Morning polls: Clinton ties Republicans in North Carolina, leads in Washington

The polls were not as good as usual for Democrats yesterday (particularly in New Mexico), but two new state polls out this morning are a reminder of why Democrats are favored to take the White House next year.

The stunner is North Carolina, not the reddest of Southern state but one that Bush won comfortably with 56% in 2004. The last time a Democrat has carried the state was in 1976. But Rasmussen's numbers are good for Hillary Clinton:

• She trails Giuliani by a statstically insignificant point: 44-43%.
• She ties both Fred Thompson 44-44 and John McCain 43-43.
• Testifying to the fact that she can rise higher, she leads Mitt Romney 46-41.

Put this in the context of past polls that show Clinton doing much better than expected in the South. A poll of Tennessee, for example, showed her leading Giuliani, and there have been plenty of Virginia polls showing her ahead (here is the latest SUSA one). Clinton also makes Arkansas more than competitive (the one poll from there showed her with double-digits leads). It is obvious that if Republicans have to spend time defending NC, VA, or TN, they will have that much less time to devote to Ohio and Florida, and they won't have time at all to put blue states like NJ or WA on the map.

Meanwhile, SUSA came out with a new poll as well. Hillary Clinton leads all Republicans very comfortably in Washington, all except John McCain:

• McCain ties her, and comes out ahead by a point: 47-46.
• This is especially stunning considering no other GOP comes close: 50-43 against Giuliani, 52-42 against Thompson, 54-30 against Romney, 57-34 against Huckabee, and 55-39 against Ron Paul.

Last month, the SUSA polled a much closer Clinton-Giuliani match-up, so the Democrat confirms here that WA is leaning blue. But what is up with those McCain numbers, which confirm everything else we have seen over the past two weeks -- for example yesterday in New Mexico where he was the only one to beat Hillary comfortably, and ran 6 points ahead of Giuliani! McCain has truly recovered from his first-half-of-the-year collapse. He had lost his standing entirely with moderates and independents, but it appears he is now climbing back.