Evening polls: Iowa up for grabs with Clinton, Huckabee slightly ahead

Two new polls today from Iowa, one from each party:

  • Rasmussen has Democratic numbers: Hillary is ahead with 31%, with Obama at 27% and Edwards at 22%. Among those who are "certain" to participate, it's Clinton at 29%, Obama at 28% and Edwards at 22%.
  • As always, second-choice looks good forEdwards, picked by 28% versus 22% for Obama and Clinton at 15%.

  • The Washington Post/ABC poll of the GOP field has Huckabee ahead of Romney 35% to 27%, with everyone else in single-digits: Thompson has at 9%, Giuliani and Ron Paul at 8%, and McCain at 6%.
We've had three polls of Iowa in 24 hours, and three different leaders in the Democratic race -- underscoring the fact that the race is completly tied up 16 days from Iowa. On the GOP race, it was Huck up thee times -- but not by a lot, and his lead no longer looks all mighty.

  • Dole vulnerable in North Carolina
A new Research 2000 poll of the North Senate race has worrisome news for Elizabeth Dole, who looks particularly vulnerable:

  • She leads state Senator Kay Hagan 46% to 39%, and banker Jim Neal 47% to 37%.
Any incumbent under 50% is in danger -- especially when her lead is in the single-digits against an unknown opponent. A PPP poll released earlier in the week had Dole leading with a slightly bigger margin -- but still in the danger zone.

With numbers like this, Democrats have to regret they did not manage to get a better-known Democrat in the race, or entice either the Lieutenant Governor or the Attorney General out of the gubernatorial race and into the senatorial race. But with the DSCC failing to get its top recruits in Nebraska and Kentucky, they will likely pay more attention to North Carolina, which makes Elizabeth Dole much more endangered than she was a few weeks ago.

  • SUSA polls NM, OR, and WA
Survey USA came out with some of its frequent general election polls this evening: Oregon and Washington are firmly leaning Democratic, and New Mexico looks as all over the place as it was in the past two presidential cycles.

  • First up, New Mexico, Clinton leads Rudy 49-46, Romney 50-44, Huckabee 49-45, while McCain is ahead 48-45.
  • Obama trails all Republicans, though within the margin of error: 49-44 against Rudy, 46-44 against Romney, 46-45 against Huckabee, and 51-40 against McCain.

  • In Washington, Clinton is up by big margins: 52-43 against Giuliani, 55-41 against Romney, 54-41 against Huckabee, and she holds on 49-47 against McCain.
  • Obama demolishes all GOPers: 55-38 against Rudy, 57-35 against Romney, 55-37 against Huckabee, and 50-43 against McCain.

  • In Oregon, finally, Democrats are strong as well: Clinton leads Giuliani and Huckabee 50% to 42%, Romney 51% to 40%, and is tied with McCain at 46%. Obama is ahead of GIuliani 50-40, of Romney 50-38, 51-40 against Huckabee, 46-44 against McCain.
Washington and Oregon have been tight in previous cycles, but they are both definitely must-win states for the Democratic nominee. New Mexico was probably the tightest states over both 2000 and 2004, and it will likely be hotly be contested next year -- though it won't be a priority given it has only 5 electoral votes. But for Democrats who like to think that the West is drifting towards them, they definitely have to win states like New Mexico to strengthen their argument and advance their party in that region.

  • NBC's national numbers
NBC came out with a national poll, and it has the GOP race in a complete toss-up -- and Obama running better in the general election

  • In the GOP primary, Giuliani has lost its massive national lead: It's now tied at 20% between Giuliani and Romney, with Huckabee at 17% and mcCain at 14%, and Thompson at 11%. A month ago, Giuliani had a massive lead with 33%, with McCain at Romney at 11% and Huckabee at 8%... Would seem like a crazy outlier, only Giuliani's collapse is confirmed by most polls at this point.
  • In the general election, Clinton beats Rudy 46% to 43%, but Obama does much better, coming on top 49% to 40%. Against Huck, it's Clinton 46% to Huckabee's 44%, and here again Obama runs massively better, beating Huck 48% to 36%.

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