Morning Polls: Ohio is as close as ever

A lot of good polls this morning. Here's a quick rundown:

• Ohio favors Giuliani and Edwards
  

SUSA has just come out with a new general election poll out of Ohio:

• Giuliani beats all three Democrats. He beats both Clinton and Edwards by a point (48% to 47%) but destroys Obama by 13 (52% to 39%).
• Clinton wins her two other contests: She leads Thompson by a small point (48-47), but leads more comfortably against Romney (52-42).
• Edwards, however, crushes both Thompson (53-42) and Romney (53-36), running about 10 points in front of Clinton.
• Obama wins none of his matchups, not even against Romney (though he only trails by an insignificant point). He loses by 8 against Thompson, which means he is running 20 points behind Edwards.

Just as in SUSA's polls from Alabama and Kentucky yesterday, Obama is running 20 points behind Edwards, and also fares much worse than Clinton. Correct me if I am wrong, but this did not use to be the case in the polls of the first half of the year, and I am at a loss to explain what is going on. It is true that Obama's name-ID is probably still much lower than Clinton's or Edwrads's, but that cannot account for why Obama has bad trendlines.

The second lesson of this Ohio poll is that the election is not in the bag for Democrats. Despite the sense of optimism that whoever wins the Democratic nomination will coast to the White House, the tightness of results in swing states like Ohio that are supposed to have turned much more blue since 2004 shows that 2008 will be a close election. And, just as in 2004, it could all come down to Ohio.

• Rasmussen polls New Hampshire... and the nation

Rasmussen polled the general election in New Hampshire today, and found a very tight contest. Clinton leads Giuliani by a point but is tied at 42 and 43% respectively against Romney and McCain. She leads more comfortably against Thompson (48-37%), betraying that NH voters might not be willing to vote for a strong conservative.

New Hampshire is the most Republican state of New England, but it turned dramatically blue in 2006. And it is also the only state Kerry picked up in 2004, albeit by a narrow margin. The conventional wisdom is that it will be very hard for Republicans to keep the state, but this is the second poll in two weeks that shows a very close race if the GOP nominates Romney (who is from next-door) or Giuliani, who likes to claim he would be able to put states like CT, NJ or NH in play. Could he be right?

Rasmussen also tested national general election matchups between Obama and Giuliani and Thompson. Contrary to the Ohio poll, Obama rises against both: He is found to lead Giuliani by 5%, and Thompson by 6%.

• California GOP as tight as other contests

PPIC (Public Policy Institute of California) has a new primary poll from California. Among Democrats, Clinton leads with 41% against Obama's 23% and Edwards 14%. Among Republican's, Giuliani has a very small lead with 22%, against Romney and Thompson's 16%. Giuliani used to have a much bigger lead in California polls.

Clinton's lead is hardly surprising here, as she always holds such leads in any of the large February 5th state (which is why Edwards and Obama need to beat her in Iowa or (and?) New Hampshire. The Republican numbers are much more interesting. States like California are supposed to be Giuliani's safety net: If everything goes wrong in Iowa and South Carolina because social conservatives end up rejecting Giuliani, well he has the big coastal states of 01/29 and 02/05 (FL, CA, NY, CT...) to fall back on. If this poll (and yesterday's polls from Florida) are to be believed, Giuliani has no such safety net. Romney is not supposed to be this high in California before having campaigned at all there. If he pulls off victories in Iowa and New Hampshire (where he is currently leading), how will Giuliani maintain his narrow advantage in California (or Florida!)?