John Kerry breaks his silence, endorses Obama (and a new SC poll!)

John Kerry has jumped on the Obama bandwagon, confirming a bit more the campaign's transition away from its insurgent tones, very much like Howard Dean's wave of late fall endorsements in 2004. This is not to say that Obama is now about to collapse, but that this is evident of a change in the race: Democrats like Al Gore and John Kerry have been said to want to endorse Obama for a long time but to be holding back because they did not want to stand in the way of Hillary Clinton the inevitable nominee. (Update: Senator Tim Johnson of South Dakota also endorsed Obama today, confirming reports that Democratic Senators have been looking to get involved with Barack since his Iowa win.)

It is doubtful Kerry will bring too many votes to Obama, but his support still has significant benefits. Clinton has been working to portray herself as the natural heir to the Democratic leadership, the inevitable candidate who is marching towards a coronation with the support of her party. Obama is trying to create a movement that will carry him to the nomination, but to do that he needs to appear viable and get Democrats to rally behind him because they are afraid to miss their chance to "make history."

Figures like Kerry are not the kind of Democrats who typically trumpet themselves as out-of-the-beltway insurgents, and at this time Obama has to reassure voters and donors that he can go all the way, that he has the experience and the respect of establishment types who will help him rather than stand on his way and promote Hillary Clinton. Does this now mean that we can expect similar moves from Al Gore and possibly from Ted Kennedy (Kennedy's relationship with Clinton is stronger than Kerry's, so there is still some doubt as to what might happen there)?

The endorsement also has a very practical benefit: Kerry is going to put his e-mail list at Obama's disposal, and that list, inherited from 2004 and which contains millions of names, was the pride of the Kerry camp and one of the reasons he was optimistic about a possible 2008 run.

One final thought on the Kerry endorsement: Some of the press is likely to cover this as a blow to Edwards at a time Obama would love to get some of Edwards's votes; obviously that would be unfair given that Kerry and Edwards were never friends or close and that their joint campaign in 2004 ended up being very tense until its last moments, but the symbol is obviously powerful.

Meanwhile, back on the trail, Rasmussen released a new poll from South Carolina, taken entirely post-New Hampshire. Obama maintains his lead from a few days ago, so no bounce or movement at all for Clinton who still trails her rival:

• Obama gets 42% to Clinton's 30% and Edwards's 15%.

I believe Rasmussen did not supply the breakdown of the African-American vote which is truly the test going forward into this election. The black vote has massively moved towards Obama over the past three-four weeks and that will make it very hard for Clinton to even move close here unless she finds a way to start reversing that trend.