3.01.2008

Assessing Clinton's chances, with delegate calculations and the latest polls

Zogby is back to releasing tracking polls -- something they had not done since the run-up to Super Tuesday. And they bring mixed news for Hillary Clinton who now leads in neither Ohio nor Texas:

  • In Ohio, Clinton and Obama are now tied at 45%. Among the GOP, despite an 8% in Huckabee's favor, McCain is still ahead by... 33%!

  • In Texas, Clinton has cut Obama's lead by 4% and now "only" trails by 2%, 45% to 43%. Zogby adds that Clinton led Obama by double-digits in the Friday numbers alone, and we will know in the coming days if that is an outlier or the beginning of a trend.

  • The BELO tracking poll out this morning confirms that there might be the slightest of trends in Clinton' s favor who takes back the lead, albeit by a small 46% to 45%.

  • Finally, we got a rare poll from Rhode Island showing Clinton up 49% to 40%, thanks to a massive 32% lead among women -- for a 50% gender gap!
I have been reminding you for a few days now that the important metric has never been whether Clinton can win Ohio and Texas but whether she can win them big and get the kind of delegate lead she need to cut into Obama's advantage. When the question becomes whether she is going to win Ohio and Texas at all, it becomes hard to imagine how she will storm back to significant victories.

To illustrate this point and how crucial big wins are for Clinton, let's turn to some delegate calculations. Forbes has a very useful delegate calculator online that allows you to project the delegate attributions of the upcoming states by predicting the percentages of both candidates. Marc Ambinder conducted the same exercise yesterday and discovered just how dire Clinton's situation is, definitely take a look at his calculations as well, but here is my take on this:

The Campaign Diaries pledged delegate count right now stands at 1195.5 versus 1048, approximately a 150 delegate gap. Now, let's leave out all the upcoming states that Obama is very strongly favored to win: Vermont, Wyoming, South Dakota, Oregon, Montana and Mississippi. I am not even including North Carolina, Kentucky (which holds caucuses) and Indiana (where a recent poll had Obama way ahead) for the sake of making an argument (I grant that there is an argument to be made for Oregon staying competitive, since Obama only won the Washington primaries by 3%).

That leaves us with Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Puerto Rico, North Carolina, Indiana and Kentucky. It would take Clinton winning every single one of these contests with 58% to get a 150 pledged delegate lead out of them and barely catch up with Obama. If we take don't count North Carolina and Kentucky, that percentage rises to 62%.

And then we would still have to throw in Obama's victories in places like Mississippi and Vermont in the calculation and the fact that Texas also holds caucuses. Clinton's one hope is Puerto Rico, where there is a possibility of delegates being attributed winner take all which would give her a huge 55 delegate lead out of that contest, which could definitely help her make up some of the difference.

Now if Clinton managed to gather enough momentum to start winning these states with 55%, she would not close the delegate gap entirely but she would get very close and she would suddenly have momentum and all the buzz, which could push some superdelegates in her corner. Also, if Clinton managed to get fairly close she would then make a renewed argument for sitting Florida and Michigan. And while she would not necessarily succeed (after all, if she doesn't have the votes to become the nominee it is unlikely she can control the committee that will decide on sitting FL and MI), it could provide cover to superdelegates who want to vote for Hillary.

But these numbers point to how difficult it will be for her to either get a pledged delegate back or even get that close to Obama, whose February sweep really did wonders.

Labels: , ,

6 Comments:

  • Great analysis. I would go out on a limb and say that it's better than Mark Penn's newest memo which claims that it is Obama who must score "decisive victories" in both Texas and Ohio to prove himself worthy

    By Blogger Jason, At 01 March, 2008 14:17  

  • are your numbers including Michigan and Florida?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 01 March, 2008 15:55  

  • Why would the numbers include Michigan & Florida? The toatl number of delegates is 4049, meaning that 2025 are needed for the nomination. If you add MI & FL, those numbers go up - I've never heard anything except 2025 needed since we kicked off Iowa, and I suspect we won't (and shouldn't).

    As for Jason's first comment on this post, I agree that there is no way this gets turned around to be that Obama must sweep all four to maintain momentum, given where he was only 2 weeks ago (down in 3 of 4). If he takes VT & Texas, and gets Ohio oh-so-close and Rhode Island is single digits, that's amazing progress in 2 weeks and definitely makes it harder for Clinton to go on. Clinton in my mind needs to win Rhode Island by double digits, win Ohio and not by a photo finish, and hold off Barack in Texas. She gets a pass on Vermont (similar to Barack with Rhode Island).

    By Blogger KELL, At 01 March, 2008 16:39  

  • Obama’s efforts to connect to the Republican Party, specifically Bush, and Dick Chaney, of the Halliburton Company, dates back to the Presidents Grandfather, Prescott Bush, and indeed Chaney was once an executive officer of Halliburton.

    The American military pounds Iraq with Artillary, bombs, and the like, destroying large sections of cities, and infra-structures, then Halliburton comes in to rebuild. Halliburton and Halliburton associated companies have raked in ten’s of billions.

    Obama is just like the BIG HALIBURTAN. Haliburton has contracted to build detention centers in the U.S. similiar to the one in Quantanammo Bay, Cuba. Halliburton does nothing to earn the Two Dollars for each meal an American Serviceman in Iraq eats.

    http://www.halliburtonwatch.org/

    Halliburton was scheduled to take control of the Dubai Ports in The United Arab Emiirate. The deal was canceled when Bush was unable to affect the transfer of the American Ports.

    Now we see what some might suspect as similiar financial escapading from the Democrats.

    Two years ago, Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity gave a $50 million contract to a start-up security company - Companion- owned by now-indicted businessman (TONY REZKO) Tony Rezko and a onetime Chicago cop, Daniel T. Frawley, to train Iraqi power-plant guards in the United States. An Iraqi leadership change left the deal in limbo. Now the company, Companion Security, is working to revive its contract.
    Involved along with Antoin “Tony” Rezco, long time friend and neighbor of Democratic Presidential hopeful Barack Obama, and former cop Daniel T. Frawley, is Aiham Alsammarae. Alsammarae was accused of financial corruption by Iraqi authorities and jailed in Iraq last year before escaping and returning here.

    LIKE FATHER LIKE SON.

    Recently, Obama's campaign staff have been vetted by the IRS to disclose his connection to the criminal money generating underworld. Besides, his connections to the REZCO MAFIA types, his up-coming tax fraud charges — Obama needs to disclose why he is a MUSLIM "PATWANG-FWEEE" and disclose Obama's MUSLIM Farrakhan mob connection to Chicago's Trinity United Church of Christ. Its minister, and Obama's spiritual adviser, is the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. In 1982, the church launched Trumpet Newsmagazine; Wright's daughters serve as publisher and executive editor. Every year, the magazine makes awards in various categories. Last year, it gave the Dr. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. Trumpeter Award to a man it said "truly epitomized greatness." That man is Louis Farrakhan. Farrakhan and Chicago's Trinity United Church are trumpeting Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama as the second coming of the messiah. Obama should stop suppoting our intervention in IRAQ. It’s time to introduce this false, fake Xerox - X box Obama and invite the self-indicting thief plagiarizing pipsqueke "GLORK" Xerox - X box to meet the Buffalo "GAZOWNT-GAZIKKA" Police Department Buffalo Creek. He is MAD!!! --

    OBAM YOU'RE NO JFK.


    "GLORK" Obama looks like Alfred E. Newman: "Tales Calculated To Drive You." He is a MUSLIM "Glork" He's MAD!!! Alfred E. Neuman is the fictional mascot of Mad. The face had drifted through American pictography for decades before being claimed by Mad editor Harvey Kurtzman after he spotted it on the bulletin board in the office of Ballantine Books editor Bernard Shir-Cliff, later a contributor to various magazines created by Kurtzman.
    Obama needs to disclose why he is a MUSLIM "PATWANG-FWEEE" and stop suppoting our intervention in IRAQ. It’s time to introduce this false, fake "GLORK" Xerox - X box Obama and invite the self-indicting thief plagiarizing pipsqueke Xerox - X box to meet the Buffalo "GAZOWNT-GAZIKKA" Police Department Buffalo Creek.

    Michelle Obama should be ashamed.

    "GLORK" Michelle Obama should be ashamed of her separatist-racist connection to Farrakhan and Chicago's Trinity United Church trumpeting Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama as the second coming of the messiah. If Michelle Obama new what her husband -- the Hope-A-Dope, Fonster Monster -- Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama did in Harlem, she would wash her wide-open, Hus-suey loving MUSILM mouth out, with twenty-four (24) mule-team double-cross X-boX-BorraX. He is a MUSLIM "Glork" It’s time to introduce this false, fake "GLORK" Xerox - X box Obama and invite the self-indicting thief plagiarizing pipsqueke Xerox - X box to meet the Buffalo "GAZOWNT-GAZIKKA" Police Department Buffalo Creek. He's MAD!!!

    http://www.halliburtonwatch.org/

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 06 March, 2008 20:50  

  • THE SPEECH --

    The Apologia has arrived and once again the self-indicting, separatist-racist Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama, promises to heal the wounds of the world. The speech is the rude awakening of mass messianism of his campaign. Apologetically, Obama the MUSLIM double-cross X-boX-BorraX has an astonishingly empty two-prawn echelon explanation of his misjudgment.
    In the first prawn: with regard to his connection to separatist-racist Rev. Wright; Obama summons voodoo and juju to express slavery as beginning and ending with the Rev. Wright.
    In the second prawn: Obama's speech takes credit for Ashley's dream. A dream of unity Martin Luther King, Jr. borrowed from Ashley for his historic "I Have A Dream" speech. In Obama's speech, the connective bond Ashley, the elderly black man and Obama's grandmother share; represents Obama's self-indicting rise to the Harvard Yard. For Obama, the grand flag of language is the semi-fore of words, bestowed upon our nation by the messiah-alumni from Harvard. Obama's Swoon-Song Apologia to the nation represents a failed hymn -- a hymn that fails to heal the nation, repair the world, or make this time different than all the rest. Obama's speech is a brilliant failure.

    http://www.halliburtonwatch.org/

    MUSLIM LIES --

    The ILLIGITIAMTE MUSLIM MESSIA has blundered yet again!!! The self-indicting, separatist-racist Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama, lied about the politics of his campaign. The danger involved with this self-aggrandizing, -a-hoop, Hope-A-Dope, Fonster Monster -- Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama is that -- "Like Father Like Son" Obama is constantly wanting to impress America with "...his incapacity for sound judgment." In 2005, Sen. Obama voted for the Dick Cheney energy bill, which Cheney wrote in secret with the oil industry. Hillary Clinton opposed Cheney's energy bill, has a plan to eliminate oil industry tax breaks, and would require oil companies to contribute to a $50 billion strategic energy fund to jump-start research and investment in clean energy technologies. On top of the horrible crime Obama executed in Harlem, the fact is, we have to hear it from Karl Rove about Obama's latest Campaign Crisis: "GLORK" Top Ten Obama Lies:

    1. Obam said his parents met at the Selma march -- Reality: He was born 4 years before that.

    2. Obam said he was a constitutional law professor -- Reality: . . . Obama Made This False Claim In His 2004 Senate Race. “Several direct-mail pieces issued for Obama's primary [Senate] campaign said he was a law professor at the University of Chicago. He is not. He is a senior lecturer (now on leave) at the school..

    3. Obam said he spoke fluent Indonesian as a child -- Reality: . . . Obama has claimed on numerous occasions to have become fluent in Indonesian in six months. Yet another Phi Beta Krakatau lie from Obama. Those who knew him disputed that during recent interviews. Israel la Pareira Darmawan, Obama's 1st-grade teacher, said she attempted to help him learn the Indonesian language by going over pronunciation and vowel sounds. Truth-be-told: Obama's Indonesian teachers say Kaku-Pooh.

    4. Obam said he was involved in community asbestos and housing project for the poor -- Reality: Didn't happen. This was the basis for Barack and Michelle's claim, that he was a community activist on the South and East Side of Chicago. Usher United Arab Emirates (UAE) A+ lie both he and his twenty-four (24) mule-team, Hus-suey loving wife Michelle Obama have been claiming in the campaign -- Reality: The Chicago Newspaper's Obelus -- Kiss-A-Cuss:...NO-MAMA.

    5. Obam said in his book that he received his racial awakening at age nine reading a Life/Ebony Magazine story about a black man who was scarred trying to dye his skin white -- Reality: Didn't happen. Both Magazines (Life and Ebony), and the Rev. Wright and Farrakhan MUSLIM Trumpet Newsmagazine say, just didn't happen.

    6. Obam’s Campaign Didn’t Have The “Technical Capacity” To Produce The “1984” Ad:

    Obama: “But it's not something that we had anything to do with or were aware of and that frankly, given what it looks like, we don't have the technical capacity to create something like that.” (CNN’s “Larry King Live,” 3/24/07) -- Reality:...The Creator Admitted All It Took Was A “Sunday Afternoon” On His Mac. Phillip de Vellis: “I made the ad on a Sunday afternoon in my apartment using my personal equipment (a Mac and some software), uploaded it to YouTube, and sent links around to blogs.”

    7. Obam’s Campaign Claimed His High School Friend Tried To Extort Money From Them:

    “According To The Obama Campaign, [Obama’s Punahou Classmate Keith] Kakugawa Explicitly Raised The Possibility That He Could Make Up False Stories About Obama, Implying He Would Do So If The Campaign Did Not Give Him Money.” (Maurice Possley, Kirsten Scharnberg and Ray Gibson, -- Reality: “...An Old Friend's Troublesome Return,” Chicago Tribune, 3/25/07).

    8. Obam voted to bring low-cost foreign labor into New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina -- Reality:...This was a slap in the face against the African-Americans who were displaced in that city. Obama also voted to place Michael Chertoff, the man responsible for the Katrina catastrophe, in charge of Homeland Security. Obama voted for Senate-Bills that gave Blackwater the funding they needed to shoot the folks of New Orleans who were only trying to save their own lives. The towel head voted to allow Michael Chertoff to waive all applicable laws, including murder, torture, kidnaping, and he suppoted water-boarding.

    9. Obam voted more than five times for USA-PATRIOT ACT renewal -- Reality:...This is a Senate-Bill patently offensive to most Americans. City after city has passed resolutions condemning USA-PATRIOT ACT. Obama chose to side with tyranny over freedom and Bush over the folks on this issue. The Real ID Act, which would allow Michael Chertoff to declare martial law and imprison Americans, was supported by Obama, as noted above.

    10. Obam is not a MAD MAN. Senator Obama Is not involved along with Antoin “Tony” Rezco, long time friend and neighbor, now-indicted businessman (TONY REZKO), or Tony Rezko and a onetime Chicago cop, Daniel T. Frawley. Senator Obama is not involved in any nuclear security, bribery, money payoffs, or cronyism in the state of Illinois; or criminal activities related to the BIG HALIBURTAN and V.P. Cheney's Halliburton bribery case; or any political misjudgment in his escalating campaign crisis. "GLORK" Senator Obama is not a self-indicting thief plagiarizing pipsqueke Xerox - X box. Obama executed no crime in Harlem. Obama is Not America's Poison -- Reality:...He's Radio-Active.

    http://www.halliburtonwatch.org/


    SOULJAH JIHAD -- OBAMA CAMPAIGN CRISIS

    The Republicans' disengagement (media bias), if not disillusionment, with the economic campaign issues is borne out by the fact that many more Republicans are able to explain, extinguish, and excoriate the name Barrack Obama with the term (JIHAD), than can name Bush/Dick Cheney and McCain -- as the Big Oil -- BIG HALLIBURTAN politicians expanding GOP IRAQ WAR ideology, and Republican White House Party Elders' GI Bill of Rights for the 21st century IRAQ WAR ECONOMY. Even among Republicans, Clinton is much more visible than GOP presumptive candidate John McCain towards affecting positively the important economic issues facing America's middle class economy.

    When asked who they would vote for in the general election for president of the United States, the natural pendulum swing in America is 79% of Republicans named Hillary Clinton as their choice. Reasons for Obama's Campaign Crisis "GLORK" Campaign Crisis include:

    "Obama has more holes in him than Swiss-Cheese." (CNN’s “Politics.com,” 4/01/08)

    Obama's presidential campaign has received $2,812,336 from firms that employ registered federal lobbyists. [fec.gov]

    Obama has taken $405,747 from the Pharmaceutical industry. [opensecrets.org]

    Obama has received $1,185,937 from the Commercial Banking industry. [opensecrets.org]

    Obama has received over six million dollars from the Securities & Investment industry. [opensecrets.org]

    Obama has taken $608,822 from the Insurance industry. [opensecrets.org]

    Obam has taken $168,584 from the Mortgage Banking industry. [opensecrets.org]


    "GLORK" SOULJAH JIHAD -- CAMPAIGN CRISIS
    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3369102968312745410&q=Fitna&total=1413&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=5

    WASHINGTON — Obama’s support among Democrats nationally has softened.

    "GLORK" Sen. Barack Obama’s support among Democrats nationally has softened over the last month, particularly among men and upper-income voters, as voters have taken a slightly less positive view of him than they did after his burst of victories in February, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

    The survey suggests that Mr. Obama, Democrat of Illinois, may have been at something of a peak in February, propelled by a string of primary and caucus victories over Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, and that perceptions of him are dramatically trending downward.

    Mr. Obama’s favorability rating among Democratic primary voters has dropped seventeen percentage points, to 42 percent, since the last Times/CBS News survey, in late February. While that figure is steadily declining, this dramatic decline came in a month during which he endured withering attacks from Mrs. Clinton and responded to reports that his former pastor had made politically inflammatory statements from his church’s pulpit in Chicago, and swirling questions about what Barack Obama did in Harlem.

    The events of the last month appear to have fundamentally altered the race for the party’s nomination and provided what Mrs. Clinton’s campaign has been seeking: evidence of a collapse in Mr. Obama’s standing or an overwhelming preference voiced for Mrs. Clinton by Democratic and Republican voters in polls: -- developments in Obama's ongoing Campaign Crisis, that could be used to persuade uncommitted super-delegates to sign on with Hillary Clinton.

    Twenty-six percent of the general electorate voters who heard of the Apologia speech that Mr. Obama the self-indicting, separatist-racist Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama gave to try to deal with the controversy over Obama's separatist-racist connection to Farrakhan and Chicago's Trinity United Church trumpeting Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama as the second coming of the messiah, said it made them dislike him. And 74 percent of Democrats and Republicans said Mr. Obama's Campaign Crisis "GLORK" Campaign Crisis stems from the fact that he shows continued misjudgment for even the most challenging problems. Mr. Obama lacks the decisive capability to lead, willingness to listen, conviction and courage. Mr. Obama uses false charges and exaggerated claims to play politics with national security. Mr. Obama lied about the politics of his campaign, and knew about Rev. Wright's MUSLIM Farrakhan - JIHADI -- FATIMA EXTREMIST mob connection to Chicago's Trinity United Church of Christ.

    http://www.halliburtonwatch.org/

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 09 April, 2008 22:00  

  • Obama’s efforts to connect to the Republican Party, specifically Bush, and Dick Cheney, of the Halliburton Company, dates back to the Presidents Grandfather, Prescott Bush, and indeed Cheney was once an executive officer of Halliburton.

    The American military pounds Iraq with Artillary, bombs, and the like, destroying large sections of cities, and infra-structures, then Halliburton comes in to rebuild. Halliburton and Halliburton associated companies have raked in ten’s of billions.

    Obama is just like the BIG HALIBURTAN. Haliburton has contracted to build detention centers in the U.S. similiar to the one in Quantanammo Bay, Cuba. Halliburton does nothing to earn the Two Dollars for each meal an American Serviceman in Iraq eats.

    http://www.halliburtonwatch.org/

    Halliburton was scheduled to take control of the Dubai Ports in The United Arab Emiirate. The deal was canceled when Bush was unable to affect the transfer of the American Ports.

    Now we see what some might suspect as similiar financial escapading from the Democrats.

    Two years ago, Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity gave a $50 million contract to a start-up security company - Companion- owned by now-indicted businessman (TONY REZKO) Tony Rezko and a onetime Chicago cop, Daniel T. Frawley, to train Iraqi power-plant guards in the United States. An Iraqi leadership change left the deal in limbo. Now the company, Companion Security, is working to revive its contract.
    Involved along with Antoin “Tony” Rezco, long time friend and neighbor of Democratic Presidential hopeful Barack Obama, and former cop Daniel T. Frawley, is Aiham Alsammarae. Alsammarae was accused of financial corruption by Iraqi authorities and jailed in Iraq last year before escaping and returning here.

    LIKE FATHER LIKE SON --
    Recently, Obama's campaign staff have been vetted by the IRS to disclose his connection to the criminal money generating underworld. Besides, his connections to the REZCO MAFIA types, his up-coming Tax Fraud charges — Obama needs to disclose why he is a MUSLIM "PATWANG-FWEEE" and disclose Obama's MUSLIM Farrakhan mob connection to Chicago's Trinity United Church of Christ. Its minister, and Obama's spiritual adviser, is the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. In 1982, the church launched Trumpet Newsmagazine; Wright's daughters serve as publisher and executive editor. Every year, the magazine makes awards in various categories. Last year, it gave the Dr. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. Trumpeter Award to a man it said "truly epitomized greatness." That man is Louis Farrakhan. Farrakhan and Chicago's Trinity United Church are trumpeting Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama as the second coming of the messiah. Obama should stop suppoting our intervention in IRAQ. It’s time to introduce this false, fake Xerox - X box Obama and invite the self-indicting thief plagiarizing pipsqueke "GLORK" Xerox - X box to meet the Buffalo "GAZOWNT-GAZIKKA" Police Department Buffalo Creek. He is MAD!!! --

    OBAM YOU'RE NO JFK --

    "GLORK" Obama looks like Alfred E. Newman: "Tales Calculated To Drive You." He is a MUSLIM "Glork" He's MAD!!! Alfred E. Neuman is the fictional mascot of Mad. The face had drifted through American pictography for decades before being claimed by Mad editor Harvey Kurtzman after he spotted it on the bulletin board in the office of Ballantine Books editor Bernard Shir-Cliff, later a contributor to various magazines created by Kurtzman.
    Obama needs to disclose why he is a MUSLIM "PATWANG-FWEEE" and stop suppoting our intervention in IRAQ. It’s time to introduce this false, fake "GLORK" Xerox - X box Obama and invite the self-indicting thief plagiarizing pipsqueke Xerox - X box to meet the Buffalo "GAZOWNT-GAZIKKA" Police Department Buffalo Creek.

    Michelle Obama should be ashamed.

    "GLORK" Michelle Obama should be ashamed of her separatist-racist connection to Farrakhan and Chicago's Trinity United Church trumpeting Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama as the second coming of the messiah. Beneath that Darth-Vader-Mace-Windu-Jedi-Me ssiah Helmet Hairdo of Michelle Obama lurks a Wildabeast. If Michelle Obama new what her husband -- the Hope-A-Dope, Fonster Monster -- Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama did in Harlem, she would wash her wide-open, Hus-suey loving MUSILM mouth out, with twenty-four (24) mule-team double-cross X-boX-BorraX. The Lexis-Nexis-Albatross-Abacus-Complex of Barack and Michelle's relationship with MUSLIM "PATWANG-FWEEE" Rev. Wright, Louis Farrakhan, and black demagoguery of Obama's Stump Lines Echo Malcolm X; is about as much of a Hoax as Oxfam volunteers believe in HIV-- AIDS Witch Doctors in Africa they feed.
    "God damn America" - Jeremiah Wright and Barack Obama.
    "God bless America" - Pope Benedict XVI and Hillary Clinton --
    If Barack Obama had married Shaniqua instead of the leftist-separatist, racist-beast-'ist Michelle, his jackanapes' excitedly-fixed-elitism, Nemet-oure-Saxas-Our-Father-Our-King -- black rage, and "GLORK" black demagoguery of Obama's Stump Lines Echo Malcolm X; would be taken a lot more expeditiously. Expectations are that Obama will manage his explosive MUSLIM JIHADI -- FATIMA EXTREMISM obsession bitter. He is a MUSLIM "Glork" It’s time to introduce this false, fake "GLORK" Xerox - X box Obama and invite the self-indicting thief plagiarizing pipsqueke Xerox - X box to meet the Buffalo "GAZOWNT-GAZIKKA" Police Department Buffalo Creek. He's MAD!!!

    http://www.halliburtonwatch.org/

    THE SPEECH --

    The Apologia has arrived and once again the self-indicting, separatist-racist Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama, promises to heal the wounds of the world. The speech is the rude awakening of mass messianism of his campaign. Apologetically, Obama the MUSLIM double-cross X-boX-BorraX has an astonishingly empty two-prawn echelon explanation of his misjudgment.
    In the first prawn: with regard to his connection to separatist-racist Rev. Wright; Obama summons voodoo and juju to express slavery as beginning and ending with the Rev. Wright.
    In the second prawn: Obama's speech takes credit for Ashley's dream. A dream of unity Martin Luther King, Jr. borrowed from Ashley for his historic "I Have A Dream" speech. In Obama's speech, the connective bond Ashley, the elderly black man and Obama's grandmother share; represents Obama's self-indicting rise to the Harvard Yard. For Obama, the grand flag of language is the semi-fore of words, bestowed upon our nation by the messiah-alumni from Harvard. Obama's Swoon-Song Apologia to the nation represents a failed hymn -- a hymn that fails to heal the nation, repair the world, or make this time different than all the rest. Obama's speech is a brilliant failure.

    http://www.halliburtonwatch.org/

    MUSLIM LIES --

    The ILLIGITIAMTE MUSLIM MESSIA has blundered yet again!!! The self-indicting, separatist-racist Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama, lied about the politics of his campaign. The danger involved with this self-aggrandizing, -a-hoop, Hope-A-Dope, Fonster Monster -- Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama is that -- "Like Father Like Son" Obama is constantly wanting to impress America with "...his incapacity for sound judgment." In 2005, Sen. Obama voted for the Dick Cheney energy bill, which Cheney wrote in secret with the oil industry. Hillary Clinton opposed Cheney's energy bill, has a plan to eliminate oil industry tax breaks, and would require oil companies to contribute to a $50 billion strategic energy fund to jump-start research and investment in clean energy technologies. On top of the horrible crime Obama executed in Harlem, the fact is, we have to hear it from Karl Rove about Obama's latest Campaign Crisis.

    "GLORK" Top Ten Obama Lies:

    1. Obam said his parents met at the Selma march -- Reality: He was born 4 years before that.

    2. Obam said he was a constitutional law professor -- Reality: . . . Obama Made This False Claim In His 2004 Senate Race. “Several direct-mail pieces issued for Obama's primary [Senate] campaign said he was a law professor at the University of Chicago. He is not. He is a senior lecturer (now on leave) at the school..

    3. Obam said he spoke fluent Indonesian as a child -- Reality: . . . Obama has claimed on numerous occasions to have become fluent in Indonesian in six months. Yet another Phi Beta Krakatau lie from Obama. Those who knew him disputed that during recent interviews. Israel la Pareira Darmawan, Obama's 1st-grade teacher, said she attempted to help him learn the Indonesian language by going over pronunciation and vowel sounds. Truth-be-told: Obama's Indonesian teachers say Kaku-Pooh.

    4. Obam said he was involved in community asbestos and housing project for the poor -- Reality: . . . Didn't happen. This was the basis for Barack and Michelle's claim, that he was a community activist on the South and East Side of Chicago. Usher United Arab Emirates (UAE) A+ lie both he and his twenty-four (24) mule-team, Hus-suey loving wife Michelle Obama have been claiming in the campaign -- Reality: The Chicago Newspaper's Obelus -- Kiss-A-Cuss:...NO-MAMA.

    5. Obam said in his book that he received his racial awakening at age nine reading a Life/Ebony Magazine story about a black man who was scarred trying to dye his skin white -- Reality: . . . Didn't happen. Both Magazines (Life and Ebony), and the Rev. Wright and Farrakhan MUSLIM Trumpet Newsmagazine say, just didn't happen.

    6. Obam’s Campaign Didn’t Have The “Technical Capacity” To Produce The “1984” Ad:

    Obama: “But it's not something that we had anything to do with or were aware of and that frankly, given what it looks like, we don't have the technical capacity to create something like that.” (CNN’s “Larry King Live,” 3/24/07) -- Reality:...The Creator Admitted All It Took Was A “Sunday Afternoon” On His Mac. Phillip de Vellis: “I made the ad on a Sunday afternoon in my apartment using my personal equipment (a Mac and some software), uploaded it to YouTube, and sent links around to blogs.”

    7. Obam’s Campaign Claimed His High School Friend Tried To Extort Money From Them:

    “According To The Obama Campaign, [Obama’s Punahou Classmate Keith] Kakugawa Explicitly Raised The Possibility That He Could Make Up False Stories About Obama, Implying He Would Do So If The Campaign Did Not Give Him Money.” (Maurice Possley, Kirsten Scharnberg and Ray Gibson, -- Reality: “...An Old Friend's Troublesome Return,” Chicago Tribune, 3/25/07).

    8. Obam voted to bring low-cost foreign labor into New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina -- Reality: . . . This was a slap in the face against the African-Americans who were displaced in that city. Obama also voted to place Michael Chertoff, the man responsible for the Katrina catastrophe, in charge of Homeland Security. Obama voted for Senate-Bills that gave Blackwater the funding they needed to shoot the folks of New Orleans who were only trying to save their own lives. Inextricably, the towel head voted to allow Michael Chertoff to waive all applicable laws, including murder, torture, kidnaping, and he suppoted water-boarding.

    9. Obam voted more than five times for USA-PATRIOT ACT renewal -- Reality: . . . This is a Senate-Bill patently offensive to most Americans. City after city has passed resolutions condemning USA-PATRIOT ACT. Passively or reflexively, Obama chose to side with tyranny over freedom and Bush over the folks on this issue. The Real ID Act, which would allow Michael Chertoff to declare martial law and imprison Americans, was supported by ex-patriot Obama, as noted above.

    10. Obam is not a MAD MAN. Sen. Obama has not exaggerated the disconnection with . . ."The Lord God, merciful and gracious, long-suffering, and abundant in goodness and truth" --Ex. xxxiv. 6; or extolled his vexatious- Vesuvius MUSLIM madrassahs'-faux-pas on us. Sen. Obama Is not involved along with Antoin “Tony” Rezco, long time friend and neighbor, now-indicted businessman (TONY REZKO); or Tony Rezko and a onetime Chicago cop, Daniel T. Frawley. Sen. Obama is not involved with, nor has Sen. Obama exhibited any nuclear security, bribery, money payoffs, or cronyism in the state of Illinois; or criminal activities related to the BIG HALIBURTAN and V.P. Cheney's Halliburton bribery case; or any political misjudgment in his escalating Campaign Crisis. Sen. Obama does not take money from people who hire lobbyists, partners of lobbyists, spouses of lobbyists, former lobbyists or state lobbyists. "GLORK" Sen. Obama Is not involved with any Hoax or Oxfam volunteers and HIV-- AIDS Witch Doctors in Africa they feed. Sen. Obama is not associated with Exiled "God damn America" SOULJAH JIHAD -- Rev. Jeremiah Wright, MUSLIM EXTREMIST (MalcolmX KillA) -- Louis Farrakhan, and black demagoguery; or Obama's Apologia-Mea Culpa; or Stump Lines Echo Malcolm X; Sen. Obama has not exulted the virtue of being an aggrieved black man. Sen. Obama does not accept political contributions from terrorists. Sen. Obama has not expressed the troublesome sub-text of the October Surprise: "X-Files" -- The 1980 election scandal exposed....the extraneous-demon-us-venomous anger-driven association between Obama and aging [VX] Vietnam-era Weather Underground Radical Terrorist William Ayers. Sen. Obama is not a separatist-racist. Michelle Obama AKA Wildabeast is not a liberal-leftist-sexist-racist. Sen. Obama is not a self-indicting thief plagiarizing pipsqueke Xerox - X box. "GLORK" Obama executed no crime in Harlem. Obama is Not America's Poison -- Reality:...He's Radio-Active.

    http://www.halliburtonwatch.org/


    SOULJAH JIHAD -- OBAMA CAMPAIGN CRISIS

    The Republicans' disengagement (media bias), if not disillusionment, with the economic campaign issues is borne out by the fact that many more Republicans are able to explain, extinguish, and excoriate the name Barrack Obama with the term (JIHAD), than can name Bush/Dick Cheney and McCain -- as the Big Oil -- BIG HALLIBURTAN politicians expanding GOP IRAQ WAR ideology, and Republican White House Party Elders' GI Bill of Rights for the 21st century IRAQ WAR ECONOMY. Even among Republicans, Clinton is much more visible than GOP presumptive candidate John McCain towards affecting positively the important economic issues facing America's middle class economy.

    When asked who they would vote for in the general election for president of the United States, the natural pendulum swing in America is 79% of Republicans named Hillary Clinton as their choice. Reasons for Obama's Campaign Crisis "GLORK" Campaign Crisis include:

    "Obama has more holes in him than Swiss-Cheese." (CNN’s “Politics.com,” 4/01/08)

    Obama's presidential campaign has received $2,812,336 from firms that employ registered federal lobbyists. [fec.gov]

    Obama has taken $405,747 from the Pharmaceutical industry. [opensecrets.org]

    Obama has received $1,185,937 from the Commercial Banking industry. [opensecrets.org]

    Obama has received over six million dollars from the Securities & Investment industry. [opensecrets.org]

    Obama has taken $608,822 from the Insurance industry. [opensecrets.org]

    Obam has taken $168,584 from the Mortgage Banking industry. [opensecrets.org]


    "GLORK" SOULJAH JIHAD -- CAMPAIGN CRISIS
    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3369102968312745410&q=Fitna&total=1413&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=5

    WASHINGTON — Obama’s support among Democrats nationally has softened.

    "GLORK" Sen. Barack Obama’s support among Democrats nationally has softened over the last month, particularly among men and upper-income voters, as voters have taken a slightly less positive view of him than they did after his burst of victories in February, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

    The survey suggests that Mr. Obama, Democrat of Illinois, may have been at something of a peak in February, propelled by a string of primary and caucus victories over Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, and that perceptions of him are dramatically trending downward.

    Mr. Obama’s favorability rating among Democratic primary voters has dropped seventeen percentage points, to 42 percent, since the last Times/CBS News survey, in late February. While that figure is steadily declining, this dramatic decline came in a month during which he endured withering attacks from Mrs. Clinton, and responded to reports that his exiled former pastor had made politically inflammatory statements from his church’s pulpit in Chicago, and swirling questions about what Barack Obama did in Harlem -- from which he cannot extricate himself.

    The events of the last month appear to have fundamentally altered the race for the party’s nomination and provided Mrs. Clinton’s campaign extensive evidence of a collapse in Mr. Obama’s standing or an overwhelming preference voiced for Mrs. Clinton by Democratic and Republican voters in polls: -- perplexing developments in Obama's ongoing Campaign Crisis, that could be used to persuade uncommitted super-delegates to sign on with Hillary Clinton.

    Twenty-six percent of the general electorate voters who heard of the Apologia speech that Mr. Obama the self-indicting, separatist-racist Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama gave to try to deal with the controversy over Obama's separatist-racist connection to Farrakhan and Chicago's Trinity United Church trumpeting Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama as the second coming of the messiah, said it made them dislike him. And 74 percent of Democrats and Republicans said Mr. Obama's Campaign Crisis "GLORK" Campaign Crisis "God damn America" - Jeremiah Wright and Barack Obama. "God bless America" - Pope Benedict XVI and Hillary Clinton....stems from the fact that he shows continued misjudgment for even the most challenging problems. Next, the overall opinion of people in the news this year; Mr. Obama lacks the decisive capability to lead, willingness to listen, conviction and courage. Mr. Obama is no Alexander Manly when it comes to sexist-racist issues, and he uses false charges and exaggerated hate-the Saxon-race claims to play politics with national security.

    For a United States Senator, Barack Obama has been doing a lot of explaining about the company he has kept for the last 17 years or so. A politician can not chose the family he has. However; he can chose the pastor he keeps. The Rev. Jeremiah Wright has influenced Mr. Obama's liberal-elitist-separatist-racist views on a variety of subjects. This may be what happened to Obama over the years, as his MUSLIM radicalism and demonize the White-Saxon-race, may expel the same Rev. Wright belief; that America and its US allies brought on 9/11. In a sincere re-examination of his world-view, Obama's Mea Culpa-Apologia says this guy is like an uncle to him. But shouldn’t his long term relationship with this despicable character call into question at the very least Obama’s judgment? From Waxahache, TX, to Axis-of-Evil, Mr. Obama lied about the politics of his campaign, and knew about Rev. Wright's MUSLIM Militant Farrakhan Malcolm X Mosque No. 7 - JIHADI -- FATIMA EXTREMIST mob connection to Chicago's Trinity United Church of Christ.

    http://www.halliburtonwatch.org/


    Colfax: Sen. Obama on Lobbyists --

    "When it comes to lobbyists, Senator Obama’s words might sound nice but voters need to make sure they read the fine print. Despite trying to give the impression that he has no relationship with lobbyists or special interests, the reality is that Senator Obama takes money from people who hire lobbyists, partners of lobbyists, spouses of lobbyists, former lobbyists and state lobbyists.” –Statement from Clinton Deputy Communications Director, Phil Singer
    Sen. Obama Has Ties to Lobbyists in His Presidential Bid

    Public Citizen: 10 of Sen. Obama's bundlers have been federal lobbyists. The Public Citizen report listed the following ten bundlers for Sen. Obama who have registered as federal lobbyists: Frank Clark, Commonwealth Edison; Scott Harris, Harris Wiltshire and Grannis; Allan J. Katz, Akerman Senterfitt; Robert S. Litt, Arnold & Porter; Thomas J. Perrelli, Jenner and Block; Thomas A. Reed, Kirkpatrick & Lockhart Preston Gates Ellis LLP; Paul N. Roth, Schulte Roth & Zabel; Miriam Sapiro, Summit Strategies; Alan Solomont, Solomont Bailis Ventures; and Tom E. Wheeler, Core Capital Partners. [Public Citizen, 1/29/08]

    Sen. Obama takes money from employees of firms that lobby and has lobbyists as advisers. "But those who lobby for a living say it's not that simple, and even Obama's stance shows some flexibility. He won't take money from federal lobbyists but accepts money from employees of firms and corporations that lobby, and he uses lobbyists and other government relations professionals as advisers... Obama has also used major fundraisers who are registered lobbyists on the state level. And he uses registered federal lobbyists such as Broderick Johnson, who lobbies for AT&T and Shell Oil, among others, as a campaign adviser. Because Johnson isn't giving money to Obama, his name won't show up in Federal Election Commission records." [Chicago Tribune, 2/10/08]

    Bloomberg: Five of [Obama’s] ten biggest sources of funds are groups of employees at law firms that lobby in Washington. "While Obama doesn't accept money from registered federal lobbyists, five of his 10 biggest sources of funds are groups of employees at law firms that lobby in Washington…Among Obama's top donors were employees of the Chicago-based law firm of Sidley Austin LLP, who gave $105,750 in the first quarter. The firm was paid $4.5 million last year" for lobbying the federal government. [Bloomberg, 6/7/07]

    Obama's presidential campaign has received $2,812,336 from firms that employ registered federal lobbyists. [fec.gov]

    Obama has taken $405,747 from the Pharmaceutical industry. [opensecrets.org]

    Obama has received $1,185,937 from the Commercial Banking industry. [opensecrets.org]

    Obama has received over six million dollars from the Securities & Investment industry. [opensecrets.org]

    Obama has taken $608,822 from the Insurance industry. [opensecrets.org]

    Obama has taken $168,584 from the Mortgage Banking industry. [opensecrets.org]

    Prior to His Presidential Campaign, Sen. Obama took Money from Lobbyists and PACs

    1996-2004: $296,000 of the $461,000 Sen. Obama raised as a state senator came from PACs, corporate contributions or unions. "But behind Obama's campaign rhetoric about taking on special interests lies a more complicated truth. A Globe review of Obama's campaign finance records shows that he collected hundreds of thousands of dollars from lobbyists and PACs as a state legislator in Illinois, a US senator, and a presidential aspirant. In Obama's eight years in the Illinois Senate, from 1996 to 2004, almost two-thirds of the money he raised for his campaigns -- $296,000 of $461,000 -- came from PACs, corporate contributions, or unions, according to Illinois Board of Elections records. He tapped financial services firms, real estate developers, healthcare providers, oil companies, and many other corporate interests, the records show." [Boston Globe, 8/9/07]

    In his 2004 U.S. Senate race, Sen. Obama raised $128,000 from lobbyists and $1.3 million from PACs. "Obama's US Senate campaign committee, starting with his successful run in 2004, has collected $128,000 from lobbyists and $1.3 million from PACs, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonprofit organization that tracks money in politics. His $1.3 million from PACs represents 8 percent of what he has raised overall." [Boston Globe, 8/9/07]

    http://www.halliburtonwatch.org/

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 24 April, 2008 15:11  

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