Poll Diary: Dole vulnerable, California staying Dem, and Florida always close

• How vulnerable is Elizabeth Dole?

The Democratic leaning Public Policy Polling institute released a poll testing NC Senator Dole's vulnerability. Dole is favored to win re-election, but many Democrats still hold some hope of defeating her. She is viewed as particularly weak since her disastrous tenure as NRSC chairman in 2005 and 2006. No Democrat has yet declared against her; Governor Easley who cannot run for re-election in 2008 due to term limits would be a formidable candidate, but he has refused to run. Right now, after other Democrats passed the race, the main potential challenger is State Senator Grier Martin, an Afghanistan veteran from Raleigh.

PPP shows Dole comfortably leading, 45% to 30%. She is under the threshold of50% under which incumbents are deemed vulnerable, but it seems PPP did not push undecideds at all given that 20% of undecideds is a high number. PPP is a Democratic polling firm, so not pushing leaners could be a way to artificially show Dole below 50%. Yet, there is no doubt that at 15 point edge over a complete unknown is not a particularly impressive feat. The NC race is not at all part of the first-tier of Democratic opportunities, but it lurks in the background.

Later in the poll, PPP gave respondents a positive biography of Martin without including any information about Dole and then asked for a new voting performance, and Martin was then shown to lead by 7%. While this is a mostly useless exercise that has no resemblance to what will happen on the trail, it at least shows that there are enough voters open to looking for an alternative to Dole.

• Democrats ahead in California, but Republicans have a trump card

Rasmussen released a general election poll from California today. It shows Clinton leading all Republican contenders by healthy margins. Giuliani is the closest trailing by 10%, while Thompson trails by 11, McCain by 19, and Romney by 22. Clearly Giuliani's biggest potential is to close much of the gap in coastal Democratic states like CA, NJ, NY or CT. But even he trails by double-digits (just like Bush, who lost California by 10 points in 2004). California remains firmly in the Democratic column.

However, the big fear for Democrats is that the Republican plan to challenge electoral rules in California might pass. The petition drive is under-way right now to put a proposal on the June 2008 ballot that would attribute the state's electoral votes by congressional district rather than on a winner-take-all basis. This would give the Republicans 20 to 25 extra electoral votes, greatly endangering the possibility that a Democrat might win the White House.

Rasmussen asked about this: 47% of California voters think this is a good idea, versus 31%. While this might seem worrisome, it is a well-accepted fact that a proposition needs to poll way above 50% to have any chance of passing come election day (most undecideds vote "no" when they are in the voting booth). And once people are told that this would increase the number of GOP electoral votes (an argument Democrat will make sure is widely disseminated), only 38% are left supporting it (versus 41%).

But even if Democrats remain likely to fight this off, this will prove a costly and exhausting distraction. This is really the last thing they should be worrying about in the coming months.

• Florida's primary

The GOP primary of Florida is shaping up to be a key contest. While the state is likely to be less important in the Democratic race (Clinton is winning in a blow-out, and the new ARG poll shows her winning 47% to Obama's 19%; but Florida's importance is rapidly diminishing as Florida Dems are losing their war against the DNC), the GOP contest is much more close at this point than even Iowa and New Hampshire are where Romney has a clear and consistent lead. With that in mind, here are some competing polls out these past two days:

• ARG sees the rebirth of McCain! Giuliani still leads with 26% (down 7 in two months) but McCain has more than recovered from his July collapse. He is now back up at 18%, in front of Thompson (16%) and Romney (14%).
• Mason-Dixon tells a different story: Giuliani and Thompson are basically tied (24-23%), Romney is at 13% and McCain is at 9%. This is very similar to the Insider Advantage poll that has Giuliani and Thompson at 23-22%, Romney at 12% and McCain at 11%.

The polls might be different (especially in regards to how close Giuliani and Thompson are), but it shows that Florida polling is much less consistent than IA and NH polls. And if you add to the midst the possibility that Romney sweeps Iowa and New Hampshire, how much would he rise in Florida? Probably enough to threaten Giuliani and Thompson. Those two would then need to win Florida to survive, whereas Romney could run the table and become the nominee with success in Florida. Florida could very well be the arbiter of Republican ambitions.