blogosphere relations?
   
2. Clark's endorsement is happening the same week as the MoveOn "Betray Us controversy." Republicans like Giuliani have tried to link MoveOn.org to Clinton and argue that she is weak on military matters and not respectful of decorated generals. Well, Clark was a rather high ranked as supreme commender of NATO, so this endorsement should give Clinton some cover and room to strike back at the GOP.
   
3. This steps up speculation that Clark might be tapped as Clinton's vice-president. With Mark Warner's entry in the VA Senate race, one of the favorites of veepstakes is out. People like Clark or Webb will be talked about much more.

And then comes the bad news. The DNC and the Florida primary party have been engaged in harsh war of words for the past few weeks. No one really expected the Florida Democrats to back down, but it appears this is exactly what they are planning on doing:

While state party officials insist no ''consensus'' has been reached on what the party should do, there is a growing recognition that within the next week Democrats will announce a plan that renders the primary vote non-binding in order to comply with national party rules. Florida Democrats will instead decide some time after Jan. 29 which presidential candidate is the winner of the state's delegates to the national convention. One suggested plan is to have Democrats vote by mail, although another proposal that may win out calls for Democrats to hold a state convention sometime after Feb. 5.

I've written over recent weeks about why even DNC punishments would not reduce Florida's advantage significantly enough to actually threaten the Clinton campaign. Whether or not there were delegates at stake the media would still treat the contest seriously and report it the results, especially because the GOP contest will happen the same day and will not be a beauty contest. Even if Florida Democrats back down and say themselves that no delegates are at stake on January 29th, the same caveats will apply: Republicans have a contest the same day, Democrats will have a winner, newspapers will mention it, etc. But if the Florida party itself says that this is a beauty contest, well then it would become very hard for the Clinton campaign to recover from potential early state trouble with a Florida firewall strategy!

This makes Clinton's showing in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina much more important. And makes news like this much more significant:

John Edwards has more support from Service Employees International Union members than any other presidential candidate, though not enough yet for an endorsement, said Andy Stern, president of one of the largest U.S. labor groups. About 2,000 of the union's leaders will meet Sept. 17 in Washington to listen to pitches from the major Democratic candidates and take a straw poll that will help guide the group's endorsement, Stern, 56, said in an interview. "Edwards has done an awful lot with leaders and members in our union,'' said Stern, who expects a decision on whether and who to endorse by the end of October. He said Senators Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Clinton of New York have strong support within the union, too, and together may be able to fend off any endorsement of Edwards, a former North Carolina senator.

Labor is powerful in Iowa, and if Edwards were to pick-up endorsments like the SEIU, that might be very well be enough to carry him to victory in the caucuses. This is Clinton's worst nightmare: Being at the mercy of the smallest developments in the early states is the surest way for a frontrunner to derail.