Kerrey inching away from a run, but Democrats get some good news too

When is the last time Democrats received bad news in a Senate race? After John Warner and Chuck Hagel's retirement, after Jeanne Shaheen and Mark Warner announced their candidacy, the sky seemed to be the limit for Senate Democrats and many commentators were already predicting a glorious march towards a 60-seat majority. This is why the NYT's report yesterday that Bob Kerrey was now heavily leaning against a run shocked many Democrats who were expecting everything to keep breaking their way. But that now seems to have been wishful thinking:

But that, of course, would require Mr. Kerrey to leave New York City. And that has become such a sticking point that Democratic Party officials in Nebraska and Washington are grudgingly conceding that they think it is highly unlikely he will run for the Senate. The officials haven’t lost all hope – Mr. Kerrey is headed back to Nebraska for a quick weekend trip, perhaps the Midwestern air will influence his thinking – but they are all but certain he will not enter the race to fill the seat of retiring Senator Chuck Hagel.

The conventional wisdom right up to this article was that Kerrey would jump in the race, setting up a marquee battle against former Governor Johanns who announced he was running earlier in the week. Robert Novak had reported that Kerrey had decided to run long ago, and the very public statements Kerrey made about the possibility of going back to Nebraska would lead one to think he would run at the end. But if correct (and we should know very soon, probably early next week), the NYT's information means that the GOP got its strongest candidate in, but not the Democrats. They will now try to convince Omaha Mayor Fahey to jump in the race, which should certainly guarantee a competitive race but would not allow Democrats favored to pick yet another open seat.

Democrats at least got some consolation as two high-profile Democrats jumped into tight House races. In VA-11, Leslie Byrne who barely lost Virginia's 2005 race for Lieutenant Governor, has announced she will run for her old seat. Byrne held the seat until 1994, when she was beaten by Tom Davis in the Republican tsunami. Now, Davis is on the verge of retirement, and the seat has been trending more Democratic by the year. Jim Webb won the district by a full 10 points. An open VA-11 will be at the very top of Democratic pick-up opportunities, and the nominee will start off heavily favored to reclaim the district.

And in New Jersey, Democrats are determined to to mount a strong challenge against Rep. Jim Saxton in the 3rd District. The area is the kind of suburban region Democrats did well in last year, and the district itself is a swing one: Bush carried it by 3% in 2004, bur Gore had won it by 10% in 2000. Now, Democrats have a good candidate too, as State Senator Adler just jumped in the race. The DCCC also seems committed to putting this seat in place.