1.07.2008

Rounding up New Hampshire polls: 6 surveys released this morning

It seems like a new poll from New Hampshire is being released every minute and pulling them all together is starting to feel like a full-time job. But with one day to go before the primary, these polls are clearly crucial to knowing where things are heading. They were taken over the week-end, and there is no indication that Clinton has come-back at all.

Let's start things off with thenon-tracking polls, for example with Marist taken Saturday and Saturday:

  • Among Democrats, Obama is ahead 36% to 28%, with Edwards at 22%. A month ago, it was 37% to 24% in Clinon's favor. Clinton leads among registered Democrats, and Obama among independents.
  • Among Republicans, McCain is up 35% to 31% with Huckabee at 13%, Ron Paul at 85 and Rudy Giuliani at 5%. A month ago, it was 31% for Romney and 18% each for McCain and Giuliani. In a counter-intuitive finding, McCain has no significant lead among independents who are voting roughly the same as Republicans.
Second, we get a Fox News poll which looks slightly better for Clinton:

  • Obama is up "only" 32% to 28%, with Edwards at 18% and Richardson at 6%.
  • Among Republicans, McCain gets 34% compared to Romney's 27% and Huckabee's 11%. Giuliani is only at 9%.
Franklin Pierce polled Friday to Sunday and they show a tight race as well:

  • Obama is up 34% to 31% with Edwards at 20%. And just look at how much Iowa has impacted things. 5 days ago, 48% said Clinton would win the nomination, and 21% said Obama. Today, 38% say Obama and 30% say Clinton, and that perception of momentum is clearly influencing the results.
  • Among Republicans, it's McCain up 38% to 29% with Huckabee at 9%.
And now, on to the three morning tracking-polls. Let's start with Zogby where this is only the first entirely post-Iowa sample... and that created some big changes:

  • Clinton was still up 31% to 30% yesterday. Today, Obama has shot up dramatically and is ahead 39% to 29% for Clinton and 19% for Edwards. In a tracking-poll, that is some huge movement. Clinton has kept her lead among women but trails narrowly among registered Democrats.
  • Among Republicans, McCain leads Romney 34% to 29% with Huckabee down 2% since yesterday at 10%.
Even Suffolk has abandonned Clinton! The group that showed the best numbers for Hillary for a few days now has Obama ahead... though only by 1%. The groupis also the only one that has Romney ahead so maybe they have a different model of independent turnout:

  • Among Democrats, it's Obama up 35% to 34% with Edwards at 15%.
  • Republican numbers have not moved at all, with Romney up 30% to 27% with Giuliani at 10% and Huckabee at 9%.
And finally, on to Rasmussen which gives us a VERY interesting finding: "McCain is losing ground to Obama which is causing him problems with Romney. On Friday, the Rasmussen Reports survey found that Independent voters were likely to make up 32% of the Republican Primary electorate. That dropped to 27% of Sunday." This is of course the big question going into tomorrow's voting. And if that holds, McCain could be in some trouble and Obama could nearly be unstoppable (how can Hillary beat him if 73% of independents are voting in the Dem race):

  • The poll has Romney climbing back into a tie, trailing only 32% to 31% with Huckabee at 11%.
  • Among Democrats, Obama is up 38% to 28% and he leads 2:1 among independents... keep that in mind when wondering what is going on.
The questions that will have to be answered tomorrow night (besides the victor and where independents vote):

(1) How low will Rudy Giuliani sink? He has no excuse here the way he did in Iowa. He ran a ton of ads and only stopped doing so a couple of weeks ago. Could he actually sink under Thompson?

(2) Will Hillary maintain her lead among registered Democrats? And if she does, how much does the campaign make use of that to diminish Obama's showing (think McCain-Bush in 2000)?

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3 Comments:

  • Independents are all going for Obama. Clinton could go very far down tomorrow.

    By Anonymous Ron, At 07 January, 2008 13:17  

  • HOW CAN ANYONE VOTE FOR OBAMA HUSSIN, WITH HIS BACKGROUND AND
    INEXPERIENCE, UNTESTED, WITH OUR
    FUTURES AND OUR CHILDRENS LIVES.
    HE SOUNDS LIKE THE I HAVE A DREAM
    TEAM.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 07 January, 2008 14:19  

  • BREAKING NEWS: More bad news for Hillary Clinton. Rasmussen Reports finds Obama leading Hillary 42%-30% in South Carolina!

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/south_carolina/election_2008_south_carolina_democratic_primary

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 07 January, 2008 16:47  

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