Setting the expectations: We will have a whole different race by tomorrow morning

New Hampshire is upon us, and its a much quieter election day than last Thursday. There are no secret deals between candidates (by the way, Richardson is still denying that he made any deal, while most evidence points to the contrary). Not to mention that the election itself feels rather anti-climactic, at least on the Democratic race. After all the excitement and suspense that preceded the caucuses last week, there is now a sense that the Democratic contest got wrapped-up faster than anyone expected and before we had any chance to get into an election rhythm. Just as last Thursday, I will refrain from offering set predictions, though I would like to point out that the one prediction I did before Iowa -- that Ron Paul would defeat Giuliani -- was vindicated in dramatic fashion. But I will offer a few guidelines for what to look for tonight and what the expectations are a few hours from the results.

Democrats, first place: Hillary Clinton led big in New Hampshire for most of the year and if she had managed to maintain even a consistent double-digit lead going into today she would probably have managed to keep some of it. But her lead was already down to low single-digit and Obama has gotten a massive bounce in the space of a few days. He is clearly favored going into the primary and most polls show him leading by double-digits. Given the state of disarray in the Clinton campaign these past few days, a double-digits defeat would unsettle her even more and lead to a staff shake-up (Update: Begala and Carville deny they will join the campaign).

Yet Clinton supporters should not be too depressed yet. First of all, the latest polls are showing that the race seems to have stabilized, and both Rasmussen and ARG show that Clinton might be slightly coming back. Naturally, Clinton's number one problem has been that 5 days between Iowa and New Hampshire leaves her no time to fight back, and that a bounce like the one Obama has gotten naturally erodes by itself to some degree -- but in a bit more than five days. A Clinton victory tonight is still possible, and it would (justifiably) be treated as a huge come-back.

But what effect would a smaller-than-expected defeat have on the Clinton campaign? Say, if she loses by 3 to 4% ? She would definitely claim victory (the "comeback kid" redux) and given the Obama campaign's hopes of effectively winning the nomination tonight (and even perhaps forcing Clinton out prematurely) that would surely be a huge disappointment for them. The media has been setting up a Clinton is dead storyline for days, so a tight finish like that, while certainly hurting Clinton further, would certainly give her some sort of morale boost and make her continue the fight.

Democrats, rest of the field: It would be a humongous stunner if Edwards gets second or if Richardson gets third position. Polls show that the former is not at all in the fight for the top positions, and it's been a long time since Richardson broke double-digits. And remember that Edwards's argument over the past few days has been a constant insistance that Clinton's third-place Iowa position eliminated her. How will that play out in the coming days after Edwards gets third-place here?

Republicans, first place: Hard to figure out what is going on in the Romney-McCain showdown. McCain has been ahead in the polls rather consistently since early last week, but Romney did not fall at all post-Iowa. Quite the contrary, polls taken over the week-end and on Monday appear to register a small Romney come-back. That should at least insure that Romney does not fall too far behind tonight -- and he is still very much in the lead. The media has been presenting McCain as the overwhelming favorite when, truth is, his position looks much more fragile than Obama's -- and the expectation game is clearly favoring Romney. A Romney victory would be a huge boost and he would have to be consider a strong favorite -- not to mention that it would probably eliminate McCain. A McCain victory would make the AZ Senator the national front-runner, but I am now doubting that Romney would be as screwed as the CW dictated a week ago.

Republicans, rest of the race: Lots of questions here -- and the tightest race of the night could be that for GOP third-placer. Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul could all score third-place and it's almost impossible to predict their order. As in Iowa, Iook for a strong Ron Paul showing tonight as polls probably understate his support. Third-place for either Giuliani or Huckabee could be a boost for their campaigns; it could also be a great (and quite unexpected) way for Rudy to be part of the story-line a week after his sixth-place in Iowa. Another question: How low will Thompson sink? If by some miracle any of the other candidates go below him, it could prove pretty humiliating for them.