Results thread: States split, Obama as close as ever

1:40am (last upate): With a 2% win in Indiana and a 14% loss in North Carolina, Hillary's results very clearly do not fall in the category of "credible victory." Whether it is enough for her to stay in the race despite that is entirely up to her but there will be tremendous pressure on her to drop out and superdelegates will probably start moving towards Obama now that they have an opportunity to do so. So will Clinton deem this enough to stay in the race and go on to WV and KY after which she could at least go out with a win, or will the pressure just be overwhelming? More importantly, has Clinton already made up her mind? Tonight's email and her cancellation of tonight's media appearances imply that she might have.

1:15am: Clinton wins Indiana.
The votes were just not there in the rest of Lake County. The margin in Lake County is now 55% for Obama to 45% for Clinton, confirming that the rest of the county was pro-Clinton. The fact that the county held the non-Gary votes for surprisingly long created confusion and suspense but it was simply impossible for Obama to catch up since all the Gary votes were in (and I do think they have some explaining to do since the non-urban parts of the state reported after 7 hours when even Gary reported in less than 6; more confusing is that those rural areas were reportedly done counting by 6:30pm and the only part of the county that released its results around press time was the part that went big for Obama and gave the impression he could close the gap.) In the gubernatorial race, Lake County has allowed Thompson to pull oh so slightly ahead of Schellinger at the last minute (50.2%).

Props to the North Western Indiana Times which is doing a faster and better job than most of the media. They are now confirming that Gary, Indiana is completely in and that the remaining 44% of Lake County is entirely non-Gary. That should guarantee that Indiana is added to Clinton's column. No new hard numbers though... Also just to be clear on how close this is: Shellinger is leading by 609 votes. (Lake County is explaining that they have too many absentee ballots... though since when does a county want to count all absentees before releasing voting totals?)
And continuing the list of things that are fitting: Isn't it appropriate that Tim Russert has been among the first who is calling Obama the nominee and reporting that Clinton is canceling her morning appearances considering that he was the moderator of the October "driver's licenses debate that started Clinton's fall and that he moderated that Ohio debate back in February?

Unnoticed in that latest batch of Lake County votes was Monroe County pretty much finishing its own count (only one precinct outstanding). To win the state Obama needs to find 17,000 votes in Lake County (which isn't looking that likely anymore) but he also has 7 precincts from Marion County he can get a few hundred votes out of if it comes to that. (As I said, this is obviously all for the symbol. But until the recap post I will write tomorrow it's hard to not cover Indiana like a true nail-biter). Also, in what is an actual nail-biter, Thompson and Schellinger both have 50,0% in the gubernatorial primary with Thompson pulling even thanks to Lake. Also, Obama has just been coronated "The Nominee" by Drudge (it's the headline). What is certain is that tonight guarantees that Obama will have a majority of pledged delegates.

Is it not fitting that what is potentially the last election night of this primary season is such an agonizing nail-biter? Naturally, this is little more than symbolic at this point; we are talking about a one or two delegate change and Clinton clearly did not get what she needed. But if Clinton has any desire to stay in the race for a few more weeks to compete in the remaining 6 contests -- perhaps to withdraw after two victories in WV and KY -- she certainly needs her margin (now 17,000 votes) to hold in Lake County. After all, even the media is now calling Obama the Democratic nominee; Russert reports that Clinton has canceled her appearances on morning TV shows.

Also, the Clinton campaign just declared victory in Indiana in an email they sent out: "Every time we've celebrated a victory, we've celebrated it together. And tonight is no exception. This victory is your victory, this campaign is your campaign, and your support has been the difference between winning and losing. Thank you so much for making this campaign possible. Let's keep making history together." The e-mail is very short and while it contains the customary "contribute" button at the bottom there is no future-oriented statement at all in the entire email, even no plea for money...

12:22am: More updates from Lake County!
The two candidates have roughly split the votes of the new 150 counties that have reported. Obama is now up 21,000 votes in the county; he was up 18,000 after the first 158. The Northwestern Indiana paper says this includes almost all of Gary -- which would mean that Clinton is likely to hold her to her 2% margin in Indiana.

By this time on Super Tuesday we knew almost every result -- even California! And tonight started at 6pm... Hopefully the general election will not come down to Lake County, Indiana (not that it will). Still nothing new from Lake County... The Northwest Paper of Indiana reports that there is a history of slow counting in Lake County and reminds us that the Clintons made stops here because there are a lot of white ethnics in the non-Gary part of the county. In other words, the margin is very unlikely to stay at 75-25. The question then is why the county did not report totals from towns that reported their totals at 6:30pm (if the Hamond mayor is telling the truth), as those numbers being in might have allowed Indiana to be called much earlier.

Lake County is showing no intention of releasing the 72% of precincts remaining there (it has been 5 hours the polls have closed in the county). The Mayor of Hamond, Lake County is saying that his town voted for Clinton and so did all the non-Gary towns of the county. He added that he reported his results to the county at 6:30pm and that he was not sure why the results were not reporting and why only the Gary results were in right now (see next paragraph). If confirmed, the Clinton campaign's anger of most of the past 2 hours that Lake County's not reporting is preventing them from declaring victory and getting that news in tomorrow's paper could be justified. Whatever happens with the remaining votes in Indiana, tomorrow morning's narrative is going to be one uncalled race and one Obama blowout.

The question is what remains to be counted in the county. The city of Gary, or the rest of the county? Also, Marc Ambinder says that the 28% of precincts reporting were mostly from Gary so that half of the city remains to report and the rest of the county. Clinton should do better in the non-Gary part of Lake than in the city itself, especially if the Hamond Mayor is correct.

Lake County is finally getting its act together and has started reporting! And Obama is getting a huge margin out of the county. With 28% of Lake County reporting, Obama has 75% of the vote and has closed Indiana to a 2% race and a 20,000 vote margin. If the rest of Lake votes the same way, the state (and the night) belong to Obama. Note that Gary is only one part of Lake County so not all the county is likely to have uniform results. Will we have to wait as long for the next batch of Lake County results?? (Even Kos is casting doubt on Gary's results now: "The question is whether this was legit. The way the vote is being released makes this stink to high hell.")
Lake County could have an even bigger impact on the gubernatorial primary. Thompson was trailing against Schellinger 50.4% to 49.6% before Lake county started reporting... now, the margin is down to 0.4% and Thompson is winning Lake County!

Hillary Clinton did not drop out in her speech and justified that by using Obama's statement last week that Indiana would be the tie-breaker. I did not get to watch the speech as I am not in front of the television tonight, but Ben Smith reports that Clinton sounded very "muted," drained of energy and visibly down. Not to mention that the Clinton campaign is angry that Gary is withholding the final results. Even if Clinton wins Indiana now, it will be post-primetime, post-her speech and, perhaps, post tomorrow's paper settle on their articles and storylines. What is up with Gary, Indiana???

MSNBC reports that Lake County (67% of the remaining precincts) will not start reporting before 11pm... Monroe and Marion County have about 60 precincts combined, and some counties have outstanding precincts here and there. It appears that most of the remaining counties should help Obama; it is unlikely -- though not impossible -- that they could carry him towards a victory. In North Carolina, a 14% margin is holding.

I have no idea why Lake County has not reported at all yet but until it does it will be hard to know the final margin in that state. Obama is trailing by 35,000 votes statewide and since half of the remaining precincts are in Lake County he will need a huge victory there. He is likely to get it in the city of Gary which is heavily black but not necessarily in the rest of the county. In North Carolina, Charlotte is now reporting on par with the rest of the state; the numbers will probably stay stable for the rest of the night.

Also, contrary to what the Huffington Post is suggesting, tonight's exit polls do not suggest that the Limbaugh effect is having a big impact. Yes, as the Huff Post notes, most of those who say neither candidate shares their value are voting Clinton and it is also true that more Clinton voters would not vote Obama in the general than the other way around; but the fact that most blue-collar white Democrats (who have always been the first group to desert Democrats in the general) are Clinton's base makes that perfectly predictable; also, most polls in the past month confirms that Democratic Clinton supporters are more likely to cross-over than Obama's. Consider that 35% of Clinton supporters in Indiana said they will vote McCain in the general. But only about 5% of Clinton's support comes from Republicans (10% of voters tonight were Republicans and they voted for the two candidates roughly equally). Clearly those 35% were not Republican and not Limbaugh listeners. (Marc Ambinder agrees that the Limbaugh effect is "marginal.")

The margin keeps narrowing in Indiana -- 3% with 79% reporting. But that is almost entirely driven by Indianapolis getting close to done (94%). There is no reporting at all in Lake County (Gary), which is expected to be big for Obama. Lake County represents a third of the remaining precincts, so the margin could narrow some more... perhaps leading to an Obama victory? The symbol of an Indiana victory would be huge, off course, and make it hard for Clinton to justify staying in the race. Even if Clinton holds on, the difference in size between the two victories would already make it hard for her to resist pressure; this has not been a good night for the new New York Senator.

9:45pm: Results are coming in slower now. Kay Hagan will be the Democratic nominee in North Carolina's Senate race, Beverly Perdue in the governor's race. In the GOP's gubernatorial primary, Charlotte Mayor McCrory looks good in the GOP one: He is ahead by 9% only but "his" city is reporting significantly slower than the rest of the state.
The Clinton campaign is having trouble spinning the North Carolina results giving how much energy they put to convince they had a shot in keeping North Carolina close (there was even suggestion last week that the state was winnable). The exact margin is still unclear (it's now down to 14%) but with Charlotte still to report Obama looks assured of at least a double-digit victory.

Giving his first victory speech in two months in Raleigh, NC, Obama concedes Indiana and calls Democrats to unify: "This primary season may not be over, but when it is, we will have to remember who we are as Democrats – that we are the party of Jefferson and Jackson; of Roosevelt and Kennedy... This fall, we intend to march forward as one Democratic Party, united by a common vision for this country."
Results-wise, the race keeps tightening in Indiana but Indianapolis is now 84% reporting (a 45,000 vote lead for Obama in Allen County alone). Clinton's overall lead is down to 5% with 71% reporting -- though that's a stable 50,000 vote lead. In North Carolina, the margin is down from the 28% it was at earlier to 18% with 39% reporting. Keep in mind that the numbers we saw at the beginning were early voters, of which a far larger percentage were African-Americans (40%, versus 33% overall).

We are up to 68% reporting in Indiana, including 73% in Indianapolis which is now reporting above state average. Clinton's statewide lead is down to 6% (50,000 votes) and Obama is up 40,000 in Allen County. But Lake County (Gary) has not started reporting and Monroe County is only at 10% (though it doesn't look that there are a significant number of votes there). CBS is still the only network to have called Indiana.

Down-the-ballot races are being decided as well. Kay Hagan and Beverly Perdue are headed to big victories. The IN gubernatorial primary is too close to call. In IN-07, Carson (who won the special election a few months ago) is holding on by 15% against a challenger.

: Indianapolis is now 54% reporting, and Monroe County (college-heavy) is starting to trickle in -- more than the state total (52%) which is helping Obama catch up and close to 8%. In North Carolina, 14% are reporting but that includes almost all the votes in the Triangle (Chapel Hill, Raleigh, Durham) are reporting -- and going huge for Obama (there was some talk of Clinton closing the gap somewhat in the Triangle).

8:20pm: CBS calls Indiana for Clinton. Other networks don't go there yet. With 47% reporting (and 37% in Indianapolis), Clinton's lead is down to 10%. Still nothing from the Northwest or from Monroe County.

Allen County (Indianapolis) is now 33% reporting and Obama is leading by 22% (9,000 votes). Clinton is now leading by 13% with 39% reporting. The bad news for Clinton is that many of the remaining votes are from Obama counties: college student-heavy Monroe County is only at 1% and the Northwest is still completely out. And, of course, Allen County will bring in many more votes.

A note on the NC results: A 14% victory for Obama would by no means a surprise. He was leading by double-digit in a number of polls this week and routinely beat Clinton by more than 14% until last week. Thus, we can't even say that Obama exceeded expectations. But there is no question that Clinton needed to perform much better than a double-digit loss here. It looks like NC will be the mirror image of PA to the end -- a victory that has nothing shocking will be portrayed like a significant triumph.

7:50pm: Updated exit polls in North Carolina have Obama expanding his lead a bit to 14-15%. This is going to hurt Clinton quite a bit. She is now projected to carry 60% of the white vote and 6% of the black vote. She was hoping for a bit more among both groups, but her failure to even hold to her usual level among African-Americans is what is driving her so far down here. If those numbers hold, it will also allow Obama to increase his pledged delegate total meaningfully.

Clinton supporters will at least be happy that she is holding on to her 57% to 43% lead (50,000 votes) in Indiana with a third of the precincts reporting... including 20% of Indianapolis, where Obama is up by 20%. It does look like the reporting precincts in Indianapolis are the smaller ones, however, since there is only 20,000 votes from Allen county while at least 150,000 voters were expected (correct me if I am wrong here).

7:40pm: Given how bad North Carolina looks like it could be for Clinton, she really needs to outperform exit polls in Indiana. With 26% of the vote reporting, she is still up 57% to 43% -- a 38,000 vote lead. Indianapolis is starting to come in more rapidly, with 11% reporting there Obama is up by 20%. Fort Wayne has almost finished counting, with Clinton closing the gap a bit to 8%. Monroe County (Univ. of Indiana) has only reported 1% of the vote. Obama has a big source of votes there as well.

7:30pm: Polls close in North Carolina, Obama declared the winner. The improbable scenario of a double victory for Clinton is squashed. More problematic for her is the fact that networks calling the race this quickly means that the margin is likely to be big, potentially striking a terrible blow to Clinton. The exit polls right now give Obama a 13% lead, certainly significant. Since I have repeated that the racial breakdown is important, let's look at it: 33% of voters are African-American, what Clinton needed to make this a race. But she appears to have fallen to 6% among black voters while getting 'only' 59% of white voters.

7:25pm: With 17% reporting, it's still Clinton 57% to 43% (27,000 votes). That includes 68% of Allen County (Obama is leading by 10%). Indianapolis has started reporting, so numbers could start moving soon. With 3% reporting, he is leading by 10%. Appropriately, Hillary is winning Clinton County (with 61% of the vote).

7:15pm: 10% are now reporting and Clinton is ahead 58% to 42% (20,000 votes). Nothing yet from the Northwest and from Indianapolis, so this will all obviously change. Numbers are coming in from Fort Wayne, Indiana (Allen County) and Obama is performing above expectations. With 32% reporting, he is ahead by 12% (3,000 votes). That bodes well for his overall numbers.

7pm: All polls have now closed in Indiana, so we have access to CNN's exit polling data. It looks like the numbers are the more reliable third wave of polling. This exit poll is projecting a tight race with Clinton slightly leading (about 5%). It could be a long night... Noteworthy findings: Only 55% of voters are women, expect a very good night for Obama in Indianapolis, and the polarization along partisan lines is not as dramatic as anticipated. As for the black vote, Obama seems to have had some room to grow... he is projected to be at 93%. I will wait a bit more for more exact breakdown among different constituencies; for now, all the usual voting behaviors are holding, with Clinton holding on to blue-collar voters. (Note: As far as understood, exit polls do have mechanisms to take early voting into account).

6:45pm: As I predicted, results have started trickling in before all polls closed. With 3% reporting, Clinton has a 61% to 39% lead in Indiana. As in most states, there will be some huge geographical polarization tonight, and the counties that are reporting right now are from rural areas likely to go big for Clinton.

6:10pm: Polls have closed in most of Indiana now but the full exit polls are not being released because small pockets of the state, on Central time, are closing in an hour. Results could start trickling in soon though. CNN reports that exit polls in North Carolina have the black vote at 91-6. If confirmed (which is far from certain), this would mean Clinton has fallen lower than her usual percentage and would make it tough for her to keep the race in single-digits.

There are very troubling signs for Democrats in the general, however. Ambinder notesthat 60 to 66% of a candidate's supporters would be dissatisfied if the other wins the election. Also, the g-e breakdown among Clinton voters does not bode well for party unity: In North Carolina, 45% of them would vote Obama and 38% McCain (!); in Indiana, it's 48-33.

Original post: Both Indiana and North Carolina have more delegates than any other state that still has to vote -- 115 for NC and 72 for IN. Polls close at 7:30pm ET in North Carolina; Indiana polls close early (as you might remember from previous election nights), 6pm local time. That means that polls will close at 6pm ET in most of the state but not until 6 pm CT (7pm ET) in some areas. It is for now unclear whether numbers will start being reported before all polls are closed (they often are).

We should start having a good idea of where things are heading when early exit polls give us a precise idea of the partisan and racial breakdown of tonight's electorate. For now, the AP is reporting preliminary exits with vague indications: (1) "About a third" of the NC electorate is African-American. Anything higher than 32% would make things tough for Clinton. (2) Respectively "about one in five" and "one in ten" of Indiana voters are independents and Republicans. If confirmed, this would be good news for Clinton. Some polls over the past week had suggested that the proportion of registered Democrats could be as low as 60%. (3) 48% of voters in both states are apparently telling exit pollsters that Wright was "very" or "somewhat" important in their choice...

As for exit polls of the horse race, they are suggesting an easy Obama win in North Carolina for now and a smaller Clinton lead in Indiana. But keep in mind that almost all exit polls from almost every state have been very skewed towards Obama. The second wave of exits from both Pennsylvania and Ohio showed Obama narrowly ahead, so swings by at least 10% are definitely possible.

For now, you can read my guidelines to tonight's results; and, as always, stories from election day. Ben Smith posts on stories of people being turned away because of Indiana's strict ID law that was just upheld by the Supreme Court.

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  • Well Taniel if these exit polls that you site are correct, then the CW that Obama will will NC and Clinton will win IN will come to pass. The margin of victory however is uncertain at this point: Will Clinton and Obama win their pepsective states by a similar margin or will one be smaller/larger than the other?

    By Anonymous jaxx raxor, At 06 May, 2008 17:52  

  • I cannot believe that once the difference between the Dems with Obama as the nominee and McCain are shown during the summer that most of Clinton's supporters would come back home. Both Obama and Clinton have similar policies on the big issues.

    I cannot believe some (not all) Clinton supporters would be so fickle and vote McCain and get policies they do not like just to spite the Dems.

    By Anonymous Tom, At 06 May, 2008 18:34  

  • Are exit polls that reliable if 25% of the vote was early? Exit polls taken today would not cover all voters so could be biased.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 06 May, 2008 18:35  

  • Exit polls can be useful in terms of showing a VERY general trend but you absolutly do not want to rely on them heavily. And it seems that in NC it looks like it will be very unlikely that Clinton could pull an upset victory thanks to Obama's black support. Of course its possible I could be wrong but still the general trend is there.

    By Anonymous jaxx raxor, At 06 May, 2008 18:41  

  • My predictions are here at my blog.


    Obama 56.1%
    Clinton: 43.4%
    Other: 0.5%

    Margin: Obama +12.2%



    Clinton: 54.6%
    Obama: 44.9%
    Other: 0.5%

    Margin: Clinton +9.7%

    Guess we will all know in the next day how close we were...

    AH, democracy in action!!!

    By Blogger Mark, At 06 May, 2008 18:52  

  • I agree exit polls are not that reliable but the media use them for the whole black/white and working class narratives they are pushing.

    Also Clinton is only doing 60-40 in the rural areas. In PA she was regularly getting 75-25 in the rural counties. Looks like it could be closer than PA.

    By Anonymous Tom, At 06 May, 2008 18:52  

  • Mark - both of those margins would be higher than expected. And in my opinion a wash- as I said in another post on here Obama to get a reasonable night needs to get a bigger margin in NC than Clinton does in IN and preferably by 3+%. So your figures fit that.

    By Anonymous Tom, At 06 May, 2008 18:53  

  • Looking at the official CNN exit polls and the % for each candidate by gender it would imply a 52-48 victory for Clinton. Of course error involved by looks like single digits and possibly low single digits (6 or less).

    I would like to know how accurate the CNN exit polls have been in the past.

    By Anonymous Tom, At 06 May, 2008 19:10  

  • Mark,

    Both of your predictions are similar to mine. I have Obama winning NC (my home state) by 10.5% and Hillary winning IN by 10%.


    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 06 May, 2008 19:41  

  • Mark and JW - looks like you are both being pessimistic about Obama chances. The expectations game which has usually worked to Clinton's advantage is biting her in the ass tonight. A double digit victory for Obama would no be perceived as good.
    Looks like Obama by 12% or so in NC and Clinton by 5-6% in IN - a reasonably good night for Obama.

    By Anonymous Tom, At 06 May, 2008 19:51  

  • Obama's victory in NC is extremely important, the fact that it was called early means that he likely destroyed her in the state (at least by 10 points, but probably higher), so even if Clinton wins Indiana by double digits today (which is somewhat likely) it will still be just a draw, which is a win for Obama because of his PD lead. I think that Clinton's best chance of winning the nomination has now passed (unless Obama victory margin in NC shrinks considerably) but she's likely to contiune to the end of june unless she loses IN.

    I will say this in advance: Clinton supportes you are free to disagree with me but please be at least somewhat polite in your comments.

    By Anonymous jaxx raxor, At 06 May, 2008 20:06  

  • Taniel - the polls in NC had tightened considerably with the real politics average being 7-8% for Obama so 12-14% would be a big improvement for him. Also the Clinton campaign with Bill and Hillary have put a lot of effort into NC.

    In PA the demographics were set for her and she won by 9% and this was incorrectly portrayed as a huge victory. The demographics favor Obama in NC so a 14% win would be par of the course but would be a bigger victory than Clinton got in PA. Also he would wipe out her net lead coming out of PA in PV and PD's.

    By Anonymous Mike, At 06 May, 2008 20:10  

  • I don't know about the popular vote, as PA has much more people than NC (of course I don't know the exact number of people who voted in either primary yet) but Obama definitely going to wipe out the net PD gain she got from PA.

    I think Clinton will be able to pull of a victory IN but only by low single digits. If most of the remaining counting votes come from Obama territory then he will definitly close the margin but the weaker proportion of black voters will probably keep him from going all the way.

    By Anonymous jaxx raxor, At 06 May, 2008 20:29  

  • Yes PA has more voters but NC is 3/4 of the size so 9% in PA needs 13-14% in NC.

    Also Clinton is doing badly in NC, Taniel said she hoped to close in the Triangle region which has lots of whites (Wake county) but she is being blown away by 20%+. Obviously the Wright issue had no big negative effect.
    She is also doing no where nearly good enough in the eastern, rural part of the state. Bill Clinton visited the area a lot and Obama is winning those areas.

    By Anonymous Mike, At 06 May, 2008 20:43  

  • mike 20:10 so right.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 06 May, 2008 20:55  

  • If the margins hold similar to what they are now - Obama will have out performed the polls massively (realclear politics average was 8% and most had him in high single digits) so 20% is way out performing. And if Clinton does as the polls expect and win IN by 6-7% then this will be a big night for Obama.
    Clinton has had 2 months of good press and especially since her average win in PA she had had good press and Obama terrible press. So him doing well in both states would be a good result for him.

    I expect many more superdelegates to come on board int he next 2-4 days.

    By Anonymous Mike, At 06 May, 2008 21:00  

  • Obama didn't put it away tonight, but his big win in North Carolina (reported early while Indiana wasn't called) should help him in the spin wars tomorrow.

    A split decision is a Clinton loss. The pledged delegate race is all but over and the supers have been drifting increasingly to Obama.

    By Blogger Political Realm, At 06 May, 2008 21:41  

  • The big story is that Obama won eastern North Carolina. It doesn`t have lots of students or African Americans. Just large numbers of white, working class people and he WON. He was expected to do well in Charlotte, Raleigh and Durham which have lots of students and AA's, but eastern NC would be expected to be Clinton country - Bill Clinton visited there a lot.

    So hopefully no more spin that Obama relies only on the young and AA's. He won at least 40 % of the white vote in both states and if it wasn`t for older, white women then Clinton would have been buried long ago.

    By Anonymous Tom, At 06 May, 2008 21:56  

  • The big story is that Obama won eastern North Carolina. It doesn`t have lots of students or African Americans. Just large numbers of white, working class people and he WON. He was expected to do well in Charlotte, Raleigh and Durham which have lots of students and AA's, but eastern NC would be expected to be Clinton country - Bill Clinton visited there a lot.

    So hopefully no more spin that Obama relies only on the young and AA's. He won at least 40 % of the white vote in both states and if it wasn`t for older, white women then Clinton would have been buried long ago.

    By Anonymous Tom, At 06 May, 2008 21:56  

  • Black turnout in NC was average c.31-33% and he got 42% of the white vote. Lets put to rest the notion that he relies on just one voting bloc. If that was the case you would not have won all the states he has by the margins he has.

    By Anonymous Mike, At 06 May, 2008 22:02  

  • An indication the Wright issue had minimal impact is that in NC late deciders broke 50-50 for the two candidates. Usually Clinton has done much better with late deciders. These are people who have heard all the news reports.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 06 May, 2008 22:06  

  • Looks like Zogby was the best pollster in both states. Some people on this site dissed Zogby - I expect to hear apologies!!

    By Anonymous Tom, At 06 May, 2008 22:10  

  • I think the relevant proverb here is "A broken clock is right twice a day." Zogby is consistently favorable to Obama--this time, that happened to reflect reality. Their average error this cycle is still nothing to brag about.

    Indiana looks like New Hampshire did--polls captured a bit of late movement, but underestimated the momentum swing in Obama's favor.

    By Anonymous angel eyes, At 06 May, 2008 23:13  

  • I saw on CNN that Lake County was not reporting results until it had processed the 11,000-odd "absentee" ballots. (I assume that includes early votes.)

    Also, and this is both anecdotal and biased, as I was GOTV-ing in Gary today, but it seems turnout was massive, nearly 50%. Might explain the delay. Another Missouri on our hands?

    By Anonymous Chicago Joe, At 06 May, 2008 23:54  

  • I find the supposed outrage over late results from Lake County to be overblown. What really matters is the delegate count, not who "wins" a state; the rest is just spin.

    The difference between a tie in Indiana and a 52-48 win is maybe a four delegate swing. It's the math that counts, even if many people don't realize it--and even if the campaigns pretend otherwise.

    By Blogger dsimon, At 07 May, 2008 00:24  

  • Well with the current results now, I think that Clinton is likely to move on. She was able to make a split decision, which is very important symbolically, and she is undoubtly trying to get MI and FL counted. If they are counted in full, then Clinton will definitly narrow the PD gap but will not close it. However, tonight was likely the last great chance for Clinton to put foward a game change, she lost NC by double digits and only won ID barely. I suspect that she canceled her morning show appearences not because she going to give up but so they can methodically plan for the next primaries. Its clear that she may not have the money to challange Obama in his favored states (Oregan, South Dakata, Montana). The next week will be a favored state in WV and then a even better one in KY. She is going to use (as well as PR) to try to make the argument that she is stronger in the general election. The race will go on to the very last primaries on June 3rd. However, I think that once the primaries are over, barring an extreme meltdown by Obama, they will massively go for him and end the nomination in numbers that would ensure Obama is the nominee even counting FL and MI.

    By Anonymous jaxx raxor, At 07 May, 2008 01:49  

  • I missed Obama's percentage in NC by exactly 0.009%, btw...


    I just did some blitzmath:

    Take Clinton's PV margin (214,115) from PA on 4/22 and subtract it from Obama's current PV margin (236,270) from NC and then add her current margin (22,592) from IN and subtract his margin (7) from Guam: and this means that since Mississippi, Clinton has changed the PV margin by exactly 430 votes!!!

    236,270 (NC)
    +7 Guam)
    236,277 - Obama

    236,707 - Clinton

    Difference: Clinton +430. That's it. 430 votes.

    As of 05/07, 01:52 EST

    By Blogger Mark, At 07 May, 2008 02:09  

  • Jaxx - a split decision barely. A 1-2% win in IN for either candidate was really a tie. I mean 25,000 votes in a state with millions of voters is hardly anything for Clinton to brag about. She had favorable demographics and Obama had terrible press for weeks.
    NC exceeded recent expectations - a good double digit victory which totally erased the PA and IN losses is good news for him.
    Also he did well with thew white vote in both states and surprisingly did well in eastern NC which is white working class.

    By Anonymous Mike, At 07 May, 2008 05:38  

  • Keep patting yourselves on the back, Obama still didn't carry enough white votes to translate into a GE victory. When Nov. comes around it'll be McCain that gets trusted to live in the WH. By then he will have just co-opt all the relevant points of Obama's platform to the point that most whites won't trust Barack to do anything for them. Tonight on CNN Donna Brazile displayed a "Rev. Wright moment" that just undercut more white support for a black guy. Barack needs to get out from under this bad attitude problem of these entitlement blacks that are blocking whites from getting behind him. Until that happens the fear of a "Rev. Wright" WH is going to overcome any policy issues with McCain. They'll vote for the lesser of two evils and that will be McCain. McSame for four years is better than a "black only" government. We all know what happened in SA. You can expect the republicans to to use that as an example of what blacks do in power.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 07 May, 2008 07:28  

  • Anon - you talk crap as usual. Black only government with Obama - stop smoking the crack. Is that why Daschle, Richardson, McCasskil and other non-black elected officals have supported Obama?

    Obama outperformed expectations, he eliminated the net popular vote and pledged delegates Clinton got out of PA and IN. IN was set up demographically for her, Obama had had two plus weeks of terrible press and still he did very well.

    In the past two weeks Obama has gained 24 SD's to Clinton's 12 - remember that was when she had "monmentum" and he had bad press. Now I expect many more SD's to come forward and for Obama. GAME OVER for CLINTON.

    Working class white voters have one vote just like every other group. So when a candidate wins they have the most people supporting them. Obama has therefore shown that nearly as many people in white Indiana support him as support Clinton.

    By Anonymous Tom, At 07 May, 2008 08:30  

  • Talk about crap Tom. Obama promised to win Pa. He promised to win Ind. too. He promises and promises but can't deliver. His blackness isn't going to be dispelled by how many white people like Daschle and McCaskell support him. He has to project himself as a leader of everyone. He's trying by the way his speech went last night. If he can't pull it off, he's over. The Committee has the power to pull the plug on him no matter what you fanatics say or do. Saying that this game is over is the biggest load of crap ever. It's over in November. Right now the least electable Democrat is leading the nomination race. Either he becomes more electable or he loses. I'd rather see the strongest Democrat nominated so I don't have to see the weak one give the WH to McSame.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 07 May, 2008 10:36  

  • Anon - Obama never said he would win PA. He at least competes strongly in every state of the union. Clinton gave up on WI, MD, VA and several mountain states back in February. She is running out of money and has made strategic campaign errors including the whole gas tax issue.

    I now see that you shift from Obama never getting the nomination to he won`t win in November. You seem to accept your candidate will not be the Democratic nominee. So all you can do is wait until November getting bitter at the thought of Obama becoming President Obama. Of course if he wins, you will complain about something else.
    So far he has out performed Clinton in every measure - money, votes, delegates, states won and she had the machine to start with!!

    By Anonymous Tom, At 07 May, 2008 11:33  

  • Obama promised to win Pa. He promised to win Ind. too.

    I'd like to see cites for those claims.

    It's over in November. Right now the least electable Democrat is leading the nomination race.

    If that's so, why do national polls have Clinton and Obama doing about the same against McCain? Some have Clinton doing better, some have Obama, and they're usually within each other's margin of error. And some have Obama ahead of McCain, I'm unclear how the conclusion that "it's over" was reached.

    By Blogger dsimon, At 07 May, 2008 12:26  

  • "The Committee has the power to pull the plug on him no matter what you fanatics say or do."

    So much for democracy in action.

    By Blogger Daniel Greenfield, At 07 May, 2008 14:22  

  • "let's see, the race is over,period, END OF STORY," (unless HRC wins a string of primaries by 80 to 20%). The above was posted here on March 22nd 2008 by a genius. You all could have saved a lot of writing if you'd have just listened to that genius.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 07 May, 2008 14:34  

  • You're probably right about that one, anonymous. And I'm very prescient as well. After all, I did vote for McGovern. And McGovern would've made quite a good pres.

    By Blogger Daniel Greenfield, At 07 May, 2008 18:09  

  • The math gets extremely easy at this point.

    PD margin: Obama +166
    Number of PDs left to reap: 217

    What does this mean for Clinton?

    It means that she must earn a MARGIN of 167 in the PDs to surpass. 167 / 217 = 76.96% MARGIN. In order to get a 76.96% margin, which means 88.48% to 11.52%. This means, thinking proportionally, that Clinton must now win the remaining six contests with 88.48% of the vote in order to get 192 of the 217 PDs.

    Mathematically possible.
    Statistically practically impossible.
    After 5/20, it will be physically impossible.

    According to RCP, Obama is now 177 delegates from the nomination.I will put out a write up on the last 6 here at my blog, just as I did for the last 12 and the last 10, over the weekend, including my projection of what the PD count will look like after June 3rd.

    By Blogger Mark, At 08 May, 2008 02:53  

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